I have my whole family in for Thanksgiving this week. I moved from New York to Arizona in 2021 and this is the first time they’re all here, so it’s a bit of a rarity and calls for some time away from the desk — but not too much time. That said, instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces today, I’m doing what I do on the weekends and bringing everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 26. Also, check out today’s episode of Hardwood Handicappers, where I dove into the whole slate.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Celtics +3 (-110) vs. Pistons
Pistons at Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
The Pistons have won 13 games in a row. This team is scorching hot at the moment, so it’s not easy suggesting a play against them — especially with how often I have praised the group on the podcast. However, this Detroit team is going to lose eventually, and this feels like a spot in which it could happen. For starters, our VSiN betting splits pages show some significant reverse line movement that suggests Boston is the sharper side. Also, the Celtics are still very capable of shooting opponents off the floor. They’re not as potent as they’ve been in recent years, as Jayson Tatum is out and they traded several other players that were really dangerous from 3. But they’re still going to get shots up, and the Pistons aren’t exactly capable of matching them when it comes to firepower. Also, Detroit beat Boston earlier in the year and Joe Mazzulla is 44-16 straight-up with the Celtics when looking for revenge for a same-season loss.
Hornets +7 (-114 – 1.5 units) & Hornets ML (+220 – 0.5 units) vs. Knicks
Knicks at Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
While the Knicks are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the 3, the Hornets have been one of the better shooting teams in the league. New York is also just 2-5 with a -4.0 net rating on the road, so this team hasn’t been very reliable away from Madison Square Garden. This just feels like a game the Hornets should be able to keep close, especially with OG Anunoby and Landry Shamet out for the Knicks. And I’d keep a close eye on Kon Knueppel here, as he’s lighting it up from deep. This New York team is a bottom-10 group when it comes to guarding corner 3s and above-the-break 3s. Knueppel should be able to take advantage. The same also goes for LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, who will both be out there.
Warriors ML (-127 – 1.5 units) vs. Rockets
Rockets at Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
The Warriors are ninth in the league in defensive rating (112.1) this season, and they were first in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions after acquiring Jimmy Butler last year. That said, this is a Golden State team that has proven to be elite defensively, and that should be the difference in tonight’s meeting with Houston. The Rockets will be playing without Kevin Durant, meaning they’re missing a world-class isolation scorer and one of the few reliable floor-spacers in the rotation. That should make them somewhat easy to guard. On the other end of the floor, I trust Stephen Curry to get hot when he needs to — as he has done throughout the course of the year. Also, Houston is just 7-20 straight-up as a road underdog of 6 or fewer under Ime Udoka. Meanwhile, Golden State is 70-42 SU as a home favorite of 6 or fewer under Steve Kerr.
Suns vs. Kings Under 233.5 (-105)
Suns at Kings – 10:00 pm ET
It’s disgusting playing Unders in today’s NBA, but not every game can be high scoring. That means you have to do it occasionally. Well, this could be a spot to look at it. The Under is 10-7-1 in Suns games this season, plus it has been even more profitable when they have gone against bad teams. The Under is also 5-1 in the last six games the Kings have played. I’ll also note that Phoenix is just 25th in the NBA in pace, so they’ve been primarily looking to execute in a half-court setting — despite the fact that Jordan Ott continues to preach about playing fast.
NBA Player Props Today
Ryan Rollins Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-114) vs. Heat
Bucks at Heat – 7:30 pm ET
On today’s episode of Hardwood Handicappers, I mentioned I might look to play this if Giannis Antetokounmpo sits. However, shortly after recording the show, I made the decision to put it in anyway. Realistically, even if Antetokounmpo plays, there’s a good shot Rollins hits this. While he has only gone Over tonight’s mark in two of the 13 games he has played with the Greek Freak this season, Miami’s outrageous pace of play should mean some good opportunities for Rollins to work his magic. And if Antetokounmpo ends up missing this one, we’ll have an awesome number on an awesome player. Let’s roll the dice.
Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (-115) vs. Thunder
Timberwolves at Thunder – 7:30 pm ET
There’s a chance the Thunder wipe the floor with the Timberwolves, so I’m a little nervous about what Reid’s workload will look like in this game. However, Oklahoma City hasn’t been great at defending the 3 this season, which could mean good things for Reid. Not only is Reid dangerous from 3-point range but he’s also capable of putting the ball on the floor and finishing at the cup. Reid is also playing well coming into this one, as he has scored at least 12 points in five of the last six games. He also had at least 15 points in four of those games. That makes 12 seem very reasonable, even in a rough matchup.
