The following NBA betting trends are is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 54-45-1 (54.5%). Here are today’s results:

– DALLAS (+9 vs. DET)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #5, streak system #6, and two Makinen ratings projections all favor DAL and extreme stat system #7 fades DET 

– CHA-OKC OVER 223
General scheduling situation, team strength system #5, Makinen bettors ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of Magic-Wizards head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8 at WSH)

* CLEVELAND is on a 14-3 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PHX (o/u at 237.5) 

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-81-1 ATS (41.7%) in the next game, including 27-40 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DALLAS, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, MIAMI, BOSTON, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO 

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the hone or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – SAN ANTONIO ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-SAS, CHA-OKC, DET-DAL, DEN-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-WSH, HOU-MIA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Under the total was 126-101-1 (55.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/21: Under the total in PORTLAND-DENVER
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-POR (o/u at 225.5) 

* Over the total was 60-53 (53.1%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/21: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-OKC (o/u at 225) 

* DENVER is on a 4-16 ATS skid (11-9 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
3/21: Fade DENVER at Portland
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+1.5 at POR) 

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 41-36 SU and 46-30-1 ATS in its last 77 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/21: PHILADELPHIA at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6 at SAS) 

* PHOENIX is 23-18 SU but 14-25-2 ATS in its last 41 3rd Straight Home games
3/21: Fade PHOENIX vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+8 vs CLE)

* PORTLAND is 33-69 SU and 41-61 ATS since ’20-21 when playing at home on OneDayRest
3/21: Fade PORTLAND vs. Denver
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs. DEN) 

* CLEVELAND is on a 14-3 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game
3/21: Under the total in CLEVELAND-PHOENIX
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PHX (o/u at 237.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 247-45 SU but just 135-151-6 ATS (47.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 vs. CHA), BOSTON (-13.5 at UTA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 211-167 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 267-209 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-OKC (o/u at 225), NOP-MIN (o/u at 228), BOS-UTA (o/u at 228)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 125-128 SU but 131-107-5 ATS (55%), including 92-57-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-13.5 vs. NOP), DALLAS (+9 vs. DET), CLEVELAND (-8 at PHX) 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 274-142 SU but just 177-226-13 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-9 at DAL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 292-226 SU but 230-273-15 ATS (45.7%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-6 vs. PHI), OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 vs. CHA), PORTLAND (-1.5 vs. DEN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 306-258 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-MIN (o/u at 228)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 322-293 SU but 277-319-17 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 34-72 SU but 58-48 ATS (54.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ATS): MIAMI (+5.5 vs. HOU) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 119-22 SU but 59-79-3 ATS (42.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 vs. CHA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 76-86 SU but 92-68-3 ATS (57.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 vs. DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 246-297-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+5.5 vs. HOU), HOUSTON (-5.5 vs. MIA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-81-1 ATS (41.7%) in the next game, including 27-40 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 at MIA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +1.5 (+1.3)
2. DALLAS +9 (+0.3)
3. PHOENIX +8.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -6.5 (+1.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -19.5 (+1.6)
3. BOSTON -14 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +9 (+5.6)
2. NEW ORLEANS +13.5 (+3.1)
3. WASHINGTON +8 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -6 (+1.9)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -19.5 (+1.5)
3. PORTLAND -1.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-MIA OVER 214 (+2.5)
2. BOS-UTA OVER 228 (+1.3)
3. DEN-POR OVER 225.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-DAL UNDER 232.5 (-1.4)
2. MEM-LAC UNDER 231.5 (-0.7)
3. PHI-SAS UNDER 237 (-0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +1.5 (+3.2)
2. MIAMI +5.5 (+3.1)
3. UTAH +14 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -19.5 (+2.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -6.5 (+1.7)
3. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-POR OVER 225.5 (+5.1)
2. NOP-MIN OVER 228 (+3.6)
3. CHA-OKC OVER 223 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-DAL UNDER 232.5 (-3.9)
2. HOU-MIA UNDER 214 (-2.3)
3. ORL-WSH UNDER 215 (-0.2) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) ORLANDO at (502) WASHINGTON
* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the ORL-WSH head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(503) PHILADELPHIA at (504) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 8-2-2 ATS in the last 12 of the PHI-SAS head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six of the head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(505) CHARLOTTE at (506) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven games when CHA visits Oklahoma City
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(507) NEW ORLEANS at (508) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the NOP-MIN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(509) HOUSTON at (510) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine games hosting Houston
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(511) DETROIT at (512) DALLAS
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between DET and DAL in Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(517) DENVER at (518) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the DEN-POR head-to-head divisional rivalry in Portland
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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