The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, December 6th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 6th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 6th
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 pm ET
Khris Middleton is set to make his return for Milwaukee tonight. The potent scoring wing is going to be on a minutes restriction, but he should give the Bucks a nice boost — both in shotmaking and overall energy. This Milwaukee squad will now feel like it’s close to being at full strength, which should give the team the juice it needs to start competing for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have also been playing extremely well without Middleton. They had won seven in a row before facing the Hawks in a bad scheduling spot last game, and they have still won nine of their last 11 games. Now, they will look to try and keep things close against a Celtics team that has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 games.
Boston is a scary team to bet against. The Celtics have more firepower than any team in basketball, and they’re tremendous defensively. So, there’s always a chance they’re going to blow teams away with a few stops and then a couple of 3s on the other end of the floor. But Boston has not been playing as well as usual lately. Over the last 14 games, the Celtics have a net rating of +7.9. That’s good. However, it’s not historically good. That’s the standard for Boston these days. Also, in that same 14-game span, the Bucks have a net rating of +4.8.
The reality right now is that the Celtics shouldn’t be laying this many points against a good Bucks team. Sure, Boston can snap out of its funk at any moment. But this is a play on the number. It’s also a play on the fact that Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Jayson Tatum are all questionable tonight. If any of them miss this game, that only helps Milwaukee’s chances of competing. And for what it’s worth, the Celtics are just 31-33-4 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points under Joe Mazzulla.
Bet: Bucks +8.5 (-115)
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
Victor Wembanyama sat out last night’s game with a back injury, and he’s questionable to play tonight. But this feels like it’s worth playing because of the small chance he does suit up. Sacramento has been playing some much better basketball lately, and inserting Malik Monk into the starting lineup has clearly helped the Kings find some of the magic that made them a great regular-season team two years ago. They pounded the Rockets two games ago, and they should have won against the Grizzlies last night. But this is still the second night of a road back-to-back, which is never easy on the players. And the Kings shouldn’t be trusted to win convincingly against the Spurs, even if Wembanyama does sit.
We have seen this San Antonio team earn a win over Oklahoma City without Wembanyama, so it’s not like the team can’t play without him. Sure, I would feel worse about this if the star ends up sitting, but what if he is active? This thing will end up going off closer to +1.5 or +2, if the Spurs are getting points at all. And it does feel like last night’s absence was planned with Chicago being the worse of two opponents in a back-to-back set.
Bet: Spurs +6 (-112)
NBA Player Props Today – December 6th
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
The other night, I played Haywood Highsmith to go Over 1.5 made 3s against Los Angeles. In that writeup, I noted that the Lakers have given up the second-most 3s to opposing power forwards. Well, Jalen Johnson is the opposing power forward tonight — at least until De’Andre Hunter comes in. Johnson hasn’t shot the ball very well lately, as he’s just 1 for 6 from deep over the last two games. But before that, Johnson had made at least two triples in six consecutive games. So, he is capable of burying open looks. That said, with Johnson likely to get some golden opportunities to knock down some 3s, I’m taking him to go Over 1.5 tonight. I’m also playing Atlanta in a moneyline parlay, so keep reading for more on that.
Bet: Johnson Over 1.5 Made 3s (-111)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
PARLAY: Hawks ML vs. Lakers & Pacers ML vs. Bulls (+148) – I think the Hawks and Pacers win tonight, but I don’t feel comfortable laying the points with either. Indiana should be motivated to bounce back after some ugly play in the last few weeks, and the team gets a Chicago team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Pacers should take advantage of that, especially in a favorable matchup to begin with. The Bulls can’t guard the perimeter, so Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin should torch them. And Myles Turner is a good defender to have on a red-hot Nikola Vucevic.
In the other game, I just don’t trust the Lakers defense against an explosive Hawks team. Los Angeles is 26th in the NBA in defensive rating over the last 10 games, and the team’s lack of effort has been appalling. That’s going to be a big problem against an Atlanta squad that plays with pace, and also just happens to be very active. But I will note that this is the game that worried me with the spread, which is why I’m going with a moneyline parlay. I like Atlanta to win this one, but I have been burned by this team too many times to trust it to win by five or more against a Western Conference playoff team.
6PT TEASER: 76ers +9.5 vs. Magic & Jazz +8.5 vs. Blazers (-125 – 1.5 units) – If you haven’t already looked at some of FanDuel’s teaser options, you’re going to want to do that. While a lot of people like to dump on NBA teasers, you can win with them if the price is right. Tonight, I’m teasing two games I like at smaller numbers through two key numbers and don’t have to pay a big price to do it. With the Sixers, we just saw these teams play a close game in Philadelphia the other night. It was a four-point win for Orlando, and that was a game in which Paul George didn’t play. Well, the Sixers should be able to keep things close again with him in the lineup. Honestly, they should have a shot at winning this outright. This Sixers team has won two in a row with George in the lineup. George is going to go to war with Franz Wagner on both ends of the floor, and that matchup could end up being somewhat even. But I like the edge the Sixers have offensively in the backcourt.
The second game will be a little tougher to trust, as the Jazz are miserable away from home. But I’m just not sure Portland can be trusted to come out and win this game. The Blazers have lost four of their last five, and I’m not sure much separates these two in the talent department. I liked the Jazz at +2.5, but I love them at +8.5. Utah is 22-18 ATS in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Will Hardy, and the team is also 14-6 SU and 12-7-1 ATS versus teams with winning percentages between 25.0% and 40.0% under Hardy. I think that streak extends, but I’ll feel good about having extra points. No Donovan Clingan or Robert Williams III for Portland helps, too. Those are the centers that impact winning for the Blazers.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 97-89 (+4.22 units)
