I gave away some futures in the 2024-25 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, and one of those was San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle to win Rookie of the Year. However, I did add some picks based on what I saw in the preseason. One of those was a small play on the Miami Heat to go Over 43.5 wins. But the most exciting addition I made was a 13-1 shot on Washington Wizards big man Alexandre Sarr to win Rookie of the Year.
Sarr didn’t play college basketball last season, so he didn’t have a chance to impress the general betting public. Instead, Sarr opted to play for the Perth Wildcats as part of the NBL’s Next Stars program. In Australia, Sarr averaged 9.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, and he impressed scouts with his advanced defensive abilities and offensive potential as a face-up big. That skill set actually had Sarr as the favorite to go first in the 2024 NBA Draft for almost the entire year. But in the end, Sarr ended up going second overall because of a refusal to play nice with the Atlanta Hawks, who ended up taking Zaccharie Risacher with the top pick.
Generally speaking, the players that spend the year as the top prospects head into their rookie NBA seasons as some of the betting favorites to win Rookie of the Year. However this year is an exception. Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey and Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard sit atop the oddsboard in this market, and Risacher is currently sitting at third. However, three other players are currently above Sarr, as Chicago Bulls wing Matas Buzelis is fourth and then Castle and Los Angeles Lakers wing Dalton Knecht are tied for fifth. That means that Sarr, who many viewed as the best overall prospect in this draft, has six players above him. That was enough to trigger a play for me. Part of this is a “bet on principle,” as my friend and colleague Jonathan Von Tobel likes to say. A top prospect like Sarr simply shouldn’t be sitting this far down the board. However, there are real basketball reasons to jump on this bet.
The only reason Sarr is sitting so low is because of his performance in Vegas Summer League. In four Summer League games, Sarr averaged 5.5 points per game on 19.1% shooting from the floor and 11.8% shooting from 3. He was absolutely pitiful offensively, which led to him being a punching bag on social media for weeks. And people seemingly abandoned him as a prospect.
Summer League isn’t for everybody. While you’d like to see a top prospect perform at a high level, the games aren’t always competitive, the guard play can be a nightmare and the spacing can be clunky. Sarr clearly wasn’t comfortable out there, and his confidence probably dipped a bit with everybody calling out his poor play. But he looked like a completely different player in preseason.
In three preseason games, Sarr averaged 11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.7 blocks per game in 22.7 minutes per game. Sarr also shot 48.1% from the floor and 53.8% from deep in those games. He just seemed much more at ease playing with real NBA talent, and it isn’t surprising given the way he likes to play. As of this moment, Sarr is mostly a play finisher and a spot-up shooter. He needs room to operate and the NBA game will give him that.
Of course, I don’t expect Sarr to shoot 53.8% on 3s all year. He shot only 28.6% from deep with Perth last season. But I think he’s going to be a lot closer to 35.0% than he will be to the 11.8% he shot in Vegas. He has a nice looking jumper and has no problem with the distance of the NBA 3-point line.
Overall, I just don’t think there’s much preventing Sarr from flirting with double figures in scoring. The Wizards can easily carve out 30 minutes per night for the 19-year-old and I’d be shocked if they don’t end up doing it. Everybody on the planet knows this Washington team is bad, so there’s no reason to put off the inevitable and ease him into action. Head coach Brian Keefe is going to play the kids early and he’s going to play them often.
If Sarr does end up averaging a decent amount of points, it’s hard to imagine him not being a factor in the Rookie of the Year race. Sarr’s ability to impact games as a defender can’t be denied. He moves his feet well enough to guard quicker power forwards, and he uses his length to disrupt centers. Sure, Sarr will probably struggle with foul trouble a bit early on. After all, he’s going to be giving up 50+ pounds in certain matchups. But he’ll figure it out quickly enough and could be one of the better defensive rookies in the league.
I get why Edey is the favorite in this market, and I even praised the Grizzlies big man when I dished out some of my big preseason takeaways. But Edey does have some very real defensive question marks, so it might be hard for head coach Taylor Jenkins to play him 30 or more minutes each night. And I’m not sure anybody else should be listed above Sarr, who is guaranteed to be a huge part of his team’s rotation and proved in preseason that his Summer League showing was a fluke. That even goes for Castle, who was my first play in this market. We have just gone way too far in the other direction with Sarr, so I’m grabbing this favorable number and hoping for the best.
