We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, March 7th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 7th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 7th
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein and Cason Wallace are all out for the Thunder tonight. Chet Holmgren is also listed as questionable, and it’s hard to imagine him going with real injuries to manage. That said, this is going to be a very shorthanded Oklahoma City team tonight. Even assuming Holmgren goes, you’re looking at a game in which the Thunder will be relying on him, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso to go out and beat a Blazers team that has won 15 of its last 22 games. Portland also happens to be fighting for the 10th seed in the Western Conference, so this group has something to play for.
I just can’t help but think that the Blazers should be favored in this spot. We’re talking about a team with a net rating of +4.9 over the last 15 games, and they’ll be relatively close to full strength. So, this isn’t a knock on Oklahoma City in any way, shape or form. I’m just grabbing plus-money odds on a decent team to beat the Thunder’s B team.
Oddly enough, the public is still all over Oklahoma City, according to our VSiN betting splits page. I genuinely think the oddsmakers are hoping to catch lazy bettors that aren’t doing their injury report research.
Bet: Blazers ML (+125 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 7th
Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks – 7:30 pm ET
Over the last two games, Spencer Dinwiddie has a usage rate of 21.2. That’s up from 17.2 over the course of the entire season, so Dinwiddie is getting some extra on-ball reps with Kyrie Irving now out with a torn ACL. Dinwiddie has also averaged 9.0 potential assists — and 7.0 adjusted assists — per game over the last two contests. With that in mind, I’m going to Dinwiddie to have at least six dimes against the Grizzlies tonight. I took this at -130 in Dallas’ meeting with Milwaukee last game and this is an even better matchup. For as good as the Grizzlies were defensively to start the season, they’re just 28th in the NBA in defensive rating over the last 10 games. This should be a game in which Dinwiddie will be able to attack downhill and find some good looks for his teammates. Let’s just hope this doesn’t turn into a blowout, as we’ll need a full workload from Dinwiddie in order for him to cash this.
Bet: Dinwiddie Over 5.5 Assists (-109)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Raptors ML vs. Jazz & Kings ML vs. Spurs (+106)
Clippers -2.5 (-128 – 1.5 units) vs. Knicks – I gave this out on the Pro Picks page in the second half of the Knicks-Lakers game last night. Of course, it’s not going to be gettable at anything close to this number. However, I should note that the Clippers are a good team to throw into parlays. I would suggest pairing them with the Raptors or Kings to win outright.
Suns +7.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Nuggets – I’m not going to go crazy with a writeup for this one. It just seems like Nikola Jokic is legitimately questionable this evening, and this would be a great number if he doesn’t end up playing. Aaron Gordon is also listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Suns have had two full days of rest and should have some momentum after a huge comeback win over the Clippers. I can see this going down to the wire.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 283-289-3 (-5.77 units)
