The NBA season might have just come to an end, but on Thursday all 30 teams in the league descend upon Sin City for the annual basketball convention known as the Las Vegas Summer League.
For 10 days teams comprised of rookies, fledgling prospects and journeymen looking for a contract will compete. At the end, there will be a champion crowned. In the grand scheme of things the results at the Thomas & Mack Center and Cox Pavilion will mean nothing.
For starved basketball bettors looking for some action, it will mean everything.
Betting the Summer League is very similar to any sort of preseason betting. Information is key. Unlike the coverage certain sports like the NFL get, that coverage is not plentiful. In fact, it might be best for bettors on the ground in Las Vegas.
Kelley Bydlon – A Numbers Game producer and friend of mine – and I like to tell the story of us watching a game in the arena two summers ago in which we just noticed three key rotational players not warming up for the Detroit Pistons. We got down on the other side and walked away victorious.
That is the game you play when betting on these games individually. However, you can evaluate these rosters as a whole and get some good positions on teams to win the whole thing.
Second or third-year players are vital to success. Time and again those types of players have dominated in this setting. The game-speed is so much slower in Summer League games compared to regular season basketball. If a player has a good amount of regular seasons games played it can be vital.
It also helps to have veteran college players, specifically at guard. More physically and mentally mature ball-handlers can make a massive difference when a team was constructed on the fly just days prior to the event.
For those interested in doing their own handicapping I have compiled all of the officially announced rosters for the Summer League in a document for your use. Only the Celtics – as of Tuesday morning – have yet to announce an official roster.
The Format
It’s a simple format for those who are unfamiliar. Each team will play four “regular season games” over the course of the first week. After those games are played the top four teams will advance to a single-elimination tournament for the right to call themselves Summer League Champion.
With only four games serving as the “regular season” there will be teams that end up tied. The tiebreakers are as follows:
Two Teams Tied – In the case of a tie in preliminary round records involving only two teams, the following criteria, in order, are utilized:
1. Head-to-head matchup: The team that won the game between the two teams in the preliminary round, if applicable, receives the higher seed.
2. Point differential: The team with the greater point differential receives the higher seed.
3. Total Points: The team with the most total points will receive the higher seed
4. Random drawing: If necessary, the higher seed will be determined by a “coin flip”.
More Than Two Teams Tied – In the case of a tie in preliminary round records involving more than two teams, the following criteria, in order, were utilized:
1. Point differential: The team with the greater point differential receives the higher seed.
2. Total Points: The team with the most total points will receive the higher seed
3. Random drawing: The higher seed shall be determined by a “coin flip.”
Best Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder (+1600)
In the storied history of the Las Vegas Summer League – which began the championship format in 2013 – we have never seen a Finals champion win the league. We could have history this summer.
Oklahoma City has an intriguing roster for the summer basketball convention in Sin City, and it begins with their lottery selection from 2024: Nikola Topic.
Topic had the potential to be a top-five selection in last year’s draft, but an ACL injury caused him to slip to the Thunder. He is a 6-foot-6 point guard with a multifaceted game. Topic was also the youngest player ever to play in the EuroLeague. He has talent and experience in playing at a professional level. That will be a vital tool when playing glorified pick-up hoops in Las Vegas. This is allegedly the first time Topic has played five-on-five since the injury, which could be a negative, but it also means the Thunder will allow him to participate in every game. In two California contests he put up 25 points, eight assists, four rebounds and five steals. He needs to work on his efficiency as well – he went 8-for-24 in two games – but he can stuff the stat sheet.
Oklahoma City also has another intriguing second-year player on the floor this summer in Ajay Mitchell. The second-year guard not only played in 36 games this season, but 12 postseason games as well. That includes 12 minutes in Game 6 of the Finals. Mitchell could also be a dominant force for the Thunder in Vegas. He dropped 40 points in two California games.
There are some interesting names on this roster that college fans will recognize too that could have success in Brooks Barnhizer (Northwestern) and Alex Ducas (St. Mary’s).
Memphis Grizzlies (+2000)
One of the keys to having success in the Summer League is the presence of a second-year player who has logged decent minutes his rookie season. Jaylen Wells is exactly that.
Wells averaged 25.9 minutes in 79 games in the regular season. He put up 10.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per contest. According to Cleaning The Glass, he improved Memphis’ net rating by 0.9 points per 100 possessions. That might not sound like much, but getting a player who positively impacted an NBA team over 79 games in a setting like this is massive.
Bettors have already seen the impact Wells can have in these games. In the California Classic the second-year guard has scored 43 points. He needs to work on his efficiency – he is 11-of-32 from the floor – but his physical advantage is obvious. That has translated to 15 free throw attempts in the two games. If Wells plays the entirety of the Vegas Summer League he can be an MVP contender.
The same could be said for GG Jackson.
Jackson’s second season in the league was much less impactful than his first. An injury kept him sidelined until January. He ended up averaging only 15.8 minutes in 29 games for the Grizzlies. Still, he is a third-year player who has 77 regular season games under his belt. Jackson lit up Salt Lake City with 47 points on 57.6% shooting. Like Wells, he is a Summer League MVP candidate should he play enough.
Those two are enough in a short window to carry the Grizzlies to the Summer League championship game. Relying on two players that have good standing within their organization is a risk. There is always a chance the front office pulls them in fear of injury. But, should Memphis allow them to play in Las Vegas, the Grizzlies might have the best tandem in the league.
Atlanta Hawks (+8500)
This team is such a good example of the extreme discrepancies you can find in pricing for the Vegas Summer League. Station Casinos in Las Vegas has the Hawks priced at +2500 to win the whole thing. BetMGM and FanDuel have +8500 on Atlanta. Shop around!
This is a good price for a team with some interesting pieces on its roster. The crown jewel could be guard Kobe Bufkin.
Bufkin was selected with the No. 15 pick in the 2023 draft by Atlanta, but injuries have derailed the start of his career. In two seasons the former Michigan guard has played in just 27 games. However, he is considered good to go for the Summer League, and given how little the Hawks have seen of him, I suspect he will play as much as possible in Las Vegas.
Outside of Bufkin, my intrigue with Atlanta is due to some standout college players getting some run for the first time in an NBA uniform.
Asa Newell – the Hawks’ first round pick this year – was a great college big man. He averaged 15.4 points and 6.9 rebounds for Georgia on 54.3% shooting. If he gets good guard play – which he could if Bufkin is right – he could thrive.
Former New Mexico center Nelly Junior Joseph joins Newell in the frontcourt for the summer, and that could give the Hawks a great rotation down low. Joseph averaged 14.2 points and 11 rebounds for the Lobos in 25 games last season on 55.8% shooting.
Lamont Butler – former San Diego State and Kentucky guard – and Deivon Smith were two long tenured college guards as well. I like older guards who had lengthy college careers in a setting like the Summer League. Players like Butler and Smith have played a lot of basketball and in different settings. That can only help them adapt to playing on a newly built team like this one.
