Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30/25: 30-24. Here are today’s results:
– MINNESOTA (-2.5 at UTA)
MIN is underpriced in some Makinen ratings projections and recent head-to-head trend supports MIN
– DEN-DET UNDER 237.5
DK Betting Split System #15, DET scheduling trend, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Under
– OKC-ATL OVER 244.5
ATL scheduling trend, team strength system #5, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams have absolutely dominated the MIN-UTA divisional rivalry lately, going 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings (including Minnesota going 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 visits to Utah)
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 at UTA)
* Under the total has converted in nine straight games when Toronto visits Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in TOR-CHI (o/u at 234)
* NEW ORLEANS is on a 15-3 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-PHX (o/u at 234)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MEMPHIS, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, PORTLAND, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, UTAH, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the HOME side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, PORTLAND, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, INDIANA, CHICAGO, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU, but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-DET, OKC-ATL, NYK-MEM, IND-MIA, TOR-CHI, NOP-PHX, MIN-UTA, LAC-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-DET, NOP-PHX, MIN-UTA
UNDER – OKC-ATL, TOR-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-DET, OKC-ATL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 87-43 SU and 77-48-5 ATS (61.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/28: DETROIT vs. Denver
2/28: UTAH vs. Minnesota
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs. DEN), UTAH (+2.5 vs. MIN)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 46-47 SU and 52-39-2 ATS (57.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/28: LA LAKERS vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs. LAC)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 40-21 SU and 41-19-1 ATS (68.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/28: UTAH vs. Minnesota
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 vs. MIN)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 24-24 SU and 28-20 ATS (58.3%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/28: LA LAKERS vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs. LAC)
* Under the total was 117-95-1 (55.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/28: Under the total in LA LAKERS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LAL (o/u at 220)
* Over the total was 95-80 (54.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/28: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-PHOENIX
2/28: Over the total in DENVER-DETROIT
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NOP-PHX (o/u at 234), DEN-DET (o/u at 237.5)
* Over the total was 94-69 (57.7%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/28: Over the total in LA LAKERS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-LAL (o/u at 220)
* Over the total was 45-36 (55.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
2/28: Over the total in PHOENIX-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-PHX (o/u at 234)
* Over the total was 19-11 (63.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/28: Over the total in LA LAKERS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-LAL (o/u at 220)
* DENVER is on a 3-15 ATS skid (10-8 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
2/28: Fade DENVER at Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2 at DET)
* LA LAKERS are on an 18-31 SU and 18-30-1 ATS skid in the last 49 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
2/28: FADE LA LAKERS vs. LA Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs. LAC)
* MIAMI is on a 9-8 SU but 6-11 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
2/28: Fade MIAMI vs. Indiana
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+4.5 vs. IND)
* ATLANTA is 48-28 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
2/28: Over the total in ATLANTA-OKLAHOMA CITY
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ATL (o/u at 244.5)
* DETROIT is on a 17-7 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/28: Under the total in DETROIT-DENVER
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-DET (o/u at 237.5)
* MINNESOTA is on a 17-4 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
2/28: Over the total in MINNESOTA-UTAH
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-UTA (o/u at 226.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is on a 15-3 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
2/28: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-PHOENIX
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-PHX (o/u at 234)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 145-51 SU and 117-78-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (*if they fall into this line range vs NYK, -4 currently*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less, either way, road teams are on a 105-72 SU and 106-68-3 ATS (60.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2 at CHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 233-44 SU but just 128-143-6 ATS (47.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at ATL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 101-83 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 197-165 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-200 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ATL (o/u at 244.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 235-129 SU, but 165-191-8 ATS (46.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4 vs NYK)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 123-125 SU but 129-104-5 ATS (55.4%), including 92-55-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-7.5 vs. NOP)
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 265-139 SU but just 174-218-12 ATS (44.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4 vs. NYK)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 286-224 SU but 226-269-15 ATS (45.7%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2 vs DEN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 295-250 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-BKN (o/u at 220), LAC-LAL (o/u at 220)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 272-288 SU and 248-304-8 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+2.5 at BOS), MIAMI (+4.5 vs. IND), LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 at LAL)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 304-283 SU but 263-305-17 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-4 vs. NYK), MIAMI (+4.5 vs. IND), BOSTON (-2.5 vs. CLE), BROOKLYN (+2 vs. POR), PHOENIX (-7.5 vs. NOP)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams, coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer, have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 176-145 SU and 181-131-9 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2 vs. TOR)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 184-71 SU and 136-116-3 ATS (54%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs. DEN), MEMPHIS (-4 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at ATL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 233-282-3 ATS (45.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (+2.5 at BOS)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 54-73-1 ATS (42.5%) in the next game, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-2 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (+2.5 at BOS)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +2 (+4.0)
2. DENVER +2 (+2.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+2.6)
2. MEMPHIS -4 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +2 (+5.2)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+2.4)
3. MIAMI +4.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -4 (+4.8)
2. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+0.7)
3. CHICAGO -2 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-PHX OVER 234 (+2.9)
2. TOR-CHI OVER 234 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-BKN UNDER 220 (-3.0)
2(tie). DEN-DET UNDER 237.5 (-1.1)
CLE-BOS UNDER 233 (-1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +2 (+3.2)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+2.8)
3. TORONTO +2 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+3.3)
2. MEMPHIS -4 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-PHX OVER 234 (+3.2)
2. DEN-DET OVER 237.5 (+2.1)
3. CLE-BOS OVER 233 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-BKN UNDER 220 (-3.6)
2. OKC-ATL UNDER 244.5 (-1.6)
3. LAC-LAL UNDER 220 (-0.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) DENVER at (530) DETROIT
* Under the total is 8-2 in the DEN-DET series at Detroit since 2015
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(531) PORTLAND at (532) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the POR-BKN non conference series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(533) CLEVELAND at (534) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 of the CLE-BOS series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(535) OKLAHOMA CITY at (536) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 matchups between OKC and ATL
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(537) INDIANA at (538) MIAMI
* Over the total has converted in seven straight meetings between IND and MIA
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(539) TORONTO at (540) CHICAGO
* Under the total has converted in nine straight games when TOR visits Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(541) NEW YORK at (542) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 8-1-1 in the last 10 of the NYK-MEM series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* Road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games between NYK and MEM
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(543) NEW ORLEANS at (544) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 11-3 in the last 14 of the NOP-PHX series (including an Over in last night’s game)
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(545) MINNESOTA at (546) UTAH
* Road teams have absolutely dominated the MIN-UTA divisional rivalry lately, going 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings (including Minnesota going 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 visits to Utah)
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
