Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, October 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 games between CHI and MIL at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235)
* Underdogs have covered seven of the last eight games between CHA and ATL
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at ATL)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 228)
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in the previous game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 148-54 SU and 114-86-2 ATS (57%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs IND)
Golden State is on an extended slide of 33-53 SU and 31-55 ATS when playing on the road on OneDayRest
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at UTA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GOLDEN STATE, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, HOUSTON, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE, NEW ORLEANS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches: FADE HOME TEAMS ML, SLIGHT PLAY ROAD TEAMS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, MEMPHIS, MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): MEMPHIS, PHOENIX
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-ORL, DET-CLE, CHA-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-TOR, BKN-ORL, NOP-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 33-53 SU and 31-55 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at UTA)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 30-31 SU and 19-41-1 ATS skid entering 2024-25 when playing on standard One Day Rest
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-9.5 vs CHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 35-21 SU and 38-18 ATS in its last 56 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-5 at TOR)
* PORTLAND is 23-58 SU and 28-53 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+5.5 vs. NOP)
* NEW YORK is 20-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on Two Days Rest
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in IND-NYK (o/u at 227)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 129-44 SU and 107-65-1 ATS (62.2%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-5.5 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 61-21 SU and 54-27-1 ATS (66.7%).
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-5 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 224-154 (59.3%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BKN-ORL (o/u at 215), PLAY UNDER in DET-CLE (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 196-117 SU, but 139-169-5 ATS (45.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 27-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. DET), GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at UTA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 251-195 SU but 192-242-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-62 ATS.
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. DET), ORLANDO (-11.5 vs. BKN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 264-213 (55.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-ATL (o/u at 227), GSW-UTA (o/u at 233)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 238-233 SU and 211-247-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at UTA)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 126-150 SU and 124-145-7 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at UTA)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 148-54 SU and 114-86-2 ATS (57%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs IND)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). TORONTO +5 (+2.1)
MEMPHIS +3 (+2.1)
3. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -11 (+0.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE -3.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+4.1)
2. TORONTO +5 (+3.2)
3. MEMPHIS +3 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -11 (+2.3)
2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE -3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-UTA OVER 233 (+3.1)
2. MEM-HOU OVER 224.5 (+2.0)
3. CHA-ATL OVER 226.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-MIL UNDER 235 (-9.8)
2. BKN-ORL UNDER 215 (-3.2)
3. DET-CLE UNDER 228 (-2.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3 (+2.2)
2. TORONTO +5 (+0.8)
3. INDIANA +4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -9.5 (+1.6)
2. GOLDEN STATE -3.5 (+1.1)
3. ATLANTA -5.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-TOR OVER 219.5 (+2.6)
2. PHX-LAL OVER 226 (+1.7)
3. GSW-UTA OVER 233 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-MIL UNDER 235 (-10.3)
2. DET-CLE UNDER 228 (-5.9)
3. BKN-ORL UNDER 215 (-4.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) PHILADELPHIA at (534) TORONTO
* PHILADELPHIA has covered the last five ATS of the series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-5 at TOR)
(535) BROOKLYN at (536) ORLANDO
* Favorites have covered the last six ATS meetings between BKN and ORL
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-11.5 vs BKN)
(537) INDIANA at (538) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the IND-NYK series played at New York
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)
(539) DETROIT at (540) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 7-1 in the DET-CLE rivalry series in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228.5)
(541) CHARLOTTE at (542) ATLANTA
* Underdogs have covered seven of the last eight games between CHA and ATL
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at ATL)
* Over the total is 5-0-1 in the last six of the series at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)
(545) CHICAGO at (546) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 games between CHI and MIL at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235)
(547) GOLDEN STATE at (548) UTAH
* GOLDEN STATE is 6-2 ATS in road trips to Utah since 2019
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at UTA)
(549) PHOENIX at (550) LA LAKERS
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the PHX-LAL series in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-1.5 vs PHX)
(551) NEW ORLEANS at (552) PORTLAND
* Under the total has hit in the last six of the NOP-POR series in Portland
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 218.5)
