Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, October 24.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today
Hawks ML (-111) vs. Rockets
Rockets at Hawks – 8:30 pm ET
I texted Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon last night to praise the Rockets, who I fully believe are Western Conference contenders this year. However, if betting was as simple as taking the better team in every single game, we’d all be rich. In this game, we have to be cognizant of the betting splits and the situation. Our Circa Sports betting splits for this game show that most bettors are flocking to Houston after last night’s win over San Antonio, yet Atlanta has gone from +1.5 to -1.5. That’s some significant reverse line movement, signaling smart money on the Hawks. The situation is also interesting. We won’t see Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams on the second leg of a back-to-back, so the Rockets are going to be shorthanded in a difficult road venue. I’m also not going to undersell what the Hawks have done. While I viewed Atlanta as a regression candidate coming into this season, Atlanta has a net rating of 24.7 through two games. The Hawks are a good basketball team, and they have the defensive pieces required to disrupt the Rockets offense.
Bulls ML (-115) vs. Wizards
Wizards at Bulls – 8:00 pm ET
This is another game in which I’m going against my priors a bit. I’m a fan of the roster the Wizards put together, and I’m not a big fan of the Bulls. However, Washington is coming off a tough home loss last night, then the team had to travel for this meeting with Chicago. Meanwhile, the Bulls picked up a win over the Bucks early in the afternoon yesterday, giving them a little more time to get ready for this contest. That’s a small edge to the home team. Another one? While we haven’t seen the injury report for Washington, you’d have to think some of the veterans could be sitting out to preserve their bodies. But even if they’re not, I think Chicago’s ability to play with pace could wear on some of those guys, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Bulls just carve up a poor Wizards defense.
NBA Player Props Today
Keon Ellis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+170) vs. Cavaliers
Nets at Cavaliers – 7:30 pm ET
Ellis played 34 minutes in Brooklyn’s season-opening loss to Charlotte, and that type of playing time is all I’m looking for. While Ellis only took three shots from behind the three-point line last game, there will be nights in which he gets up at least five attempts. This could be one of them. While Cleveland is undoubtedly one of the most talented teams in the league, the defense the team plays in the backcourt leaves a lot to be desired. Ellis should be able to break free from guys like Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, and Sam Merrill a couple of times, and that makes it hard not to like him to knock down two triples at +170.
Jamal Murray Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105) vs. Pelicans
Pistons at 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
Last season, Murray averaged 40.8 combined PRA when facing bottom-10 defensive teams. He also went Over 35.5 PRA in 17 of the final 20 games he played against bottom-10 defensive teams. Well, I know Jamahl Mosley is a defensive-minded coach, but treating New Orleans like a poor defensive team is a must. The Pelicans are also weakest in the backcourt, where Murray should enjoy getting the opportunity to create against the likes of Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, and Jordan Poole. I think he’s going to put a big dent in this number with his scoring and passing, but I also think he’ll chip in a bit on the glass.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
PARLAY: Heat Alt +8.5 vs. Hornets & Suns ML vs. Warriors (-156 – 1.5 units)
