The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, April 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 76-65-3 (53.9%). Here are today’s results: 

– BOSTON (-19.5 vs. CHA)
Two extreme stat systems and recent head-to-head trend favor BOS

– ORL-IND OVER 210
DK Betting Splits system #14 and both Makinen ratings projections favor OVER

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* DETROIT is on a 20-9 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-DET (o/u at 231.5)

* MIAMI is 15-4 ATS in the lat 19 head-to-head games versus New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-15 at NOP)

* Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 256-307-4 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs. SAS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, ATLANTA, MIAMI, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA CLIPPERS, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DETROIT, NEW YORK, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DALLAS, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, ATLANTA, NEW YORK, CHICAGO, DENVER, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA ML, MIAMI ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-NYK, TOR-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – MEM-DEN, SAS-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-MIN, MIA-NOP, CHA-BOS, ORL-IND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 46-31 SU and 44-30-3 ATS (59.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
4/11: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-8.5 vs. ORL)

* Under the total was 129-104-1 (55.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
4/11: Under the total in INDIANA-ORLANDO
4/11: Under the total in PHOENIX-SAN ANTONIO
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-IND (o/u at 213.5), SAS-PHX (o/u at 232.5) 

* PHOENIX is 25-19 SU but 15-27-2 ATS in its last 44 3rd Straight Home games
4/11: Fade PHOENIX vs. San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE ATS): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs. SAS)

* Over the total was 104-91 (53.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
4/11: Over the total in CLEVELAND-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 225.5) 

* Over the total was 64-56 (53.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
4/11: Over the total in DENVER-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-DEN (o/u at 244.5) 

* ATLANTA is on 11-37 SU and 13-34-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
4/11: Fade ATLANTA at Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-11 at PHI)

* ATLANTA is 52-29 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
4/11: Over the total in ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-PHI (o/u at 240.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 50-60 SU and 47-63 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
4/11: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Portland
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-14.5 at POR) 

* PORTLAND is 35-71 SU and 43-63 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
4/11: Fade PORTLAND vs. Golden State
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+14.5 vs. GSW)

* HOUSTON is 14-34 SU and 17-31 ATS in its last 48 3rd Straight Road games
4/11: Fade HOUSTON at La Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+10 at LAL)

* LA LAKERS are on a 25-32 SU and 25-31-1 ATS skid in the last 57 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
4/11: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Houston
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-10 vs. HOU) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 26-27 SU and 19-34 ATS skid in its last 53 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
4/11: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Sacramento
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6 at SAC) 

* WASHINGTON is on 12-14 SU but 16-9 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
4/11: WASHINGTON at Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at CHI)

* DETROIT is on a 20-9 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
4/11: Under the total in DETROIT-MILWAUKEE
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-DET (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 149-54 SU and 121-81-1 ATS (59.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-5 vs CLE)
*watch for LA LAKERS vs HOU, -10 currently

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 264-47 SU but just 146-159-6 ATS (47.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): MIAMI (-15 at NOP), DALLAS (-12.5 vs. TOR), MINNESOTA (-20.5 vs. BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 110-90 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 222-174 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 283-217 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-PHI (o/u at 240.5), CHA-BOS (o/u at 213.5), WSH-CHI (o/u at 238.5), MIA-NOP (o/u at 214), TOR-DAL (o/u at 224), BKN-MIN (o/u at 216), GSW-POR (o/u at 224.5), HOU-LAL (o/u at 225) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 250-133 SU but 177-198-8 ATS (47.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-20.5 vs. BKN) 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 148-55 SU and 119-82-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 203 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-19.5 vs. CHA)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 277-145 SU but just 179-230-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-9 vs. ORL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 311-265 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-PHI (o/u at 241) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 293-307 SU and 270-322-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (+6.5 at DEN), LA CLIPPERS (-6 at SAC), HOUSTON (+10 at LAL) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 335-302 SU but 289-328-18 ATS (46.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (+20.5 at MIN), MINNESOTA (-20.5 vs. BKN), HOUSTON (+10 at LAL) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 167-180 SU and 157-180-10 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (+20.5 at MIN), HOUSTON (+10 at LAL) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 181-153 SU and 185-139-10 ATS (57.1%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-19.5 vs CHA), ORLANDO (+9 at IND)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 197-76 SU and 144-126-3 ATS (53.3%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-11 at PHI), LA CLIPPERS (-6 at SAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 128-23 SU but 65-83-3 ATS (43.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): INDIANA (*if they become a double-digit favorite vs. ORL, -9 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 75-18 SU and 52-38-3 ATS (57.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (*if they fall into this line range at SAC, -6 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 256-307-4 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs. SAS) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +14.5 (+2.9)
2. MEMPHIS +7 (+2.6)
3. PHILADELPHIA +11 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -4 (+3.6)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.5)
3. MINNESOTA -20.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +11 (+6.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO +5.5 (+4.8)
3. MEMPHIS +7 (+3.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -4 (+4.3)
2. DALLAS -12.5 (+3.1)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-IND OVER 213.5 (+2.4)
2. GSW-POR OVER 224.5 (+2.2)
3. CHA-BOS OVER 213.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-NOP UNDER 214 (-2.2)
2. LAC-SAC UNDER 225.5 (-1.4)
3. MEM-DEN UNDER 244.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +16.5 (+3.6)
2. MEMPHIS +7 (+2.5)
3. PORTLAND +14.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -4 (+4.6)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+2.2)
3. PHOENIX -5.5 (+2.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-BOS OVER 213.5 (+5.7)
2. ATL-PHI OVER 240.5 (+2.7)
3. ORL-IND OVER 213.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-MIN UNDER 216.5 (-4.7)
2. LAC-SAC UNDER 225.5 (-2.9)
3. MIA-NOP UNDER 214 (-2.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) ATLANTA at (514) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total has converted in seven straight games between ATL and PHI
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(515) MILWAUKEE at (516) DETROIT
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the MIL-DET head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(517) CHARLOTTE at (518) BOSTON
* BOSTON 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 games hosting CHA
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON 

(519) CLEVELAND at (520) NEW YORK
* Under the total has converted in seven straight games between CLE and NYK at New York
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(521) WASHINGTON at (522) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the WSH-CHI head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(523) MIAMI at (524) NEW ORLEANS
* MIAMI is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 head-to-head games versus New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(525) TORONTO at (526) DALLAS
* TORONTO is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head games versus DAL
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(527) MEMPHIS at (528) DENVER
* DENVER has won five straight SU and ATS when hosting MEM
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER 

(529) BROOKLYN at (530) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head games hosting BKN
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS 

(531) OKLAHOMA CITY at (532) UTAH
* Over the total is 9-2-1 in the last 12 of the OKC-UTA head-to-head divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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