The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, December 30th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 30th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 30th
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
The Nuggets will be playing without Aaron Gordon again here, and this is a Denver team that has failed to cover in four of its last six games. The Nuggets did earn a 134-121 win over the Pistons last game, and that was a game that I actually did cash in on. However, that was the second night of a back-to-back for Detroit. It was an expected victory for Denver. Well, the Nuggets should probably win tonight’s game too. The Jazz are just 7-23 on the season. However, Utah has covered in five consecutive games. This team is starting to play some much better basketball, and the Jazz probably should have beaten the 76ers outright on Saturday. That said, I’m playing them to hang around against the Nuggets tonight. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
There’s no denying that Nikola Jokic is going to have his way in the paint in this game. However, with Gordon out and Jamal Murray looking nothing like the reliable No. 2 option he used to be, I’m not sure Denver has the type of rotational advantage it used to have over Utah. Outside of the center spot, the Jazz will feel good about all the matchups they have.
It’s also hard to ignore that the Jazz are making 17.2 triples per game over the last five games, and they’re shooting 42.4% from deep. That type of shooting will be hard for the Nuggets to keep up with. Denver is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league, and I’m a big believer in Utah finding a way to swing this game with the math battle.
The Nuggets are also just 22-33 against the spread as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points under Mike Malone. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 32-22-1 ATS as home underdogs under Will Hardy. They’re also 57-44 ATS when facing teams with winning records under Hardy.
Bet: Jazz +7 (-108 – 2 units) & Jazz ML (+240 – 0.5 units)
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 pm ET
Like the game against the Jazz, the 76ers are fully capable of beating the Blazers and should be expected to do so. However, going out west and winning by a big margin is difficult. And that’s especially true with Portland having won two games in a row and three of its last five. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has failed to cover in four of its last five.
The Blazers have their flaws, but they actually do have bodies to throw at Joel Embiid. If the big man plays through his recent foot injury, he’ll be defended by Deandre Ayton, Donovan Clingan and potentially Robert Williams III (questionable). All of those guys have size, length and sound defensive abilities — although Ayton’s do tend to come and go. And if Embiid isn’t dominating, the Sixers will struggle to win by seven or more — even if Tyrese Maxey does go crazy in this game.
I’d just suggest keeping an eye on the status of Toumani Camara and Jerami Grant here. Both players are questionable. I already have this play and can’t change it, but it might be worth waiting to fire away until you see the injury report. Honestly, Camara is the more important one. Portland can use a guy with his ability to defend and do some dirty work.
Bet: Blazers +6.5 (-115 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – December 30th
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
If you keep reading, you’ll see that I’m using the Knicks in a moneyline parlay tonight. However, I do like Alex Sarr to have at least two blocks here. Sarr is averaging 1.8 blocks per game in the month of December, and he has had five games with at least two blocks in the eight games he has played. Sure, he only had one against New York when the teams met on Saturday, but I don’t see any reason he can’t get to two or three here. Sarr is fifth in the entire NBA in block rate (5.9%), so he has been exceptional when it comes to swatting shots away in his rookie season. Well, that’s hard to ignore in a matchup with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is sixth amongst centers in usage rate (26.4%) this season. Sarr will be around the ball a lot and will look to use his length and timing to send some of Towns’ shots back. That doesn’t mean he’ll shut the Knicks star down, but he can do some damage on the stat sheet.
Bet: Sarr Over 1.5 Blocks (+110 – 0.5 units)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
PARLAY: Knicks ML vs. Wizards & Kings ML vs. Mavericks (-117 – 2 units) – I don’t feel comfortable laying the 3.5 or 4 with the Kings, but I like them to win. However, the moneyline is a little pricey. So, I’m throwing the Knicks into a parlay to get the odds a little closer to where I’d play Sacramento. There’s no such thing as a guarantee, but I’d be stunned if New York loses. Let’s just hope Jalen Brunson plays. He’s listed as questionable. If he doesn’t, I might be looking at a sweat in both games.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 140-132-1 (+9.41 units)
