The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, January 23rd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 23rd
NBA Best Bets Today – January 23rd
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:30 pm ET
All of the negative Jimmy Butler attention has distracted people from the fact that the Heat are a solid team without him. Sure, Miami’s 116-107 home loss to Portland doesn’t do the best job of illustrating that, but Tyler Herro didn’t play in that game. He’s the one that really makes this team go now, as he’s averaging 24.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game on 47.8% shooting from the floor and 40.7% shooting from 3. Herro’s ability to create for himself and his teammates has gone to a whole other level this season, and multiple opposing coaches have noted that he’s performing like an All-Star and is very difficult to game plan against. Well, Herro is back after missing Tuesday’s game, and the Heat are going up against a Milwaukee team that hasn’t played since Sunday. And while rest is sometimes a good thing, the Bucks were on a four-game winning streak and had won seven of their previous eight games. So, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if they come out a little rusty. When you’re hot, you want to play every night.
The Heat are also just good in spots in which they’re getting a healthy amount of points on the road. Miami is 68-54-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under Erik Spoelstra. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is just 8-9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Doc Rivers. The team is also just 7-10 both straight-up and ATS when taking on teams that shoot at least 36.0% from 3 under Rivers. And that last one is especially interesting, as the Heat are making 14.3 triples per game and shooting 37.0% from 3 this season. They do have the ability to light teams up from the outside, and the Bucks can occasionally struggle when it comes to 3-point math. Milwaukee does try to solve this by playing some of its better shooters with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the team then sacrifices quite a bit defensively. And we know a Spoelstra-coached team will find weaknesses and exploit the hell out of them.
With all of that in mind, I don’t see why this spread is so high. Miami might be without Butler, but the version of Butler we have seen lately isn’t adding anything to the group. These guys probably prefer he stays as far away from the team as possible.
Bet: Heat +7.5 (-112)
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
The Celtics played with their food a bit in Los Angeles last night, needing overtime to beat a Clippers team that was without Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Ivica Zubac. Boston will now likely be a little fatigued heading into the second night of this back-to-back, and that makes this a good spot for Los Angeles. The Celtics are also just 9-12 ATS on the road this season, and they’re 4-8 ATS when taking on Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 15-6 SU and 12-9 ATS when playing at home.
There’s definitely a lot to be concerned about with the Lakers. They haven’t been able to consistently play good ball all year, but they have won three of their last four games. They also haven’t played a back-to-back in a while, so they should have very fresh legs.
As long as Los Angeles is locked in when it comes to rotations, the team should be able to make this a battle. And I’d definitely be keeping a close eye on Anthony Davis here. The Celtics have a lot of talent in their big man rotation, but they have not been great when it comes to defending opposing centers this year. So, this could be a game in which Davis sets the tone inside. That would then give the Lakers some much-needed space on the perimeter, as the Celtics would have no choice but to collapse on him.
This could also be a game in which we see some Boston guys sit. Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford all rested last night. That presumably means they were just trying to be right for this national television game, but we don’t know that for sure. And regardless, Derrick White and Jayson Tatum ended up playing a combined 85 minutes last night. Jaylen Brown also played 39. That speaks to the fatigue I mentioned earlier. Last night’s game didn’t go as planned for the Celtics. That could have some repercussions tonight. And if you’re a Boston fan, you better hope there wasn’t an outing at Craig’s after the game.
Bet: Lakers +5.5 (-118 – 1.5 units) & Lakers ML (+166 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 23rd
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers (in France) – 2:00 pm ET
I thought long and hard about going Over on Victor Wembanyama’s 3.5-make 3-point total for tonight. It’s out there at some enticing plus-money odds. However, I feel a little better about him turning in a monster defensive performance. The Spurs are playing today’s game in Bercy, so this will be a game in which Wembanyama will be juiced up. That could lead to a great offensive showing, but it could also mean some extra adrenaline. So, I ultimately wouldn’t be shocked if he’s off the mark a bit with his jumper. But I don’t see him failing to play with energy on defense. And before failing to go Over 4.5 combined blocks and steals last game, Wembanyama had gone Over this mark in six straight contests. He’s also playing a Pacers team that has a bunch of bigs that are very involved offensively, so he should be around the ball a lot.
Bet: Wembanyama Over 4.5 Blocks + Steals (-135)
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:30 pm ET
Bam Adebayo has had at least 10 rebounds in three straight games, and he has also reached double digits in boards in four of his last five. On top of that, Adebayo has had at least nine rebounds in 10 of his last 14 contests. He’s just doing some awesome work on the glass, and he has honestly been leaving some out there. Adebayo is averaging 15.2 rebound chances per game over the last 14 games, so he’s getting in the mix and working hard to secure the ball.
The reason Adebayo’s rebound total is so low tonight is that he had just five boards against Milwaukee on November 26th, and the Bucks are first in the league in defensive rebound percentage (73.6%). So, getting to nine or 10 rebounds against this team is definitely harder than it is against others. But Adebayo averaged 11.0 rebounds per game against the Bucks last year, and our VSiN NBA prop analyzer has him at 28-13 when it comes to going Over an 8.5-rebound total. So, while this matchup isn’t perfect, I’m taking a shot on it.
Bet: Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds (-103)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Bulls Alt Spread +7.5 vs. Warriors & Nuggets ML vs. Kings (-130 – 1.5 units) – I’m fading two teams that played a tough game against one another with my parlay for tonight. Golden State played Sacramento very close last night, but the team ultimately came up short. And the Warriors expended a lot of energy to do it. That said, I don’t love their chances of handling their business against the Bulls. However, while Chicago is definitely the “sharp” play here, I’m not willing to take the team at +1.5. I want a little more cushion than that. But I do believe the Bulls’ top-15 offense will knife through a tired Warriors defense. Chicago just needs to be disciplined defensively. And in the other game, the Nuggets are the better-rested team, plus they have the Kings beat when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. And while Sacramento has been a little better defensively under Doug Christie, you have to wonder what the legs will look like on the second night of a back-to-back. And that’s especially the case in Denver, where players often find themselves sucking wind even when they aren’t coming off nail-biters.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 195-193-2 (+1.09 units)
