Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, November 22.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Grizzlies +1.5 (-113 – 1.5 units) vs. Mavericks
Grizzlies at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
It’s tough backing a Grizzlies team that will be playing without Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., but this is more of a fade on the Mavericks than anything else. Dallas didn’t look all that great in a 118-115 win over New Orleans last night, and this is a team that has been absolutely miserable offensively since the start of the season. The Mavericks will also have tired legs with this being the third game in four nights. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies haven’t played since Thursday’s blowout victory over the Kings.
I just trust Memphis to execute at a higher level offensively, which is wild to say given the firepower this team has on the injury report. I’m also not too concerned about the Grizzlies defense against this pitiful offense.
Memphis has also been pretty good against bad teams under Tuomas Iisalo. The Grizzlies are 4-1 when facing teams that are outscored by 3.0 or more points per game since he took over. They’re also 8-3 against teams with losing records. That said, I think Memphis wins this game, but I’m taking the 1.5 because the price wasn’t much better for the moneyline.
NBA Player Props Today
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 22.5 Points + Assists (-118) vs. Pelicans
Hawks at Pelicans – 7:00 pm ET
In games played without Trae Young this season, Alexander-Walker is averaging 25.4 combined points and assists in nine contests. The guard is also on a bit of a tear coming into this one, finishing with at least 27 combined points and assists in each of his last three. Alexander-Walker had 26 points and four assists against the Suns, 24 points and three assists against the Pistons, and 38 points and five assists against the Spurs. Well, Alexander-Walker now goes up against a Pelicans team that is 27th in the NBA in defending PnR ball handlers. New Orleans is also 28th in the NBA in defending above-the-break 3s, which is where 30% of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from. This just feels like another game in which the talented guard will put up numbers. Plus, there’s the added bonus of this being Alexander-Walker’s former team.
Kyshawn George Over 15.5 Points (-118) vs. Bulls
Wizards at Bulls – 8:00 pm ET
George only had five points against the Raptors last night, but he should be in for a better performance this evening. The Bulls play at the second-fastest pace in basketball, while the Wizards play at the fifth-fastest pace. That said, this is going to be an up-and-down game, which is why the total is up at 243.5. That should mean there will be some big performances to go around, and George is as likely as anybody on Washington to have one. Chicago hasn’t been great at guarding PnR ball handlers, plus the team is just average when it comes to defending transition and spot-up plays. George should be able to do some damage with all of that, but I think he’ll do most of his work at the rim. The Bulls don’t have many reliable perimeter defenders, and they also don’t have a true rim protector. That should mean that George, who has been great at attacking downhill, will have chances to finish tonight.
Cam Spencer Over 3.5 Assists (-129) vs. Mavericks
Grizzlies at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
In the four games Spencer has played without Ja Morant, he’s averaging 10.8 potential assists per game. Life is also a bit easier on all of Memphis’ playmakers with Zach Edey healthy as a play finisher. That’s part of the reason why Spencer racked up six assists against the Kings on Thursday. And while I don’t know that he’ll match that number against a good Mavericks defense tonight, I do like his chances of finishing with at least four.
Zach Edey Over 12.5 Points (-110) vs. Mavericks
Grizzlies at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
Edey has had at least 13 points in two of the three games he has played since returning from ankle surgery. The big man also happens to be coming off his best performance of the season, scoring 16 in 25 minutes against the Kings. Tonight, I can see another solid outing coming from the gigantic center. While the Mavericks have some rotation pieces that have been good defensively in the past, they’re 24th in the NBA at defending the short mid-range area on the court and 26th when it comes to defending the rim. That’s where Edey does all of his work, so he should have an efficient game.
Added Plays
PARLAY: Hornets Alt +7.5 vs. Clippers & Magic Alt +7.5 vs. Knicks (-118 – 2 units)
