We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, March 27th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 27th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 27th
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Heat destroyed a Steph Curry-less Warriors team in the “Jimmy Butler Revenge Game” the other night. Miami undoubtedly had a rough stretch before earning a win over Charlotte a couple of games ago, losing 10 consecutive games and really blowing its shot at winning the division. However, over the last four games, the Heat have an offensive rating of 117.4 and a defensive rating of 107.1. That offensive rating would be the seventh-best mark in the NBA over the course of the season, and the defensive rating would be the second-best mark. I know that’s a very small sample size, so you can’t just suddenly treat this like an elite team. But it definitely feels like Miami is on Atlanta’s level, and the Heat are playing at home tonight. The Hawks are just 16-19 with a -1.9 net rating on the road this year.
It’s also hard not to like some of the matchups here. Davion Mitchell is as good of a guard as you can have defending a player like Trae Young. Mitchell is a pest at the point of attack, and he’s going to make sure Young is never slowly jogging around and playing comfortable. The Heat also have some good wing defenders, plus a major advantage at the center position. I also don’t see a great answer for Tyler Herro on the Atlanta roster. Herro should cook in this game.
For as bad as things have been for the Heat this season, they’re still 8-5 straight-up against Southeast Division rivals. They’re also 13-9 SU as home favorites. Meanwhile, the Hawks are just 11-15 SU as road underdogs, and they’re 1-5 SU in road games with lines of +3 to -3.
Bet: Heat ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 27th
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET
Jalen Williams has been out for a couple of weeks, as he’s dealing with a bad hip right now. The last time we saw him was on March 10th, when he left early in a loss to the Nuggets. Well, Williams is questionable but participated in the Thursday morning shootaround and looks to be ready to go tonight. If he does, he should be able to go Over 24.5 combined points, rebounds and assists. Williams is averaging 21.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game this season, so he regularly stuffs the stat sheet when he gets his normal minutes. Of course, he’ll probably be on a bit of a minutes restriction tonight, but that’s not enough to turn me off a total this low. This Memphis team hasn’t been great defensively since the first few months of the season, so this matchup really isn’t all that daunting. In fact, Williams has played well against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 19.7 points, 7.7 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game in three meetings with them. Let’s just hope Oklahoma City doesn’t blow Memphis out. We’ll likely need four quarters of work from Williams to cash this.
Bet: Williams Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Mavericks Alt +13.5 vs. Magic & Bulls Alt +10.5 vs. Lakers (-122 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 331-329-1 (+5.32 units)
