The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 62-50-2 (55.4%). Here are today’s results: 

– MINNESOTA (-7 vs. PHX)
Scheduling situation, DK Betting Splits system #7, extreme stat system #15, and recent head-to-head trend all favor MIN 

– GSW-NOP UNDER 226.5
Both Makinen ratings projections and recent head-to-head trends favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of Clippers-Nets head-to-head nonconference series at BKN
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+12 vs. LAC)

* DETROIT is on a 19-8 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 228) 

* Under the total is on an 82-34-1 (70.7%) in the last 117 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Gamein 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-MIN (o/u at 224.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – TORONTO ML, MINNESOTA ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-BKN, NYK-MIL
UNDER – CHA-TOR 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 193-131 SU and 188-128 ATS (59.5%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 86-64 SU and 81-66-3 ATS (55.1%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 70-34 SU and 64-38-2 ATS (62.7%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/28: MINNESOTA vs. Phoenix
Systems Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7 vs. PHX) 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 49-27 SU and 43-30-3 ATS (58.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/28: NEW ORLEANS vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+14.5 vs. GSW) 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 35-12 SU and 26-20-1 ATS (56.5%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
3/28: DETROIT vs. Cleveland
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+5 vs CLE)

* Over the total was 119-83 (58.9%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
* Over the total was 60-44 (57.7%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
* Under the total is on an 82-34-1 (70.7%) in the last 117 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/28: MINNESOTA-PHOENIX
Systems Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER for PHX-MIN (o/u at 224.5) 

* Over the total was 63-54 (53.8%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/28: Over the total in DENVER-UTAH
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-DEN (o/u at 240)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 53-49 SU and 42-57-3 ATS skid in the last 102 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/28: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. New York
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+1 vs NYK) 

* NEW YORK is on 28-24 SU and 32-20 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
3/28: NEW YORK at Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1 at MIL) 

* DETROIT is on a 19-8 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
3/28: Under the total in DETROIT-CLEVELAND
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 228)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 111-76 SU and 112-72-3 ATS (60.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (*if they fall into this line range at TOR, +5.5 currently*) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 255-46 SU but just 140-155-6 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-12 at BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 217-169 (56.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 273-211 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-BKN (o/u at 213), GSW-NOP (o/u at 226)
UNDER – UTA-DEN (o/u at 240)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 146-55 SU and 118-81-2 ATS (59.3%) in their L201 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-14.5 at NOP) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 297-227 SU but 235-274-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-5.5 vs. CHA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 286-301 SU and 261-318-8 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-12 at BKN) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 178-149 SU and 183-135-9 ATS (57.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7 vs. PHX) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 157-100 SU and 148-102-7 ATS (59.2%) since ‘21.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-5.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +1 (+1.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -17.5 (+1.6)
2. MINNESOTA -7 (+1.1)
3. LA CLIPPERS -12 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +15 (+4.6)
2. BROOKLYN +12 (+3.5)
3. MILWAUKEE +1 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -5 (+1.2)
2. DENVER -17.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-MIL OVER 218 (+3.7)
2. PHX-MIN OVER 225 (+1.4)
3. CLE-DET OVER 228 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-NOP UNDER 226.5 (-1.3)
2. LAC-BKN UNDER 212.5 (-1.1)
3. UTA-DEN UNDER 240.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+1.3)
2. MILWAUKEE +1 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -17.5 (+1.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -12 (+0.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE -15 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CLE-DET OVER 228 (+2.8)
NYK-MIL OVER 218 (+2.8)
3. CHA-TOR OVER 215.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-DEN UNDER 240.5 (-3.0)
2. GSW-NOP UNDER 226.5 (-0.7)
3. LAC-BKN UNDER 212.5 (-0.6) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) CLEVELAND at (530) DETROIT
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the CLE-DET head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(533) LA CLIPPERS at (534) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the LAC-BKN head-to-head non-conference series at BKN
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS 

(535) PHOENIX at (536) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven versus Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA 

(537) GOLDEN STATE at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the GSW-NOP head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(541) UTAH at (542) DENVER
* DENVER has covered five straight ATS in head-to-head games versus UTA
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

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