The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, May 12th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 12th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 12
Game 4: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
Game 4: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
I wish I had more actual sides and totals to give out, but it’s hard with motivation being baked into the numbers. Instead, I’ll stick to parlays until I see numbers that make more sense. And Monday, I’m going back to the same one that cashed on Saturday: Celtics moneyline and Timberwolves moneyline.
Forgive me for using a tennis phrase, but it’s clear that the Celtics-Knicks series is on Boston’s racquet. Through three games, the Celtics have a defensive rating of 101.4. They’re doing a good job of slowing down Jalen Brunson and Co., and it’s hard to see that changing with Karl-Anthony Towns banged up. So, even with Boston needing to win another game at Madison Square Garden, the Celtics should get the job done as long as they play a decent game offensively. And things were a lot better on that end of the floor in Game 3. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown showed up, combining for 41 points in the 22-point win. And they’re both capable of playing even better the rest of the series. Boston also shot 20 for 40 from behind the 3-point line after going 25 for 100 from deep in Games 1 and 2. The Celtics probably aren’t going to shoot 50% from 3 again, and the Knicks will likely shoot better than 20% from 3 themselves. But as long as Boston doesn’t go ice cold, the team should find a way.
While the late-game execution in Games 1 and 2 was astonishingly bad, the reality is that we’ve seen the Celtics build 20-point leads in all three games. That’s not a fluke. Boston is a much better basketball team than New York. And now that the Celtics are down in the series, there’s no room for them to mess around. That means the Knicks will need to be flawless in their execution in order to get back in the win column, and I don’t see that happening — especially with how good of a job Boston did defending Brunson in Game 3.
As for the other game, I just don’t have any faith in the Warriors coming up with enough offensively. Golden State has an offensive rating of 100.0 in the two games the team has played without Stephen Curry. For reference, Washington was the worst offensive team in the league in the regular season with an offensive rating of 105.8. With the Warriors going to work against an elite Timberwolves defense, it’s just hard to expect anything from Steve Kerr’s group. On Saturday, a lot of things broke right for Golden State, as Jimmy Butler had 33 points, Jonathan Kuminga had 30 and several Minnesota players got into foul trouble. Well, that still wasn’t enough. This time around, the Warriors won’t be as lucky. That’s especially true with the foul trouble. And if Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo can avoid picking up cheap fouls, the Timberwolves could roll here. In the postseason, Minnesota has an Efficiency Differential of +10.0 with those two and Anthony Edwards on the floor together. That’s thanks to the team scoring 120.8 points per 100 possessions in 80 possessions with those three together. In this specific series, those two players provide Edwards with the spacing he needs to relentlessly attack the rim. And while Reid lineups aren’t always great defensively, the Wolves don’t have to worry about that against the Curry-less Warriors.
PARLAY: Celtics ML & Timberwolves ML (+104 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 12
Game 4: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
Tatum didn’t play well offensively in the first two games in this series, but he had three stocks (steals + blocks) in Game 1 and four stocks in Game 2. So, even when Tatum didn’t have his A-game on offense, he was competing and giving his team everything on the other end of the floor. Well, Tatum snapped out of it offensively in Game 4, finishing with 22 points and knocking down five 3s. But you know what? He still had two steals in that game. So, no matter what we see out of Tatum on the offensive end, I feel good about him pitching in with steals and blocks in what is a must-win game for Boston. That’s why I’m taking Tatum to have at least two stocks at -140 odds. Tatum can be one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, and his combination of length and athleticism has been frustrating New York. I don’t see that changing in Game 4. Tatum is really good at playing passing lanes, and he’s good enough as an individual defender to strip the ball away or block a shot or two.
Pick: Tatum Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-140)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 410-419-2 (+7.11 units)
