The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, November 29th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 29th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 27th
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angele Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
I’m not really liking what I’m seeing out of the Lakers lately. Sure, Los Angeles burned me in beating San Antonio on Wednesday. I was on the wrong side of that one. However, the Lakers are still 23rd in the league in defensive rating (116.5) over the last 10 games. They’re really struggling to get stops. Meanwhile, the Thunder have Isaiah Hartenstein back in the mix, and they’re starting to look like an impenetrable force defensively — and that’s without Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren. Over the last 10 games, Oklahoma City is fifth in the league in defensive rating (108.4). That’s a huge edge to the Thunder defensively. Oklahoma City also isn’t far off from Los Angeles in offensive rating over the 10-game span. The Lakers are at 117.6 and the Thunder are at 116.0.
I’m very worried about JJ Redick’s group defensively in this matchup. If the Lakers are overaggressive in defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they will pay for it. Los Angeles is allowing opponents to shoot 37.5% from deep over the last 10 games, and Oklahoma City has plenty of capable shooters. But the Lakers also don’t have anybody that can come even remotely close to defending Gilgeous-Alexander in isolation situations, so a difficult decision is going to have to be made there. It also looks like Jalen Williams is going to play tonight, which is huge after seeing him miss the second half of the win over the Warriors the other day.
Overall, this just feels like a perfect matchup for Oklahoma City. The Thunder will be able to score against this struggling Lakers defense. And then they’ll look to lock things down on the other end of the floor. These are also the types of games in which you want to back Oklahoma City. Under Mark Daigneault, the Thunder are 35-23 ATS when playing teams with winning percentages between 60.0% and 70.0%.
Bet: Thunder -1.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 29th
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 2:30 pm ET
I had this play the other day and was very fortunate to win. Trae Young shot terribly in Atlanta’s upset over Cleveland, going 3 for 13 from 3-point range. And the shot he made to cash the Over on 2.5 was a 39-footer late in the shot clock, and he did that with 1:23 left in the game. However, the volume is really all that matters to me. If Young is going to take 10 or more 3s, I like his chances of knocking down three of them. This is a career 35.3% 3-point shooter we’re talking about, and he’s facing a Cleveland team that does tend to give up good looks to opposing point guards. That said, I’m not shying away after what I saw the other night. I’m actually going a little bigger on it, as Young is due to break out of his recent mini-slump. Young shot 37.3% from 3 last year, but he’s at 32.5% this season. He’s also just 7 for 33 from deep over the last five games. Positive regression is coming.
Bet: Young Over 2.5 Made 3s (-111 – 1.5 units)
Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers – 8:00 pm ET
I have noted how outrageous Tyrese Haliburton’s home/away splits are, but let’s run it back again. This season, the Indiana guard is averaging just 12.3 points, 8.3 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game on the road, and he’s shooting a miserable 31.8% from the floor and 22.7% from 3. However, when playing at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Haliburton is averaging 23.1 points, 9.4 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game, and he’s doing it on 47.0% shooting from the floor and 43.3% shooting from 3 (on 10.0 attempts per game). With that in mind, I’m throwing out a performance in which Haliburton shot 6 for 18 from the field and 1 for 9 from 3 and finished with 15 points, five rebounds and four assists against the Pistons on October 23rd. He’s a completely different player when playing in the true basketball capital of the world. Sure, Detroit is a solid defensive team, especially at the point of attack. But that shouldn’t matter much. Haliburton is going to be launching 3s and attacking the basket in this one. So, he should make a good dent in this number with his points alone. Then, he’ll continue to carve up defenses with his pick-and-roll decision making, as he always does. Whatever he adds as a rebounder is gravy.
Bet: Haliburton Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
PARLAY: Timberwolves ML vs. Clippers & Heat ML vs. Raptors (+102 – 1.5 units)
Amen Thompson To Win 6th Man of the Year (20-1) – I made a case for this on A Numbers Game today, and it’s an official add for me. You can find it at FanDuel at 20-1, yet it’s as low as +400 elsewhere. Thompson is third in the league in Defensive EPM right now, and a good argument can be made that he has been the best wing defender in basketball this year. Thompson is also averaging 11.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He is stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis, and he’s doing it for a Houston team that is second in the Western Conference standings. Nobody is making a bigger impact off the bench, so it’s crazy this number is available.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 81-75 (+3.87 units)
