The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, January 6th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 6th
NBA Best Bets Today – January 6th
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
I had to rub my eyes and look at the injury report multiple times before trusting that they weren’t deceiving me. However, I usually trust my vision. Like George Costanza, I’m known to spot a dime or two, but I never mistake apples for onions. That said, it looks like only RJ Barrett is questionable for the Raptors tonight. And questionable is an improvement for a guy that has been out since December 29th, meaning we might see Toronto at full strength tonight. This is a team I was higher on than most heading into the year, but they have had awful injury luck. Despite that, they’re 20-14-1 against the spread on the year. They have been a competitive team even without most of their talent, and I now think we’re going to see another gear from the Raptors the rest of the way. That should start with a good effort against a struggling Bucks team.
Not only is Toronto 12-6-1 ATS at home this season, but Milwaukee is 1-4 both straight-up and ATS over its last five games. This Bucks team has cooled off considerably since winning the Emirates NBA Cup, going 3-5 both SU and ATS since then. Milwaukee’s offense has been extremely disjointed in this recent stretch. The team has an offensive rating of just 106.3 over the last eight games, and only four teams in the NBA have a lower mark. One of those teams is Toronto, so Milwaukee at least has that going. But the Raptors should be a little sharper with some proven offensive players now filling up their rotation. And if the Bucks can’t torch the Raptors defense — like everybody else has this season — then this is going to be a pretty tight game.
Overall, I just don’t see any reason to believe Milwaukee will blow the doors off Toronto. The Raptors also happen to be coming off two full days of rest. I’m taking the points as a somewhat big play, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. I’ll also be watching closely tonight, as I am considering an in-season Over on Toronto’s win total.
Bet: Raptors +7.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Raptors ML (+250 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 6th
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 pm ET
I thought about jumping on Victor Wembanyama’s 3-point total tonight, as he has gone Over 3.5 made 3s regularly this season. So, getting it at +134 odds felt pretty generous. However, Chicago did a good job of turning him into a driver in two meetings last year, and Wembanyama’s 3-point volume also happens to be down a little over the last few weeks. That said, I’m laying off and finding another way to play him. That’s by going Over his combined steals and blocks at +115.
Wembanyama is averaging 3.9 blocks and 1.0 steals per game this season, so he regularly racks up “stocks” and makes his presence felt on the defensive end. He’s a heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year for a reason. And tonight, Wembanyama is going up against a big, skilled center in Nikola Vucevic. And while that might sound like trouble, it also means that Wembanyama will be around the ball a lot. Vucevic has a high usage rate for a center, and he doesn’t exactly have a game that will be difficult for Wembanyama to block. He tries to outmuscle opponents on drives to the rim, and he also likes to go to a quick jump-hook very close to the basket. Vucevic is wide enough to find success with that against a thinner Wembanyama, but the second-year superstar will block some by strictly getting his arms up. He’ll also come up with a steal or two by being active in passing lanes against a sloppy basketball team.
I know this seems like a lot of steals and blocks, but Wembanyama isn’t your normal player. He actually had five combined steals and blocks in both meetings with the Bulls last year, and he has also done this in seven of his last 10 games.
Bet: Wembanyama Over 4.5 Steals and Blocks (+115)
Parlays, Teasers, Late Added Plays, In-Season Futures
PARLAY: Pistons ML vs. Blazers & Kings ML vs. Heat (+129) – The Pistons come into this game after having won six of their last seven contests. I was nervous about how the Jaden Ivey injury might impact them, and I still think the team will really miss his firepower soon. But Detroit was able to earn a 14-point win over a solid Minnesota team on Saturday. That said, I’d be pretty surprised if the Pistons can’t handle the Blazers in Detroit. The Pistons have a negative adjusted net rating on the season, but they’re still 5.0 points better than the Blazers per 100 possessions (according to Dunks & Threes). And Portland is much worse on the road, like most bad teams tend to be. Then, in the second game, I’m just putting a little faith in a Sacramento team that is coming off a big 30-point win over Golden State. The Kings have won four games in a row, and they definitely have responded to the Mike Brown firing. Now they have a golden opportunity to inch even closer to .500, as they’re hosting a Heat team that is playing without Jimmy Butler. Miami isn’t exactly broken without Butler — he’s not the player he once was and his negative attitude was hurting the team — but the team is just 6-9 on the road this year. And losing a guy with his size and intensity hurts against an offensive-minded team like this one.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 154-147-1 (+8.88 units)
