Thunder vs. Lakers Western Conference Series Preview
In the second round of the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers will look to keep the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder from securing a spot in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder are fresh off a sweep over the Phoenix Suns, looking like the dominant two-way force they were all year. Meanwhile, the Lakers went out and beat the Houston Rockets in six games, despite being shorthanded the entire series. Well, keep reading for some thoughts on how Thunder-Lakers will go. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Thunder vs. Lakers Series Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, May 2 at 8:00 pm ET)
Series Winner: Thunder -1600, Lakers +900
Series Spread: Thunder -2.5 Games (-290), Lakers +2.5 Games (+220)
Series Total: Over 5.5 Games (+220), Under 5.5 Games (-275)
Thunder vs. Lakers Series Prediction
On May 1, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said that Luka Doncic is “not close” to a return. He then said that we shouldn’t expect to see him on the front end of this series. Unfortunately, that takes the wind out of the sails for this best-of-seven series, which might not have been close to begin with. During the regular season, Oklahoma City went 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread versus Los Angeles. The average margin of victory in those games also happened to be 29.3 points per game.
The season-long numbers are also pretty dooming for the Lakers. This Thunder team is No. 1 in the NBA in adjusted net rating (+10.8), No. 7 in adjusted offensive rating (117.5), and No. 1 in adjusted defensive rating (106.7). That’s better than the Lakers across the board, with Los Angeles being 14th in aNET (+1.4), ninth in aORTG (117.1), and 20th in aDRTG (115.7). On top of that, during the regular season, the Lakers were a below-average team when looking at turnover percentage (14.6%). That’s not good for Los Angeles, as OKC was the No. 2 team in the NBA in opponent turnovers per game (16.7). Also troubling for the Lakers is the fact that Deandre Ayton’s motor does seem to come and go, and the Thunder are absolutely relentless on the offensive glass.
There’s just a lot that favors Oklahoma City in this series. Outside of just the numbers, there’s also the fact that the Thunder are bigger, faster, and younger than the Lakers. In Games 3 through 5 of Los Angeles’ series against Houston, that was a problem for the Lakers against a much lesser team.
LeBron James just could struggle to have the same offensive impact on this series that he did the last one — especially while Doncic is out. At this point in his career, he isn’t suited to be the No. 1 option on a playoff team. And while Austin Reaves is around to take some pressure off him, Oklahoma City has a number of strong, physical point-of-attack defenders to throw on the Los Angeles guard.
On the other end of the floor, there’s even more trouble for the Lakers. Sure, Marcus Smart has given Los Angeles some point-of-attack juice himself, and the Lakers were largely excellent on the defensive end in the first round. But that was a Rockets team that was lacking legitimate shot-making talent with Kevin Durant injured. Oklahoma City will not have that problem — even if Jalen Williams misses the first few games of the series.
The Lakers just aren’t going to have an answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Chet Holmgren, and the Thunder role players should thrive with the open looks they’re going to get playing off those two.
Overall, there’s not much that suggests this will be a competitive series. However, with even a remote chance of Doncic returning at some point, I’m not sure how you play OKC -3.5 on the game spread or Under 4.5 on the game total. After all, JJ Redick has proven that he’s an excellent X’s-and-O’s coach, and Los Angeles did just win a series in which the team was +530 heading into it. That said, while I don’t feel great about it, the only play I’d consider here is Over 4.5 on the game total. That’s listed at a slightly better price than the +3.5 for the Lakers.
Series Lean: Over 4.5 Games (-139)
