The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 62-41 SU and 67-35-1 ATS (65.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-11.5 at CHI)

NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 165-137 SU and 168-125-9 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+12.5 vs. NYK), TORONTO (+8 at MIA)

INDIANA is 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in its last 12 4th Straight Home games
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-5.5 vs. DET)

LA LAKERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with OKC
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+3 vs. OKC) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to you, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MINNESOTA ML, BROOKLYN ML, INDIANA ML, MIAMI ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS ML, INDIANA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while the majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-ATL, TOR-MIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-MIN, ORL-BKN
UNDER – TOR-MIA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 182-123 SU and 176-121 ATS (59.3%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
11/29: BOSTON at Chicago
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-11.5 at CHI) 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 62-41 SU and 67-35-1 ATS (65.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
11/29: BOSTON at Chicago
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-11.5 at CHI) 

* OVER the total was 107-76 (58.5%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/29: Over the total in CHICAGO-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-CHI (o/u at 243.5)

* UNDER the total was 105-76-1 (58%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/29: Under the total in MINNESOTA-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-MIN (o/u at 213.5) 

* UNDER the total was on a 38-14 (73.1%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/29: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-LAL (o/u at 230.5)

11/29: Under the total in CLEVELAND-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ATL (o/u at 244) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 32-75 SU and 41-63-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/29: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. New York
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+12.5 vs. NYK) 

* INDIANA is 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in its last 12 4th Straight Home games
11/29: INDIANA vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-5.5 vs. DET) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 15-26 SU and 14-26-1 ATS skid entering the 2024-25 season playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/29: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+3 vs. OKC)

* MIAMI is on a 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
11/29: Fade MIAMI vs. Toronto
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8 vs. TOR)

* PORTLAND is 25-61 SU and 31-55 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/29: Fade PORTLAND vs. Sacramento
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+7 vs. SAC)

* TORONTO is 20-11 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/29: Over the total in TORONTO-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-MIA (o/u at 219) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 91-77 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-141 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-171 (57.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-CHA (o/u at 221), BOS-CHI (o/u at 243.5)
UNDER – NOP-MEM (o/u at 232)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 135-80 SU but 96-115-4 ATS (45.5%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 82-102 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-6 at ATL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 257-203 SU but 198-250-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6 vs. CLE)

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 260-246 SU and 228-265-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-11.5 at CHI), TORONTO (+8 at MIA), ATLANTA (+6 vs. CLE) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 133-157 SU and 132-151-7 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-11.5 at CHI), TORONTO (+8 at MIA)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 165-137 SU and 168-125-9 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+12.5 vs. NYK), TORONTO (+8 at MIA)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 124-93 SU and 121-92-4 ATS (56.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at LAL)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 161-59 SU and 122-95-3 ATS (56.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6 at ATL) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-59 SU but 48-41 ATS (53.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+11 at MEM)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 97-17 SU but 51-61-3 ATS (45.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-11 vs. NOP)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 57-16 SU and 42-29-2 ATS (59.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-11.5 at CHI), ORLANDO (-7.5 at BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (171-190 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (228-221 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+11 at MEM), MINNESOTA (-6 vs. LAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +7 (+2.7)
2. LA LAKERS +3 (+2.6)
3. NEW ORLEANS +12 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -8 (+1.9)
2. BOSTON -11.5 (+1.3)
3. NEW YORK -12.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +6 (+3.9)
2. DETROIT +5.5 (+2.4)
3. LA LAKERS +3 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -11.5 (+3.6)
2. NEW YORK -12.5 (+1.7)
3. SACRAMENTO -7 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-CHA OVER 221 (+3.1)
2. OKC-LAL OVER 230.5 (+0.7)
3. TOR-MIA OVER 219 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-MEM UNDER 232 (-2.2)
2. BOS-CHI UNDER 243.5 (-2.1)
3. ORL-BKN UNDER 208.5 (-0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). LA LAKERS +3 (+1.8)
PORTLAND +7 (+1.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +12 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -11.5 (+3.7)
2. MIAMI -8 (+1.2)
3. CLEVELAND -6 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-IND OVER 229 (+5.8)
2. NYK-CHA OVER 221 (+3.8)
3. TOR-MIA OVER 219 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-MEM UNDER 232 (-3.4)
2. SAC-POR UNDER 225.5 (-1.7)
3. ORL-BKN UNDER 208.5 (-1.6) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) NEW YORK at (502) CHARLOTTE
* NEW YORK has won four straight ATS when visiting Charlotte
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(505) NEW ORLEANS at (506) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 5-1 ATS in the last six of the rivalry with NOP at HOME
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(509) ORLANDO at (510) BROOKLYN
* Favorites have covered seven straight ATS in the ORL-BKN series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(511) DETROIT at (512) INDIANA
* INDIANA has covered five straight ATS versus divisional rival Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS 

(517) OKLAHOMA CITY at (518) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with OKC
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR