The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, January 31st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 31st
NBA Best Bets Today – January 31st
Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
The Spurs have gone Over the total in eight straight games, and they even combined for 244 in a meeting with the Clippers on Wednesday. Los Angeles is 20th in the league in pace of play (98.9) and second in adjusted defensive rating (108.0), so it’s pretty significant that San Antonio was able to turn that one into a track meet. Well, the Bucks play at the 11th-fastest pace (100.0) in the NBA, and they’re better offensively, and worse defensively, than the Clippers. So, it shouldn’t be as hard for San Antonio to suck Milwaukee into an up-and-down game here. And overall, I just don’t have a lot of faith in either defense consistently getting stops in this one.
Not only have the Spurs been an Over team lately, but the Over is also 10-2 in the last 12 games the Bucks have played. These teams also went Over the total when they met on January 8th, when Milwaukee earned a 121-105 home win over San Antonio. Well, I’m expecting the Spurs to shoot much better than the 36.8% they shot from the field in that last meeting, as they’re a solid offensive team and are going to be more comfortable at home. Doing that would go a long way in ensuring this game turns into a high-scoring one.
It’s also worth noting that the Over is 9-7-1 in the 17 games the Bucks have played with two days of rest under Doc Rivers. It’s also 8-4-1 in the games Milwaukee has played as a road favorite of 6 or fewer under Rivers.
Bet: Over 233.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – January 31st
Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 pm ET
The Sixers are still playing without Paul George, Caleb Martin, KJ Martin and Jared McCain, so Eric Gordon should flirt with 30 or so minutes tonight. If he does, he’s a good bet to knock down a couple of triples. However, instead of dealing with significant juice to back Gordon to make two or more 3s, I’m grabbing plus-money odds on Gordon to make three or more. Gordon has knocked down at least three 3s in five straight games, and he also has 10 games in January in which he has reached that mark. Gordon even had three made 3s in 19 minutes against the Nuggets on January 21st, and that was a game in which George was out there. This Denver team just hasn’t been great at defending the 3-point line all season long, as only five teams in the league have allowed more 3s per game (13.9). So, this is a good night to back Gordon to do what he does. There’s one reason he’s still in the league.
Bet: Gordon Over 2.5 Made 3s (+132)
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
Scottie Barnes has had at least seven assists in six of his last 10 games. Also, Barnes is averaging 11.4 potential assists per game over the last 10, and that’s good for an adjusted assists number of 7.6. With that in mind, I think we’re getting good value on Barnes to reach the seven-assist mark this evening, and that’s especially true against the Bulls. Chicago is 26th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (115.6), and the team plays at the third-fastest pace (104.0) in basketball. So, this really should turn into an up-and-down contest, which is good for a guy that will have the ball in his hands as often as Barnes. Also, with this being a home game, Barnes’ teammates are more likely to cash in on the looks he creates for them. For as bad as Toronto has been this year, the team is actually 11-13 at home.
Bet: Barnes Over 6.5 Assists (+125)
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
According to our VSiN NBA prop bet analyzer, Bradley Beal has gone Over tonight’s combined points, rebounds and assists total in 18 of the 23 games he has played this year. It might seem like Beal is having an awful season for Phoenix, as every single trade rumor includes his name. But the reality is that he’s just not the best fit for the Suns as they look to try and win with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. It has nothing to do with his individual play. In fact, Beal is averaging 14.3 points, 4.1 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game in January, and he’s shooting 47.5% from the floor and 40.0% from 3. He has been extremely efficient in his smaller role, and I like him to go Over 19.5 points, rebounds and assists against the Warriors. Back on December 28th, Beal actually had 28 points, five rebounds and two assists against this Warriors defense. And Beal has also been slightly more productive on the road all year long, as he’s averaging 17.5 points, 3.6 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game away from home. He’s also shooting better from 3.
Bet: Beal Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Nuggets ML vs. 76ers & Pistons Alt Spread +7.5 vs. Mavericks (-145 – 2 units) – The Sixers have been playing some inspired ball lately, but I see the winning streak ending here. With no Joel Embiid or Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic is going to absolutely dominate inside. And Denver should have enough firepower on the outside to withstand anything Tyrese Maxey throws at them. Then, in the second game, I liked the idea of taking the Pistons at home, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it at the real number. So, I’m playing an alternate spread with Detroit, and I’m using Denver to get the price down. Over the last 10 games, only 0.4 separates these teams in net rating. Dallas is extremely banged up, and the team now has to face a solid Detroit team on the road. The Mavericks haven’t been a reliable road team all year, making this a troubling spot for them.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 215-207-2 (+7.00 units)
