The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, May 9th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 9th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 9
Game 3: Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:30 pm ET
Darius Garland, De’Andre Hunter and Evan Mobley are all listed as questionable for the Cavaliers for Game 3. And while you’d think they’d suit up in a must-win game, all three of them missed a massive Game 2. So, it’s hard to assume anything at this point. Regardless, it’s hard not to see some value in Indiana winning this one outright. Before this series, I noted several times that I’m not sure there’s much that separates these teams.
From January 1st to the end of the regular season, Cleveland was 35-14 with an Efficiency Differential of +7.8, according to Cleaning The Glass. In that same span, Indiana went 34-14 with an Efficiency Differential of +5.5. Well, when you consider that, along with the Pacers having home-court advantage and a healthier rotation, why not back Indiana to win this at plus-money odds?
I fully understand there’s a special type of desperation that comes with losing the first two games in this series, but I also saw a Cavaliers team that looked completely gassed towards the end of Game 2. And that’s probably not changing with only one day off between these games.
I’d genuinely be stunned if we don’t see the Pacers win at least one game at home, so taking +130 odds — or anything like that — two nights in a row should end up being a profitable move.
Realistically, I just don’t think Cleveland has a good answer for stopping the Indiana backcourt, and we haven’t even seen Pascal Siakam get himself going in this series. Well, you can count on Siakam — and probably Myles Turner — to get hot at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. That should tilt things towards Indiana.
The Pacers might not have their backs against the walls, but they’re a talented team that learned a lot during last year’s postseason run. And they know they can step on the Cavaliers’ throats with a Game 3 victory.
Also, for as good as Cleveland has been this season, the team is just 6-7 straight-up when playing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 70%.
Pick: Pacers ML (+130)
UPDATE: With Shams Charania reporting that all three of the Cavaliers starters are expected to play, we have seen some insane line movement in this game. At 4:15 pm ET, I jumped on Indiana +7.5 at -159 odds. I’m playing that alternate to win 2 units. I understand Cleveland wants to win, but Indiana does to. I continue to be completely baffled by the numbers we have seen throughout the NBA and NHL Playoffs. Motivation goes both ways. At some point, taking advantage of inflated lines will be profitable.
NBA Player Props Today – May 9
Game 3: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
After knocking down two of his six attempts from 3-point range in Game 1, Nikola Jokic knocked down another two 3s in Game 2. Now, I don’t see any reason not to back him to have multiple 3s in Game 3. After all, Jokic averaged 2.0 made 3s per game during the regular season, shooting 41.7% from deep on 4.7 attempts per game. The big man was also better as a long-range shooter when playing at Ball Arena, where he shot 42.7% from 3 and averaged 2.2 makes per game on 5.1 attempts per game.
Not only is there an entire regular season of stats that shows Jokic is a good bet to make two 3s, but this series also calls for him to be aggressive as a shooter. It’s just going to be very difficult for Denver to beat Oklahoma City without Jokic adding to his team’s floor-spacing ability. The Thunder were sixth in the NBA in 3-point makes per game (14.5) during the regular season, and the Nuggets were tied for 27th (12.0) in that regard. So, Denver is already at a huge mathematical disadvantage from behind the arc against Oklahoma City, and the Nuggets need to make that up somewhere. Well, with Denver lacking shooters that can survive defensively in this series, it’s up to Jokic to pitch in.
Pick: Jokic Over 1.5 Made 3s (-125)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 408-413-2 (+12.74 units)
