With the NBA’s 2023-24 season about to tip off, it’s a perfect time to take an in-depth look at the season schedule and plot an attack taking advantage of the various scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
For the last two seasons, the NBA has returned to its normal scheduling, with a late October start and June finish. For bettors who study schedule and rest patterns like myself, it is welcomed normalcy after COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the schedule for two straight seasons.
With that in mind, I have always believed that in sports that are played with multiple games each week in an inconsistent format, how a team’s schedule is laid out can have a huge impact on its performance. The simple fact is that teams fare better in certain scheduling spots than others, and there are many debatable reasons for this.
Thus, what I’ve done here is dug into my NBA database over the last few seasons to see if there were specific spots that we want to make note of on the 2023-24 schedule. I’ve detailed a sampling of five of the top angles that have developed and the spots in which they will apply. In the past, I would have implored you to hang on to this article as I have the past few seasons, but rest easy, because if you are a VSiNPro Subscriber, you will have access to all of these qualified systems on a daily basis in our upcoming NBA Analytics Reports. Plus, we will be tracking 45 other top scheduling systems!
Below you will find five sample scheduling situational systems that have produced noteworthy results for bettors over the last few seasons. All of these scheduling situations have produced an ATS or O-U winning percentage of 60% or higher.
One key note for 2023-24: Each team was prescheduled for 80 games with the additional two being played in a first-ever in-season tournament to be run from 11/3-12/9. Those inserted games could impact each team’s qualifying for the systems as shown below. We will track these in the analytics reports.
Here is a brief explanation of each of the scheduling situations I have analyzed. For those of you using my NBA Strength Ratings throughout the season, you’ll recognize that the game-to-game scenarios are the same terms I use for each daily game’s projections:
OneDayRest: Team playing with the standard full day of NBA rest scenario (Sunday to Tuesday, etc.)
TwoDaysRest: Team playing with two full days of rest between games (Sunday to Wednesday, etc.)
3+DaysRest: Team playing with three full days of rest or more (Sunday to Thursday, etc.)
OneDayRest @HOME: Team playing with the standard full day of NBA rest scenario and playing at home
OneDayRest onRoad: Team playing with the standard full day of NBA rest scenario and playing on the road
TwoDaysRest @Home: Team playing with two full days of rest between games and playing at home
TwoDaysRest onRoad: Team playing with two full days of rest between games and playing on the road
3+DaysRest @HOME: Team playing with three full days of rest or more and playing at home
3+DaysRest onRoad: Team playing with three full days of rest or more and playing on the road
3rdGamein4Days: Team playing its third game overall in a four-day span
3rdHomein4Days: Team playing its third home game in a four-day span
3rdRoadin4Days: Team playing its third road game in a four-day span
3rdStraightHome: Team playing its third (or more) straight game at home
3rdStraightRoad: Team playing its third (or more) straight game on the road
3rdGamein8+Days: Well-rested team playing its third game overall in an eight-day or more span
4thGamein6Days: Team playing its fourth game in a six-day span
4thHomein6Days: Team playing its fourth home game in a six-day span
4thRoadin6Days: Team playing its fourth road game in a six-day span
4thStraightHome: Team playing its fourth (or more) straight game at home
4thStraightRoad: Team playing its fourth (or more) straight game on the road
4thGamein10+Days: Well-rested team playing its fourth game overall in a 10-day or more span
A2A b2b: Team playing its second road game in back-to-back days
A2H b2b: Team playing at home after a road game the prior day
H2A b2b: Team playing on the road after a home game the prior day
H2H b2b: Team playing at home for a second straight day
Five sample NBA scheduling situations (teams qualifying for the system are denoted in ALL CAPS)
Teams on 3+DaysRest are 160-105 SU and 156-101 ATS (60.7%) versus teams playing on OneDayRest over the last three seasons.
11/12: DENVER at Houston
11/12: PORTLAND at LA Lakers
11/12: CHICAGO vs. Detroit
11/12: NEW YORK vs. Charlotte
11/14: UTAH vs. Portland
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
11/21: ATLANTA vs. Indiana
11/24: DETROIT at Indiana
11/24: NEW YORK vs. Miami
11/26: PORTLAND at Milwaukee
11/26: CHARLOTTE at Orlando
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
12/27: CLEVELAND at Dallas
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
1/21: LA CLIPPERS vs. Brooklyn
1/22: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
1/24: GOLDEN STATE vs. Atlanta
1/26: ORLANDO at Memphis
2/10: OKLAHOMA CITY at Dallas
2/11: MIAMI vs. Boston
2/12: MINNESOTA at La Clippers
2/12: UTAH vs. Golden State
2/29: PHOENIX vs. Houston
3/5: NEW ORLEANS at Toronto
3/20: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Utah
3/22: LA LAKERS vs. Philadelphia
3/23: CHARLOTTE at Atlanta
3/25: DALLAS at Utah
3/31: TORONTO vs. Philadelphia
Home teams on 3+DaysRest are 18-9 SU and 17-3-7 ATS (85%) versus teams playing on a 4thStraightRoad game over the last two seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
11/24: NEW YORK vs. Miami
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
12/11: LA CLIPPERS vs. Portland
12/11: PHILADELPHIA vs. Washington
2/13: LA LAKERS vs. Detroit
2/22: INDIANA vs. Detroit
2/22: SACRAMENTO vs. San Antonio
Home teams on 2DaysRest are 98-72 SU but 67-102 ATS (39.6%) versus teams playing a 3StraightRoad game over the last three seasons.
