I only have a few picks for the NBA slate on Thursday, January 15. Normally I’d break down a slate like this with two separate articles, but it doesn’t feel necessary today. So, instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into two pieces, I’m bringing everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
PARLAY: Heat Alt +10.5 vs. Celtics & Spurs ML vs. Bucks (-141 – 1.5 units)
Celtics at Heat – 7:30 pm ET
Bucks at Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
The Celtics haven’t played since Monday, so this is a strong rest spot for them. However, they have lost three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover in four consecutive contests. That said, I like the Heat to keep this game tight, but I’m taking extra points. I like Miami’s third-ranked defense (112.2 aDRTG) to keep Boston’s second-ranked offense (120.4 aORTG) in check, and I think the Heat have the shot-making required to hurt a mediocre Celtics defense. Miami is coming off a good win over Phoenix, and the team is now 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 contests. I just want some extra points because of how quickly the Celtics can rain 3s on opponents, breaking open the closest of games. And to get a reasonable price on the alternate spread, I’m pairing it with the Spurs on the moneyline against a Bucks team that looks to be “quiet quitting.”
PARLAY: Warriors ML vs. Knicks & Hornets Alt +10.5 vs. Lakers (-111)
Knicks at Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
Hornets at Lakers – 10:30 pm ET
There’s a chance Jalen Brunson ends up missing this game, as he got injured in last night’s loss to the Kings. However, even if he’s out there, this is a good spot for the Warriors. Not only is New York playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but Golden State hasn’t played on consecutive days since earlier in the month. That means that this older Warriors team is getting some decent time to rest between games, and they also haven’t played a road game since January 5. That said, they also haven’t had to travel. With that in mind, I like the Warriors to handle their business here, and I see their physicality inside being a difference maker. I also think Stephen Curry can torch a Knicks team that doesn’t defend above-the-break 3s well. Then, to get a better price here, I’m grabbing 10.5 with Charlotte in a winnable game against Los Angeles. The Hornets have been stellar offensively with LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, and Brandon Miller on the floor together, and they should light up a miserable Lakers defense. I also think Moussa Diabate’s activity around the rim will jump off the screen against a motor-less Deandre Ayton.
NBA Player Props Today
Anthony Black Over 15.5 Points (-115 – 1.5 units) vs. Grizzlies
Grizzlies at Magic – 2:00 pm ET
While Franz Wagner is set to return for Orlando tonight, Jalen Suggs will miss this game. Well, Black has been awesome offensively when playing without Suggs, averaging 19.8 points per game when playing as the unquestioned starting point guard. He has also had at least 20 points in seven of the last nine games he has played without Suggs. On top of that, the Magic have a good matchup for today’s game in Berlin. The Grizzlies are just 23rd in the NBA defending pick-and-roll ball handlers, so Black should do some good work when he’s getting screens. Also, Memphis is just 25th in the NBA defending above-the-break 3s, where Black scores 20% of his points. This should be a big game for him, even with Wagner likely to take away some on-ball reps.
Jusuf Nurkic Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-125) vs. Mavericks
Jazz at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
Over the last 10 games, Nurkic is averaging 15.4 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. He has been an absolute monster on the inside for Utah, and he should play well against Dallas tonight. With Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II out for the Mavericks, the team is a little soft inside. In fact, over the last 10 games, they’re in the bottom half of the league in rebound rate. Dallas is also 29th in the NBA defending inside 10 feet, where Nurkic scores 84% of his points. He simply should be able to hit double digits in both points and rebounds here, and I can see him doing so rather comfortably.
2025-26 NBA Record: 264-245 (+9.79 units)
