The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA features for us twice per week this year. Also, try and listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, November 4th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 4th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 4th
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 7:45 pm ET
The Hawks had to play in New Orleans last night and I never really like to play teams on the second nights of back-to-backs. However, this also the third game in four nights for the Celtics. So, both of these teams come into this one with a lack of rest, and Boston is playing the final game of a four-game road trip. Those are always tough.
The Celtics are also just 2-3 against the spread in their last five games, so they have been allowing opponents to hang around a little. Well, don’t be surprised if the Hawks can keep things somewhat close here. Atlanta has actually covered in three consecutive games against Boston. The Celtics are also just 8-22 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 40% and 49% under Joe Mazzulla, so this has been a bit of a blind spot for Boston. Meanwhile, Atlanta has actually played top-tier teams rather well. The Hawks are 7-4 both straight-up and ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 70% or higher under Quin Snyder.
Atlanta also happens to be an interesting matchup for this Boston team. Trae Young has the ability to consistently create looks for himself and teammates against this elite Celtics defensive backcourt. Few other players can do that. And the Hawks happen to have a lot of length on the wing, which should serve the team well here.
It also doesn’t hurt that Boston will be without Jaylen Brown tonight. Atlanta can throw a little more at Jayson Tatum, forcing the other guys to make shots. The only thing that is absolutely crucial here is that the Hawks get back in transition. But I’d expect them to be a little more disciplined with this being such a big matchup.
Overall, I love Atlanta to find a way to keep this close. I also think the Hawks are somewhat live, so I’ll throw a little pizza money on the moneyline. No question about it, I am ready to get hurt again.
Bet: Hawks +10.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) & Hawks ML (+400 – 0.25 units)
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 9:30 pm ET
This is one of those lines that is so fishy that I’m ready to blindly bet the weirder side. I have not watched a team that is worse than Portland this year, yet the Blazers are only getting 2.5 in a road game against a Pelicans team that people like to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. That said, this reeks of the oddsmakers trying to get people to back New Orleans at home. But when you zoom out, there are reasons to like the Blazers in this spot.
For starters, this New Orleans team is just 2-5 ATS in seven games this season. Meanwhile, Portland is 4-2-1 ATS and 2-0-1 ATS on the road. Also, the Pelicans are playing the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Meanwhile, while this is also the third game in four nights for the Blazers, Portland did get a day off yesterday. On top of that, under head coach Chauncey Billups, Portland is actually 25-25 SU and 28-21-1 ATS when facing teams that are being outscored by 3.0 or more points per game. So, while the Blazers are horrendous, they can be competitive when facing mediocre opponents. And because of some tough injury luck, “mediocre” probably describes this version of the Pelicans.
As far as the on-court stuff goes, it’s also a little hard to ignore that New Orleans’ lack of size could be a problem against a Portland team with a good center rotation. Yves Missi has been a revelation defensively for the Pelicans thus far, but it’s going to be hard for him to handle Deandre Ayton in the paint tonight. And Donovan Clingan will then come in and wreak some havoc off the bench.
Bet: Blazers +2.5 (-107)
NBA Player Props Today – November 4th
Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets – 8:00 pm ET
I mentioned a few days ago that the training wheels are coming off Ja Morant. Well, on Saturday, the star guard played 31 minutes in a win over the 76ers. That was the first time all year that he hit the 30-minute mark. Also, over the last three games, Morant is averaging 39.6 combined points, rebounds and assists per game. Admittedly, that’s a little misleading. In two of those three games, Morant just missed out on going Over tonight’s PRA total. However, one of those games was a performance against the Bucks in which he went for 26 points, 14 dimes and 10 rebounds. That shows that the very best version of Morant will come out plenty this season. And I like it to happen tonight.
Morant had 14 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds against this Nets team last Wednesday, but he shot 5 for 16 from the floor and 1 for 6 from 3. I don’t expect him to struggle that much as a scorer again here. Dunks & Threes’ predictive adjusted defensive rating model has the Nets at the 25th-ranked defense in the league this year. Right now, they’re 20th in the league in actual defensive rating (114.7). That means regression could be coming. And I’m just not sure they have the type of perimeter defenders required to keep Morant in line twice in a row.
Look for Memphis to play a high-paced game tonight, and don’t be surprised if Morant goes off at the Barclays Center.
Bet: Morant Over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
New York Knicks at Houston Rockets – 8:45 pm ET
Alperen Sengun’s minutes have been a little inconsistent over the last four games. Honestly, it’s pretty odd considering the team just invested a lot of money in him. It certainly seemed like he was done with having to prove his worth to Ime Udoka and the front office. However, Sengun has played 26 or fewer minutes in three of the last four games, so his point and rebound total is down at 26.5 tonight. And at that number, I’m willing to play it and hope for the best.
Sengun averaged 37.0 points and rebounds per game over the first two games of the season, and he also went Over 26.5 points and rebounds against the Mavericks last week. He’s just very easily capable of dominating games as both a scorer and rebounder. And the reason I’m willing to play it here is that Sengun should find some success against the Knicks. New York is no longer a very good rebounding team, so Sengun should have no trouble cleaning the glass. I also like him to score against Karl-Anthony Towns, whether it’s by doing it directly around the basket or facing up and going by him.
Bet: Sengun Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks – 9:45 pm ET
Kyrie Irving only played 28 minutes last night, as the Mavericks blew out the Magic and his services weren’t required late. Partially because of the decreased workload, Irving was just 1 for 2 from 3-point land. However, before that game, Irving had made at least three 3s in four of the previous five games. And on the season, Irving is knocking down 3.3 triples per game. With that in mind, I like the idea of taking Irving to make at least three 3s in a meeting with the Pacers.
Indiana is actually doing a good job of defending the 3-point line this year, and that’s part of the team’s defensive philosophy. The Pacers don’t defend at a high level, but they do try to do their best to keep opponents from getting a lot of 3s up. However, Irving’s ability to knock 3s down off the dribble is good in any matchup. And that’s especially true of one in which Tyrese Haliburton could spend some time defending him. So, I’m taking a shot on this at plus-money odds, even though I can acknowledge the stats might be working against it.
Bet: Irving Over 2.5 Made 3s (+124)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 33-26 (+5.98 units)
