The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, January 21st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 21st
NBA Best Bets Today – January 21st
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
The Magic are finally starting to look like a team that is without several important pieces, as they have lost five of their last six games and are just 4-9 in their last 13 games. There’s no shame in that. Franz Wagner is an All-Star and Jalen Suggs is one of the best two-way guards in the league. And the fact that Orlando was able to win so many games with Wagner and Paolo Banchero missing time was impressive. But the Magic should now be treated like a below-average team until they get some bodies back. Over the last 13 games, Orlando has a net rating of -9.2. And while Toronto is one of the only teams in the league with a worse number in that same stretch overall, the Raptors are 3-3 with a net rating of -4.7 at home in that time. So, Toronto has been a better home team than Orlando has been on the road as of late.
The Raptors have also won two of their last three games, with one of them being a home victory over the Celtics as 14.5-point underdogs. Immanuel Quickley does remain out for Toronto, and Ochai Agbaji is also on the injured list. But this team is a little healthier than it was early in the year, and the group is more talented than its record suggests. So, the Raptors really should be able to take advantage of a home game against a beaten-up Magic group.
Orlando is actually 8-19 straight-up in road games with lines of +3 to -3 under Jamahl Mosley. Meanwhile, Toronto is 5-4 SU when facing teams that score 108.0 or fewer points per game since Darko Rajokovic became the team’s head coach.
Scottie Barnes should also be able to hold his own in a matchup with Paolo Banchero, making it a little less clear that Orlando will have the best player on the floor. And I’m expecting the Raptors role players to outperform the Magic ones.
Bet: Raptors ML (+102 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 21st
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 pm ET
I have been turning to the VSiN NBA prop analyzer more and more lately. While past success isn’t always a predictor of future success, you do start to see some trends develop over the course of a season. There are guys that simply do a good job of outperforming their numbers, and one of them is Josh Hart. This season, Hart has gone Over his 27.5 combined points, rebounds and assists mark in 27 of the 43 games he has played. He has been one of the most profitable players to back in this market, and I’m turning to him to stuff the stat sheet against the Nets.
In January, Hart is averaging 13.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, which is good for an average of 31.2 points, rebounds and assists per game. Of course, some of those games came without Karl-Anthony Towns, and they saw Hart’s minutes in outrageous territory. But he still played 37 minutes against Atlanta on Monday, and he finished that game with 14 points, nine boards and five assists. He’s going to continue playing insane minutes, which means opportunity when it comes to NBA player props. And tonight, Hart is on national television against the Nets. In two meetings with Brooklyn this year, he’s averaging 17.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game. He likes this matchup and takes the cross-town rivalry seriously.
Bet: Hart Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 – 1.5 units)
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
I was looking for Scoot Henderson props for this game, but they weren’t listed anywhere at publish time. However, this number did jump out to me. Jerami Grant is coming back from a few weeks off, as he was dealing with neck and jaw pain. But he played 25 minutes against the Rockets two games ago, and he played 30 minutes against the Heat on Sunday. And in the Miami game, Grant scored 18 points on 5 for 11 shooting, looking a lot like the guy he has been since arriving in Portland. Grant’s minutes really should continue to go up from here, but even 30 would put him in a good position to score at least 12 — especially facing the same defense he just scored 18 against. Grant’s role on this Blazers team isn’t what it once was, but he’s still a big wing that can score in transition, as a cutter and as a spot-up shooter. He should have some opportunities to put the ball in the hole tonight.
Bet: Grant Over 11.5 Points (-130)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 188-190-2 (-5.36 units)
