The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Cleveland-Philadelphia series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in CLE-PHI (o/u at 228.5) 

* NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 292-263 SU but 250-290-13 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-11 vs. NOP) 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-79 SU and 44-65-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-5 vs. POR) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND 

Here are some more specific money line angles: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CHARLOTTE ML, MEMPHIS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML 

This last system involves totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that for most NBA Under options over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-CHA

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-79 SU and 44-65-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/24: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Portland
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-5 vs. POR)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 102-68 SU and 103-64-3 ATS (61.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (*if they fall into this line range, +5 currently) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 95-80 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 183-154 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 251-192 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-PHI (o/u at 228.5)
UNDER – NOP-MEM (o/u at 244.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 292-263 SU but 250-290-13 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-11 vs. NOP)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 173-143 SU and 177-130-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+10.5 vs. CLE) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 141-97 SU and 134-97-7 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5 at CHA) 

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 176-66 SU and 130-109-3 ATS (54.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-5 vs POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 104-17 SU BUT 53-66-3 ATS (44.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-11 vs. NOP) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 220-272-3 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-125 SU and 63-84-5 ATS (42.9%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+10.5 vs CLE) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +10.5 (+2.1)
2. PORTLAND +5 (+1.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS -11 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5 (+0.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA +10.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS -11 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLE-PHI OVER 228.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-MEM UNDER 244.5 (-1.7)
2. POR-CHA UNDER 221 (-0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +10.5 (+1.1)
2. PORTLAND +5 (+0.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS -11 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-CHA OVER 221 (+4.0)
2. CLE-PHI OVER 228.5 (+2.7)
3. NOP-MEM OVER 244.5 (+2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) PORTLAND at (502) CHARLOTTE
* PORTLAND is 4-1 ATS in the last five games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS 

(503) CLEVELAND at (504) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the CLE-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(505) NEW ORLEANS at (506) MEMPHIS
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the NOP-MEM divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

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