The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, January 17th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 17th
NBA Best Bets Today – January 17th
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat – 8:00 pm ET
This season, favorites with winning percentages of 51.0% to 60.0% that have failed to cover in back-to-back games are 8-1 against the spread when playing teams with winning records. Also, since 2021, that situation is 81-39 ATS. Well, Miami has lost back-to-back games and failed to cover in both. So, this situation applies to the Heat. However, I’m taking the moneyline instead of the spread, as I’d rather not lay any points at a very similar price.
Not only is there a strong betting system that applies to Miami here, but Denver is coming off a 20-point loss to Houston. The Nuggets are also playing their third game in four nights, so this is a rough spot when it comes to rest. That’s why you’re seeing a bunch of names on the Denver injury report. Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic are both listed as questionable. And it certainly seems like Gordon could miss this one. The Nuggets are doing their best to manage his injury.
There are also plenty of basketball reasons to like Miami here. The main one is that Miami is knocking down 14.3 triples per game. Only five teams in the NBA are making more 3s. Denver is only making 11.9 per game. That’s the third-worst mark in the entire NBA. So, if the Heat come out and shoot the ball the way they normally do, there’s a real chance they have a big advantage when it comes to 3-point math. On top of that, this Miami team is 10th in the league in adjusted defensive rating. The Heat might not be defending like they have in past seasons, but they’re still good on that end of the floor. And I fully expect a strong defensive effort against an opponent with tired legs.
It’s also hard not to see this as a matchup in which Tyler Herro can steal the win for Miami. Herro has scored at least 32 points in three straight games, and he’s averaging 25.0 points per game since the start of January. He has taken his game to a whole other level, as he has emphasized a heavy dose of 3-point attempts and cut down on contested mid-range jumpers. He’s also doing a good job of getting to the rim. I’m just not sure Denver has a good answer for him defensively.
The Nuggets also happen to be just 14-15 straight-up in games with lines of +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Heat are 29-14 SU as home favorites since the start of last year, and they’re also 51-39 SU when facing teams that allow opponents to shoot 46.0% or more.
Miami also appears to be getting Jimmy Butler back from his suspension tonight. Whether you like him or not, Butler helps this team on both ends of the floor. And after Butler’s meeting with team owner Micky Arison this week, the betting odds have shifted in favor of the Heat keeping Butler at the trade deadline. I think he’ll be locked in.
Bet: Heat ML (-115 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 17th
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
Our VSiN NBA Prop Bet Analyzer reveals that Anthony Edwards is 28-12 to the Over on his 3.5-make total for made 3s tonight. Edwards is averaging 4.2 made 3s per game, shooting 42.3% on 9.9 attempts per night. He has one of the bigger green lights in the entire NBA, meaning he’s free to take whatever shot he wants. And I’d be surprised if Edwards doesn’t launch a ton of 3s tonight. Minnesota is going to need a Herculean offensive effort from Edwards, as Donte DiVincenzo is out for the Timberwolves tonight. Edwards is also running hot coming into this one, as he went 4 for 9 from deep against Golden State last game. He has now made at least four 3s in six of his last seven and 10 of his last 14. This is just a regular occurrence for Edwards now. So, while Edwards only went 3 for 7 from deep against the Knicks last game, I think he’ll come out swinging in the Garden. And for what it’s worth, opponents are shooting 37.3% from 3 against New York. Only five teams are doing a worse job of defending shooters.
Bet: Edwards Over 3.5 Made 3s (+110)
I’m also taking Julius Randle to go Over 19.5 points in this game. Randle only played 27 minutes against the Warriors last game, and Chris Finch opted to go to a lineup without him down the stretch. I’m guessing that’ll bring out a fired-up Randle, who is already facing a Knicks team that traded him in the offseason. He scored 24 points the last time he faced New York in a revenge spot, and I’m anticipating he’ll play with force again here. Randle had also scored at least 20 points in two of his previous three before facing the Warriors. And it’s not like he did nothing against Golden State. He had 17 points in his 27 minutes, so he probably would have scored 20 if he played his usual minutes. Also, the DiVincenzo absence should mean that Minnesota will need some more Randle too. There aren’t many guys on this team that can be counted on for consistent offense. Randle is one of the few.
Bet: Randle Over 19.5 Points (-118)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
I’m taking a flier on Naji Marshall to finish with four or more assists against Oklahoma City tonight. Marshall just had 10 dimes in a loss to New Orleans, and that’s probably something he’ll fail to replicate the rest of the season. But Marshall has had at least four assists in three of his last four games, and he’s averaging 6.2 potential assists for an adjusted assist number of 4.7 in January. With Luka Doncic out, there are on-ball opportunities to go around for Dallas, and Marshall’s one of the players that is taking advantage of it. So, at very favorable plus-money odds, why not take Marshall to contribute as a playmaker again? I know the Thunder are amazing defensively, but they might not get up for this one after last night’s beatdown of the Cavaliers. And either way, there are plays to be made against any defense. That’s especially true for a player that doesn’t receive a lot of defensive attention. Also, if Kyrie Irving sits this game, this would be an insane value.
Bet: Marshall Over 3.5 Assists (+133)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Hornets Alt +10.5 vs. Bulls & Spurs Alt +7.5 vs. Grizzlies (-103 – 2 units) – The Hornets are finally looking like the team I thought they’d be before the year. Of course, it’s way too late in the season for them to hit the Over on the regular-season total. But perhaps they can make it up to me — and others — with a profitable rest of the season. Charlotte has won two of its last three coming into this one, and the team is now 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven. Not only are LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller playing well, but Mark Williams has been a monster. He was the X-factor for me heading into the season. With the three of them balling out, I like the team’s chances of hanging around against Chicago. The Bulls have lost three games in a row and four of their last five, and one of those losses was against a Hawks team that was sitting everybody. And all of the losses have come at home, so it’s not like Chicago is getting a jolt there. At this point, I’m just not sure the Bulls are even better than the Hornets. So, I’m turning to an alternate spread parlay and taking Charlotte +10.5. Let’s see if they can keep it rolling.
In the second game, I’m grabbing a few extra points and taking the Spurs +7.5 against the Grizzlies. These teams just met in San Antonio the other night, and it was a highly competitive game that could have gone either way. Honestly, if not for a really bad third quarter, the Spurs probably would have won. So, I like San Antonio to come out a little pissed and take it to Memphis. We have seen that it can be hard to win both games in these back-to-back sets over the last few years. I maintain that the Spurs are the team to trust when it comes to the turnover battle, and the Victor Wembanyama-Jaren Jackson Jr. matchup should go San Antonio’s way. Neither of those things happened on Wednesday, so I feel better about this swinging back in the Spurs direction tonight. However, Memphis is an absolute wagon, so I’m taking the alternate spread to protect myself from the Grizzlies stealing the game late and getting into the free throw game.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 173-176-1 (-7.96 units)
