The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 46-36-1 (56.1%). Here are today’s results: 

– ORLANDO (+10.5 at MIN)
Team strength system #4, extreme stat system #8, and streak system #3 all Fade MIN and Orlando has been good in head-to-head series recently

– IND-PHI OVER 232
DK Betting Splits System #13, team strength system #5, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 57-79-1 ATS (41.9%) in the next game, including 26-40 ATS (39.4%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2 at MEM)

* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games between Celtics and Heat in Miami
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 213) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 15-5 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-DEN (o/u at 229.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON, LA CLIPPERS, CHARLOTTE, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, UTAH, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, CHARLOTTE, CLEVELAND, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, PHOENIX 

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – SAN ANTONIO ML, HOUSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, UTAH ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-SAS, CLE-MEM, LAL-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-PHI, CHA-SAS
UNDER – TOR-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-MIA, ORL-MIN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Over the total was 99-83 (54.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
3/14: Over the total in LA LAKERS-DENVER
3/14: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-PHOENIX
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAL-DEN (o/u at 229.5), SAC-PHX (o/u at 233) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 22-27 SU and 16-33 ATS skid in its last 49 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/14: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 at ATL) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 15-5 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
3/14: Over the total in LA LAKERS-DENVER
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-DEN (o/u at 229.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 107-74 SU and 108-70-3 ATS (60.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2 at UTA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 241-44 SU but just 133-146-6 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs. ORL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-86 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-166 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 265-206 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-PHI (o/u at 232.5), ORL-MIN (o/u at 208), LAL-DEN (o/u at 229.5)
UNDER – DAL-HOU (o/u at 221.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 270-141 SU but just 176-222-13 ATS (44.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-12.5 at PHI)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 288-226 SU but 228-271-15 ATS (45.7%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs. ORL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 301-256 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-ATL (o/u at 233.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 314-289 SU but 271-313-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-8 at MIA), MEMPHIS (+2 vs. CLE) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 157-172 SU and 148-172-9 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-8 at MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 115-20 SU but 57-75-4 ATS (43.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): HOUSTON (-12 vs. DAL), MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs. ORL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (196-216 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (271-266 ATS, 50.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): UTAH (-2 vs. TOR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 241-290-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-2 at MEM), UTAH (-2 vs TOR)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 57-79-1 ATS (41.9%) in the next game, including 26-40 ATS (39.4%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2 at MEM)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +4.5 (+1.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA +13 (+1.2)
3. MIAMI +8 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -12 (+1.8)
2. CLEVELAND -2 (+1.6)
3. UTAH -2 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +13 (+2.9)
2. ORLANDO +10.5 (+2.4)
3. DALLAS +12 (+2.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHOENIX -3 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-MIN OVER 206.5 (+1.7)
2. LAC-ATL OVER 233.5 (+0.3)
3. SAC-PHX OVER 232.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-PHI UNDER 232 (-1.9)
2. TOR-UTA UNDER 235 (-1.8)
3. CHA-SAS UNDER 232 (-1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +13 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -14 (+2.6)
2(tie). BOSTON -8 (+1.7)
LA CLIPPERS -4.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-MIN OVER 206.5 (+6.6)
2. DAL-HOU OVER 219.5 (+2.5)
3. CHA-SAS OVER 232 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-DEN UNDER 228.5 (-2.6)
2. IND-PHI UNDER 232 (-2.5)
3. TOR-UTA UNDER 235 (-2.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(511) INDIANA at (512) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 14-3 in the last 17 of the IND-PHI head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(513) BOSTON at (514) MIAMI
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games between BOS and MIA in Miami
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
* BOSTON has won five straight SU and ATS versus MIA
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(515) LA CLIPPERS at (516) ATLANTA
* LA CLIPPERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine trips to Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS 

(519) DALLAS at (520) HOUSTON
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of DAL-HOU head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(523) ORLANDO at (524) MINNESOTA
* ORLANDO is 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 trips to Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(527) LA LAKERS at (528) DENVER
* Underdogs are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 of the LAL-DEN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
* Under the total has converted in six straight head-to-head matchups in Denver
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(529) SACRAMENTO at (530) PHOENIX
* SACRAMENTO is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine games versus PHX
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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