Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Sunday, November 23.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Clippers +10 (-110) & Clippers ML (+330 – 0.25 units) vs. Cavaliers
Clippers at Cavaliers – 6:00 pm ET
Kawhi Leonard is expected to return for Los Angeles tonight, making it a little surprising that there’s a shop that has the Clippers at +10. Honestly, I’m not sure the Cavaliers should be laying more than 7.5 here. Cleveland will be without Jarrett Allen, Lonzo Ball, Sam Merrill, and Max Strus tonight, really crushing the team’s depth. That could have been a big edge over an LA team that is old and playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Now, as long as the Clippers don’t have any significant absences, I’m not sure a blowout should be expected. James Harden probably isn’t going for 55 points today, but he should be able to stay rolling against a weak Cavaliers defensive backcourt. It’s also big that Los Angeles has Ivica Zubac inside to make life difficult on Evan Mobley.
The Clippers also happen to be 20-17-1 against the spread as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points under Ty Lue, plus they’re 39-37 ATS when playing the second leg of a back-to-back with him on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 25-27-1 ATS as home favorites under Kenny Atkinson. I think LA keeps this game close and has a shot to win it late.
Suns ML (-135 – 1.5 units) vs. Spurs
Spurs at Suns – 8:00 pm ET
The Spurs are on a three-game winning streak heading into tonight’s meeting with the Suns. San Antonio has been rather impressive without Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, and the win over Atlanta last game was a stellar performance on both ends of the floor. However, I’m not sure why the Spurs should be expected to keep things tight in Phoenix. This season, the Suns are a top-12 team in both offensive rating (117.1) and defensive rating (112.4). They’re also 7-2 with a net rating of +11.6 at home, plus they’re a little healthier than the Spurs. Phoenix simply should be able to figure out a way here. The Suns will have the best player on the floor, as Devin Booker is playing like an All-NBA performer this year. Phoenix also has the better center rotation, and the better 3-point shooting (15.4 makes per game vs. 13.3 makes per game). I am, however, taking the moneyline instead of the 2.5, as I found a decent price and would rather not lose if the Suns play with their food late in the game.
NBA Player Props Today
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 22.5 Points + Assists (-120) vs. Hornets
Hornets at Hawks – 6:00 pm ET
I had Alexander-Walker to go Over this exact mark yesterday. Unfortunately, he was ice cold in the win over New Orleans, finishing with 10 points and three assists in 36 minutes. Well, Alexander-Walker should be able to bounce back here. The Hornets are 27th in the NBA in defending PnR ball handlers, 28th at guarding in isolation, and 28th at guarding above-the-break 3s. All of that should mean a good performance for Alexander-Walker, who is capable of exploiting all of those weaknesses. Guards with big workloads have been torching Charlotte lately, and this game comes a little over 24 hours after a performance in which Harden went for 55 points and seven assists against this defense.
Wendell Carter Jr. Alt Assists 3+ (+160 – 0.5 units) vs. Celtics
Magic at Celtics – 6:00 pm ET
Over the last five games, Carter Jr. is averaging 4.2 potential assists and 3.2 adjusted assists per game. He has been doing some decent work as a passer with Paolo Banchero out, and his numbers would be even better if he didn’t foul out last game. Carter played only 22 minutes against the Knicks, finishing with one assist and one potential assist. However, he had at least three assists in two of the previous four games, plus six potential assists in three straight games before facing New York. Tonight, I expect him to avoid foul trouble against a Boston team that really doesn’t have the most dangerous bigs on the offensive end. So, I’m firing up a small play on Carter to finish with at least three dimes.
Royce O’Neale Over 10.5 Points (-120) vs. Spurs
Spurs at Suns – 8:00 pm ET
O’Neale snapped out of a little slump last game, scoring 16 points against the Timberwolves after having finished with nine or fewer in three consecutive games. Well, I like O’Neale to have another good game tonight. Phoenix has plenty of minutes for O’Neale with Grayson Allen and Jalen Green out — and Ryan Dunn is listed as questionable. This is also a pretty strong matchup, as San Antonio has been pretty lousy at guarding corner 3s and above-the-break 3s. O’Neale does a lot of his damage from behind the 3-point line, as he’s shooting 42.9% on 7.4 attempts per game. The Spurs are also giving up 14.5 triples per game (25th in NBA) and allowing opponents to shoot 39.4% (29th in NBA). O’Neale had 11 points in a blowout win over the Spurs on November 2. I think he can hit that mark again here.
Added Plays
PARLAY: 76ers Alt +7.5 vs. Heat & Lakers ML vs Jazz (-149)