10/31: FADE CLEVELAND vs. New York
11/8: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Washington
11/13: FADE SACRAMENTO vs. Cleveland
11/15: FADE PHOENIX vs. Minnesota
11/25: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Miami
12/18: FADE LA LAKERS vs. New York
12/21: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA Clippers
12/22: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Washington
12/23: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
12/26: FADE SAN ANTONIO vs. Utah
12/28: FADE DENVER vs. Memphis
12/29: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
1/1: FADE DENVER vs. Charlotte
1/1: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Miami
1/3: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Miami
1/9: FADE NEW YORK vs. Portland
1/15: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. Houston
1/24: FADE HOUSTON vs. Portland
1/24: FADE MIAMI vs. Memphis
1/29: FADE CLEVELAND vs. La Clippers
1/30: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
2/2: FADE ATLANTA vs. Phoenix
2/3: FADE CHICAGO vs. Sacramento
2/3: FADE DALLAS vs. Milwaukee
2/4: FADE UTAH vs. Milwaukee
2/5: FADE NEW ORLEANS vs. Toronto
2/10: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Detroit
2/12: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Denver
2/13: FADE PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
2/25: FADE UTAH vs. San Antonio
2/26: FADE MEMPHIS vs. Brooklyn
2/27: FADE MINNESOTA vs. San Antonio
3/1: FADE BOSTON vs. Dallas
3/8: FADE NEW YORK vs. Orlando
3/9: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Chicago
3/12: FADE UTAH vs. Boston
3/13: FADE ORLANDO vs. Brooklyn
3/16: FADE INDIANA vs. Brooklyn
3/16: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Golden State
3/17: FADE DALLAS vs. Denver
3/17: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Phoenix
3/22: FADE SAN ANTONIO vs. Memphis
3/29: FADE MIAMI vs. Portland
3/29: FADE SACRAMENTO vs. Dallas
4/6: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Detroit
4/6: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Cleveland
4/9: FADE ATLANTA vs. Miami
4/12: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. Orlando
OVER the total was 17-9 (65.4%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rdin4Days game.
10/28: OVER the total in DETROIT-CHICAGO
10/30: OVER the total in DENVER-UTAH
11/2: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-DETROIT
11/15: OVER the total in ATLANTA-NEW YORK
11/20: OVER the total in DETROIT-DENVER
11/22: OVER the total in INDIANA-TORONTO
11/22: OVER the total in PORTLAND-UTAH
12/21: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-LA LAKERS
12/23: OVER the total in TORONTO-UTAH
1/5: OVER the total in DENVER-ORLANDO
1/6: OVER the total in WASHINGTON-NEW YORK
1/8: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-PHOENIX
1/30: OVER the total in NEW YORK-UTAH
2/10: OVER the total in WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA
3/6: OVER the total in ATLANTA-CLEVELAND
3/18: OVER the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
4/10: OVER the total in DENVER-MINNESOTA
4/10: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-PHOENIX
4/10: OVER the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
4/12: OVER the total in GOLDEN STATE-NEW ORLEANS
UNDER the total was 23-14 (62.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.
11/8: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-LA CLIPPERS
11/12: UNDER the total in LA LAKERS-PORTLAND
11/19: UNDER the total in LA LAKERS-HOUSTON
12/13: UNDER the total in DETROIT-PHILADELPHIA
12/13: UNDER the total in HOUSTON-MEMPHIS
12/13: UNDER the total in MIAMI-CHARLOTTE
12/13: UNDER the total in MILWAUKEE-INDIANA
12/13: UNDER the total in SAN ANTONIO-LA LAKERS
12/13: UNDER the total in TORONTO-ATLANTA
12/13: UNDER the total in UTAH-NEW YORK
12/13: UNDER the total in WASHINGTON-NEW ORLEANS
12/14: UNDER the total in DALLAS-MINNESOTA
12/14: UNDER the total in LA CLIPPERS-GOLDEN STATE
12/14: UNDER the total in SACRAMENTO-OKLAHOMA CITY
2/24: UNDER the total in DETROIT-ORLANDO
2/24: UNDER the total in NEW YORK-BOSTON
2/25: UNDER the total in LA CLIPPERS-SACRAMENTO
2/25: UNDER the total in NEW ORLEANS-CHICAGO
2/25: UNDER the total in PHILADELPHIA-MILWAUKEE
3/8: UNDER the total in PHILADELPHIA-NEW ORLEANS
3/23: UNDER the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
