The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, May 2nd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 2nd
NBA Best Bets Today – May 2
Game 6: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 9:00 pm ET
Heading into this series, I felt really good about what the Rockets would be able to do against the Warriors defensively. So far, Houston has been up to the task. While the Rockets are currently down 3-2 in the series, they have held Stephen Curry to 20 or fewer points in three of the last four games. Considering the rest of Golden State’s supporting cast is pretty unreliable, Houston will take that any day of the week. The issue with the Rockets is that they have issues getting good shots for themselves in half-court situations, which is why they’re linked to every star imaginable as we look ahead to the offseason. But over the last two games, Houston has figured some things out.
Over the last two contests, the Rockets have an offensive rating of 126.1, which is way up from their overall postseason mark of 112.7. A lot of that has to do with Fred VanVleet finding a rhythm. VanVleet shot 6 for 29 from 3 in the first three games in this series, but he’s 12 for 18 over the last two games. Obviously, it’s not fair to expect VanVleet to continue to shoot 66.7% from 3 the rest of the series. But this is an entirely different offense when he’s just decent from behind the 3-point line. Houston is also getting a lot more out of Alperen Sengun, who has found his way as a low-post scorer as well as a playmaking hub. We have also seen some great stuff out of Amen Thompson. The second-year wing had some issues impacting games offensively early in the series, as he’s a non-shooter and the Warriors were largely ignoring him. But Thompson is now doing a good job of attacking, giving the Rockets something else they can go to late in the shot clock.
Houston has also dominated Golden State with a double-big lineup of Sengun and Steven Adams. That duo has a net rating of +32.2 in the series, and Ime Udoka will very likely go to it more in Game 6. In fact, Game 4 looked like it was potentially going Houston’s way, but Udoka took Adams out because Golden State was fouling him. That’s a decision I imagine he regrets. Adams might be a bad free throw shooter, but the Rockets are good enough defensively to leave him out there and see how things go at the line. They can’t just quickly give away the advantage they have on the inside, where Adams and Sengun are crushing an undersized Warriors team with their ability to crash the offensive glass.
Overall, we have just seen a lot that has worked for Houston in this series, and the last two games have shown that there’s very little that separates these two. So, I’m grabbing 5.5 points and sprinkling some moneyline. It’s tough to win at the Chase Center, but this Rockets team embodies tough.
Pick: Rockets +5.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Rockets ML (+194 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 2
Game 6: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 9:00 pm ET
As previously mentioned, we have seen some great basketball out of Sengun over the last two games. Some of that has to do with Sengun’s ability to score. He had 31 points in Game 4 and nearly carried the Rockets to a win. Then, in a blowout victory in Game 5, Sengun had 15 points on 6 for 9 shooting. However, Sengun is also doing great work as a playmaker in this series. The big man has had at least five assists in three of the last four games, and he had nine dimes in only 31 minutes in Game 5. On top of that, over the last four games, Sengun is averaging 8.0 potential assists per game, and he’s also averaging 7.5 adjusted assists per game. Adjusted assists are the number of passes that lead to baskets, free throws or secondary assists. That said, Sengun is doing a great job of reading the game and putting his teammates in favorable situations. Well, I don’t see any reason not to trust him to do the same in an elimination game. Honestly, if Draymond Green is fired up with the home crowd and plays great individual defense on Sengun, that probably helps the case for more assists.
Bet: Sengun Over 4.5 Assists (+100)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 392-393-2 (+3.25 units)
