The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, November 22nd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 22nd
NBA Best Bets Today – November 22nd
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 pm ET
Deandre Ayton is doubtful for the Blazers tonight, and having him on the sidelines has been good for Portland. In Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III, the Blazers have two bigs that can really defend. Both players are happy to do the dirty work for the team, but they’re also good play finishers and solid connective pieces on the other end of the floor. They truly unlock a lot of things for this Portland group, and it’s no coincidence that the Blazers are 3-1 straight-up and 4-0 against the spread in the four games they’ve played without Ayton. And I really don’t see any reason they can’t move to 5-0 ATS without “Dominayton.”
Portland’s net rating of -6.8 on the season is a lot worse than Houston’s +8.5, which is why the spread in this game is so lopsided. But over the last four games, the Blazers have a net rating of +4.0. So, doesn’t it make sense to react a bit more to the team that will actually be on the floor tonight?
The Portland team that we’ll be watching tonight is third in the NBA in defensive rating (105.2) over the last four games. The change at the center position has made this a completely different team defensively, and I like the Blazers to slow down a Rockets team that is just 11th in the NBA in offensive rating (113.3) this year. Then, Portland just has to find a way to be decent offensively against a Houston team that is absolutely elite defensively. But the Blazers were able to generate enough offense to beat the Timberwolves twice, and they also stayed within the number against the Thunder on Wednesday.
Also, for as bad as Portland has been under Chauncey Billups, the team is 15-14 ATS when facing teams that shoot 33.0% or worse from 3. If you can’t make the Blazers pay for bad rotations, it’s hard to blow them out. But I’m not sure we’ll even see those with the group that will be out there.
Bet: Blazers +12.5 (-105)
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
The Pacers are 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Bucks. And while injuries can explain some things, this is also fundamentally a bad matchup for Milwaukee. The Bucks have just been pitiful defensively for two years now. Sure, they’re 15th in the league in defensive rating (112.6) this season, but those numbers are a little skewed. When Damian Lillard is on the floor, Milwaukee allows 117.5 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass. That’s a very, very alarming number, and Lillard is healthy and playing right now. So, the Bucks can be put into the “bad defensively” category, and that’s not a place you want to be against the Pacers.
Indiana is just 16th in the league in offensive rating (112.) this season, but that’s going to change — and it’s going to change fast. The Pacers were second in the NBA in offensive rating (120.5) in 2023-24, and they have only added to last year’s group by getting a healthy Bennedict Mathurin back. Of course, it hurts that Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are out. Nembhard is an awesome two-way player, capable of taking pressure as a distributor off of Tyrese Haliburton while also defending the best on-ball option on the other team. And Nesmith is just the perfect 3-and-D player. But there’s still enough left on this Indiana roster to surgically pick apart this Milwaukee team. And that’s especially true if Myles Turner is knocking down shots. He can pull Brook Lopez away from the basket and open things up for Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to shred the Bucks with their two-man game.
Speaking of Haliburton, this is a game in which he should really be able to show up. This has been an up-and-down season thus far, which is alarming after how he played in the second half of last season. But Milwaukee won’t have a single guard on the floor that can get up in his face and make him uncomfortable.
Of course, the Pacers also have to find a way to deal with the Bucks offense. And Indiana has been horrendous defensively this year. But it certainly helps that Khris Middleton is still out as he recovers from the two ankle surgeries he underwent in the offseason. And the supporting cast the Bucks have put around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard has been a Jekyll and Hyde act all year. Some nights the shooters go cold. Some nights they’re hot. There hasn’t been much in between. But I feel better about the Pacers creating easy offense than I do the Bucks. And that’s ultimately why I want the points here. However, I’m also sprinkling the moneyline, as I think Indiana has a real shot at winning this game.
Under Doc Rivers, Milwaukee is 0-4 both SU and ATS when coming off a home game. The Bucks also haven’t been a good bet against teams that are similarly bad defensively, as they’re 10-13 SU and 10-12-1 ATS against opponents that allow at least 116.0 points per game.
Bet: Pacers +5.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Pacers ML (+180 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 22nd
Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 pm ET
My jaw legitimately dropped when I saw Dyson Daniels’ point total for tonight. Sure, he has scored fewer than 13 points in two of the last three games, and he’s not exactly known for his scoring prowess. But the 21-year-old is averaging 14.6 points per game this season, and he has scored at least 13 points in eight of the 14 games he has played. Daniels has also had four games with at least 18 points, which shows that he is capable of going much bigger than expected on any given night. Outside of Trae Young, the Hawks have an equal-opportunity offense. That said, there will be chances for Daniels to make plays, especially against the Bulls.
Chicago is 27th in the league in defensive rating (117.4), and the team is also first in the league in pace of play. In fact, these are the top-two teams in basketball when it comes to pace, so this is going to be an up-and-down affair. That means plenty of transition opportunities to go around, and Daniels is explosive in the open court. Daniels should also be able to knock down a triple or two in this one, as Chicago will test his outside shot.
Realistically, I’m not asking Daniels to do anything he hasn’t done before. He had 16 points in a meeting with the Bulls on November 9th. And while I know Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter being back threatens everybody’s minutes, I’d be surprised if Quin Snyder can’t find at least 30 for a defender of Daniels’ caliber.
Bet: Daniels Over 12.5 Points (-135 – 1.5 units)
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
With Luka Doncic out for a week, get ready for a significant increase in usage for Kyrie Irving. Doncic is fourth in the NBA in usage (33.0%) this season, and the entire Dallas offense is built around him pounding the ball and making plays. That said, there will now be a lot of touches to go around, but the Mavericks will likely opt to just keep things the same way. That said, Irving, who has a usage rate of 24.3% this season, should see his usage rise to at least 30.0% with Doncic out. And while that should allow him to turn things up a notch as a scorer, I like him to go Over his assist total against the Nuggets tonight.
Irving has actually had at least six assists in five of his last six games, and asking for one more in a significantly bigger on-ball role feels very reasonable. Irving also happened to have seven dimes in just 27 minutes against the Pelicans last game, and he has had three games this season in which he has reached tonight’s mark.
Denver also happens to be just 14th in the league in defensive rating (112.1), so this isn’t a great defense he’s facing. And the Nuggets are allowing more assists per game (29.5) than all but one team in the NBA this year.
I know Irving torched the Nuggets as a scorer just two weeks ago, scoring 43 points on 17 for 22 shooting from the floor and 6 for 8 shooting from 3. But Doncic was on the floor in that game, so Irving was a secondary thought for the Denver defense. Now, the main focus for the Nuggets will be avoiding Irving’s scoring flurries. That should allow him to pick up some easy assists.
Bet: Irving Over 6.5 Assists (-133)
Teasers/Parlays/Late Added Plays
Nothing yet.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 67-56 (+10.86 units)
