The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are on an extended run of 16-5 ATS in the last 21 of the IND-BOS series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+12.5 at BOS)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 18-30 SU and 17-30-1 ATS (36.2%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (+7 vs. SAS), HOUSTON (-1 vs. MIN)

*NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 142-163 SU and 138-160-7 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-3 at DEN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trends and strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, MEMPHIS, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MINNESOTA, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, PHOENIX ML, LA CLIPPERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS ML, LA CLIPPERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Over’s. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-BKN, IND-BOS, MEM-NOP, DAL-PHX, CLE-DEN, GSW-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-ORL, MIN-HOU
UNDER – SAS-BKN, GSW-LAC 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 185-126 SU and 180-123 ATS (59.4%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
12/27: LA CLIPPERS vs. Golden State
12/27: CLEVELAND at Denver
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs. GSW), CLEVELAND (-3 at DEN)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 64-31 SU and 59-34-2 ATS (63.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
12/27: LA CLIPPERS vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs GSW) 

* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 24-10 SU and 22-12 ATS (64.7%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
12/27: DENVER vs. Cleveland
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3 vs. CLE)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 18-30 SU and 17-30-1 ATS (36.2%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
12/27: FADE BROOKLYN vs. San Antonio
12/27: FADE HOUSTON vs. Minnesota
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (+7 vs. SAS), HOUSTON (-1 vs. MIN) 

* Over the total was 112-77 (59.3%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
12/27: Over the total in DENVER-CLEVELAND
12/27: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-LA CLIPPERS
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-DEN (o/u at 235.5), GSW-LAC (o/u at 212)

* Over the total was 55-40 (57.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/27: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-LAC (o/u at 212) 

* Over the total was 51-40 (56%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/27: OVER the total in BOSTON-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BOS (o/u at 231.5) 

* Over the total is 30-18 (62.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/27: Over the total in BROOKLYN-SAN ANTONIO
12/27: Over the total in HOUSTON-MINNESOTA
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-BKN (o/u at 213.5), MIN-HOU (o/u at 212) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 39-54 SU and 36-57 ATS when playing on the road on OneDayRest
12/27: Fade GOLDEN STATE at LA Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+4.5 at LAC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-143 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 238-183 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BOS (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 212-123 SU but 150-179-6 ATS (45.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-9 at NOP) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 251-133 SU but just 164-208-12 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-7 at ORL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 278-257 SU and 239-283-11 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-12.5 vs IND), CLEVELAND (-3 at DEN)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 142-163 SU and 138-160-7 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-3 at DEN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 61-16 SU and 44-31-2 ATS (58.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (*if they get to -7.5 or higher vs Orlando, -7 currently)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 206-258-3 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-117 SU and 60-79-5 ATS (43.2%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+9 vs. MEM)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +9 (+1.4)
2(tie). DENVER +3 (+0.6)
DALLAS +1 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -12.5 (+2.2)
2. LA CLIPPERS -4.5 (+1.1)
3. SAN ANTONIO -7 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +9 (+3.0)
2. DENVER +3 (+2.2)
3. INDIANA +12.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -1 (+1.3)
2. PHOENIX -1 (+0.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO -7 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-PHX OVER 223.5 (+1.6)
2. IND-BOS OVER 231 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-NOP UNDER 237 (-2.1)
2. MIN-HOU UNDER 212.5 (-1.2)
3. GSW-LAC UNDER 212 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +9 (+3.1)
2. DENVER +3 (+1.5)
3. DALLAS +1 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -12.5 (+2.6)
2(tie). SAN ANTONIO -7 (+0.5)
HOUSTON -1 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-PHX OVER 223.5 (+3.0)
2. NYK-ORL OVER 213.5 (+1.4)
3. GSW-LAC OVER 212 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-HOU UNDER 212.5 (-1.8)
2. MEM-NOP UNDER 237 (-1.7)
3. SAS-BKN UNDER 213.5 (-1.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(519) NEW YORK at (520) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the NYK-ORL series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS 

(521) SAN ANTONIO at (522) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 5-1 ATS in the last six games hosting SAS
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(523) INDIANA at (524) BOSTON
* Underdogs are on an extended run of 16-5 ATS in the last 21 of the IND-BOS series
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between IND and BOS
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(525) MEMPHIS at (526) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs have covered five straight ATS in the MEM-NOP rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS 

(529) DALLAS at (530) PHOENIX
* When DAL visits PHX, Under the total is 5-1 in the last six and underdogs have covered five straight ATS
Trends Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS, PLAY UNDER the total 

(531) CLEVELAND at (532) DENVER
* Over the total has converted in six straight meetings between CLE and DEN
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(533) GOLDEN STATE at (534) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS is 5-1 ATS in the last six of the GSW-LAC rivalry in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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