Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Sunday, November 16.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Pelicans +11 (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Warriors
Warriors at Pelicans – 7:00 pm ET
The Pelicans just fired Willie Green, so there could be a more spirited effort from this group under James Borrego tonight. There’s also a chance Zion Williamson returns from his hamstring injury, as he’s listed as questionable for this one. That really should be enough for New Orleans to find a way to avoid a double-digit loss, especially with Golden State missing Jonathan Kuminga. Of course, Stephen Curry is on an absolute heater right now, so fading this Warriors team is a little scary. But it’s worth noting that Golden State has a losing against-the-spread mark as a favorite of 10 or more under Steve Kerr. The team is also 38-49 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 25% or worse. The Warriors are more likely to show up in a big way in spotlight games against good teams. They might sleepwalk through this one.
NBA Player Props Today
De’Aaron Fox Over 23.5 Points (-105) vs. Kings
Kings at Spurs – 4:00 pm ET
Fox has had at least 24 points in two of the last four games. Today, he’s going up against his former team, perhaps providing a little extra motivation to perform like a killer. The Kings are also 27th in the NBA in defensive rating (120.5), and their perimeter defense is miserable when Keon Ellis isn’t on the floor. There shouldn’t be much preventing Fox from getting to the basket or consistently drilling pull-up jumpers. Victor Wembanyama is also a little banged up right now, so there might be a little more on Fox’s plate. I think he’ll respond with a big scoring performance.
Noah Clowney Over 12.5 Points (-128 – 1.5 units) & Alt 15+ Points (+130 – 0.5 units) & Alt 20+ Points (+420 – 0.25 units) vs. Wizards
Nets at Wizards – 6:00 pm ET
Clowney only had 12 points against the Magic last game, but that defense was a lot better than the one he’ll see tonight. The Wizards are 29th in the league in defensive rating (122.9). Meanwhile, the Nets are down at 30th in the league (125.3). This is a game in which stops will be extremely hard to come by, and Washington’s pace means that there will be good offensive performances to go around. Well, that has me thinking that Clowney could be in for a big night. The 21-year-old has scored at least 15 points in four of the last six games, and I don’t think a performance with 20 or more is off the table.
Reed Sheppard Over 11.5 Points (-105 – 1.5 units) vs. Magic
Magic at Rockets – 7:00 pm ET
Sheppard has been one of the few players that has been consistently coming through for me. Well, I simply can’t go away from him as long as his point total is this low. Sheppard has scored at least 12 points in five consecutive games. As long as he’s playing 25 or more minutes, he’s going to be a good threat to continue scoring. Houston simply needs his ability to shoot the 3, especially now that Tari Eason is out for a couple of weeks. Sheppard ‘s scoring off the bench is more important than ever, which is why I think this line is a little off — even against a rapidly improving Orlando defense.
Ace Bailey Over 11.5 Points (-140 – 1.5 units) & Alt 15+ Points (+160 – 0.5 units) vs. Bulls
Bulls at Jazz – 8:00 pm ET
Bailey comes into this game after having scored 20+ in back-to-back contests, and he has also scored at least 12 points in three of the last four. The rookie is starting to consistently see big minutes, plus the game looks like it is slowing down for him. Well, I’m not sure there’s any reason he can’t have a good game as a scorer tonight. Chicago is just 18th in the NBA in defensive rating (115.1). The team is also fourth in the NBA in pace of play (103.41); Utah is 11th (102.11). This should turn into a bit of a track meet, so Bailey’s ability to score in a variety of ways should lead to a solid outing.
Isaiah Collier Over 6.5 Assists (+107) vs. Bulls
Bulls at Jazz – 8:00 pm ET
Collier is averaging 7.0 assists per game this season. He has also had at least seven assists in each of the last three games. The talented young guard now goes against a Bulls team that plays at a fast pace and isn’t very good defensively. With that in mind, banking on Collier’s ability to pass feels like a good move — especially at plus-money odds. He’s averaging 12.0 potential assists and 8.0 adjusted assists per game this year. That type of unselfish play should pay off more often than not at this number.
Additional Best Bets (Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
PARLAY: Celtics ML vs. Clippers & Rockets ML vs. Magic (+100 – 1.5 units)
PARLAY: Nets Alt +10.5 vs. Wizards & Suns Alt +7.5 vs. Hawks (-135 – 1.5 units)
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2025-26 Overall Record: 75-77 (-8.05 units)
