The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are on an extended 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS run in the Thunder-Pacers head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND) 

Game Threes have been a momentum squelcher – The team that wins Game Two in the last 10 NBA Finals series has gone just 4-8 SU and ATS (33.3%) in Game Three. All eight of the losses were by double-digit margins as well.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND) 

* Since 2018, teams seeded 4th or worse in the NBA Finals are 5-17 SU and 8-12-2 ATS (40%). At home, they are just 1-5 SU and ATS (16.7%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 vs OKC) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-34 SU and 7-33-1 ATS (17.5%). 

Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 45-18 SU and 42-16-5 ATS (72.4%) over the last nine years.

·  In its 18 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less four times, and 105 or more 14 times. OKC has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 15 times.

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General Trends

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 30-23 SU and 26-25-2 ATS (51%) since 2014. This includes an improved 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) mark in the last 24 games.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. OKC) 

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 18-7 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) in the last 25 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND) 

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 63 games, outright winners have gone 57-3-3 ATS (95%) in the NBA Finals. 

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 70 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 29 Overs, 39 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 25-12-1 (67.6%) run in the last 38 games, and 9-1 (90%) in the last 10.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 228)

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Trends by Line Range

Home underdogs’ bark is less than their bite – Home underdogs in the NBA Finals have proven to be overmatched recently, going just 2-7 SU and ATS (22.2%) in their last nine opportunities. However, the Mavericks (+1) did salvage a series-saving win in Game Four last year, 122-84.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. OKC)

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Last Game Trend

Other double-digit losses have carried over – Teams that suffered double-digit defeats in the 11–29-point range have gone just 10-20 SU and 9-18-3 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. OKC)

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Trends by Game Number

Game Threes have been a momentum squelcher – The team that wins Game Two in the last 10 NBA Finals series has gone just 4-8 SU and ATS (33.3%) in Game Three. All eight of the losses were by double-digit margins as well. Boston did win last year in Dallas to go up 3-0 however.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND)

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 16-10 SU but 11-12-3 ATS (47.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 5-17 SU and 8-12-2 ATS (40%). When coming off wins, they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS (16.7%). At home, they are just 1-5 SU and ATS (16.7%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. OKC) 

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in Games Three and later of their respective series, going 10-8 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%), although Dallas was 1-2 SU and ATS last June.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. OKC)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy UNDER teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 16-4 Under (80%). They are averaging 100.6 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 228)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 49-25 SU and 45-26-3 ATS (63.4%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. OKC) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-19 SU and 35-18-2 ATS in its last 55 games playing on 2 Days Rest
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND) 

* Under the total was 91-69-1 (56.9%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 135-85-1 (61.4%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 93-61-1 (60.4%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 228)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-IND OVER 228 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-IND OVER 228 (+1.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

(505) OKLAHOMA CITY at (506) INDIANA
* Favorites are on an extended 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS run in the Thunder-Pacers head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND)

* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the OKC-IND head-to-head series at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-IND (o/u at 228.5)

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