Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, January 31.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Pacers ML (+111 – 1.5 units) vs. Hawks
Hawks at Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Kristaps Porzingis remains out for the Hawks, who will also be missing Onyeka Okongwu tonight. That means Atlanta will be really shorthanded inside, taking away one of the few major advantages the team has over Indiana. The Hawks also have Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher listed as questionable, meaning they could be missing some important pieces on the wing. That’s especially problematic when it comes to Johnson, who is playing like an All-Star this year.
I’m just not sure Atlanta has the talent mismatch you’d expect in this matchup with an Indiana team that is a little better than its miserable record. The Pacers are actually 4-1 with a +4.6 net rating in their last five home games, playing a bit better now that guys are starting to come back from injuries. And overall, Indiana’s perimeter trio of Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Bennedict Mathurin might top any three guards Atlanta can throw out there. I also think Pascal Siakam will be the best player on the floor.
The only thing missing here is motivation, as Indiana isn’t going anywhere this season while Atlanta’s spot in the Play-In will be iffy the rest of the year. However, I’ll take my chances with the Pacers, who I believe have a better coach and roster.
Mavericks +11.5 (-105) vs. Rockets
Mavericks at Rockets – 8:30 pm ET
The Mavericks are playing their third game in four nights, so this isn’t the greatest rest spot for them. However, they did have Friday off, so this isn’t the worst situation in the world. And realistically, I feel Dallas has turned into something of a blind bet when facing strong competition. The Mavericks are 6-3 against the spread over their last nine games, so they’re playing some decent ball right now. But the real trend to like is that Dallas is 11-5 ATS when facing teams that outscore opponents by 3.0 or more points per game. The Mavericks have also been good against strong rebounding teams, going 6-4 straight-up and 9-1 ATS versus teams that outrebound opponents by 3.0 or more rebounds per game. Well, the Rockets are the best rebounding team in the league, so that trend certainly applies here.
It also seems like Dallas will have Naji Marshall back tonight, so the only players that will be out are Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Dereck Lively II. Those aren’t players the Mavericks are counting on the rest of the year.
NBA Player Props Today
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112 – 1.5 units) vs. Bulls
Bulls at Heat – 8:00 pm ET
The Heat will be without Tyler Herro and Norman Powell in what could be an up-and-down game against the Bulls tonight. With that in mind, jumping on some player props in this game feels like a must, and it’s Jaquez that really stands out to me. As a scorer, Jaquez could thrive against a Chicago team that is 25th in the NBA guarding inside 10 feet, where he scores 84% of his points. And with regards to usage rate, Jaquez’s jumps up to 24.1% when playing without Herro and Powell, which is 3.1% higher than it is on the year. That has helped him score 21.7 points per game in the three contests, which is a jump of 6.8 points per game. On top of that, Jaquez is always a contributor when it comes to rebounds and assists, making him a likely candidate to fill up the stat sheet for Miami.
Additional Plays
PARLAY: Hornets Alt +12.5 vs. Spurs & 76ers ML vs. Pelicans (-164 – 2 units)
