The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 12, 2025, and May 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 93-75-3 (55.4%). Here are Monday and Tuesday’s results: 

– GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs. MIN)
Multiple playoff trends/systems and two Makinen ratings projections favor GSW 

– CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. IND)
Multiple playoff trends/systems, team strength system #1, extreme stat system #9, and three Makinen ratings projections all favor CLE

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Monday and Tuesday’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that lost big in Game Four, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 15-9 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) in their last 24 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. IND)

Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 20-7 SU and ATS (74.1%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 27-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs. MIN), DENVER (+10 at OKC) 

* Underdogs are 11-9 SU and 16-4 ATS in last 20 of Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+10 at OKC) 

* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 295-315 SU and 272-330-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Monday, May 12. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, INDIANA ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-NYK, MIN-GSW 

Scoring Trends

–   It was in the 2016-17 season that scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 127-30 SU and 121-35-1 ATS (77.6%).

–  Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 27-122 SU and 34-114-1 ATS (23%) over the last eight seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

–  Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 16-10 SU but just 7-19 ATS (26.9%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 69-52-1 ATS (57%) in that span.
System Matches (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. DEN) 

–  Big road favorites win and cover – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second round road favorites of 5 points or more are 14-2 SU and 9-6-1 ATS (60%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW) 

–  The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 39-22-1 (63.9%), including 16-4 when 227.5 or higher!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

Last Game Trends

–  Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 15-27 SU and 17-25 ATS (40.5%) in the follow-up contests in their last 42 playoff tries. However, these teams are 10-5 ATS in their last 15.
System Match (CONSIDER FADING): DENVER (+10 at OKC) 

– Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 28-15 ATS (65.1%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (+6.5 vs. BOS), GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs. MIN), CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. IND) 

–  Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 20-7 SU and ATS (74.1%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 27-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs. MIN), DENVER (+10 at OKC) 

–  There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 38-20-1 Under (65.5%) the total in the last 59.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-GSW (o/u at 199.5), DEN-OKC (o/u at 221) 

–  Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 6-11 SU and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in the follow-up contest. The last 11 of those games have also gone Under the total (100%).
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+7.5 at CLE), also PLAY UNDER in IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

–  Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 23-29-1 ATS (44.2%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): NEW YORK (+6.5 vs BOS), DENVER (+10 at OKC), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs DEN)

Trends by Game Number

–  Oddsmakers pave the road for Game Four profits – An interesting trend that has developed over the last eight playoff seasons finds that second round Game Four favorites are on a surge of 29-12 SU and 23-17-1 ATS (57.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW) 

–  Game Four winners have most often become Game Four winners as well, as they are 15-7 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW) 

–  Teams up in the series are just 16-23 SU and 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) in their last 39 Game Four tries, including 1-5 ATS in their last six.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+6.5 vs. BOS), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW) 

–   Expect Game Fives to be tight – Favorites are 31-12 SU but just 20-23 ATS (46.5%) since 2013. This is a significant win/no cover percentage of games. In these contests with lines of 5.5 points or more, they are just 11-17 ATS (39.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML 

–  Teams that lost big in Game Four, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 15-9 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) in their last 24 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. IND)

Trends by Seed Number

–  After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 53-43 SU and 45-50-1 ATS (47.4%) in their last 96 second round playoff games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs DEN) 

–  #1 seeds are on a 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS (60%) at home in the last three seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. DEN) 

–  #1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last four postseasons, going 7-12 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in the last 19 tries when coming off a same series win.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. DEN) 

–  #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 39-21-2 (65%) in the last 62.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208) 

–  Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 15-38 SU and 21-30-1 ATS (41.2%) as such since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+7.5 at CLE), DENVER (+10 at OKC) 

–  Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 13-24 SU and 15-22 ATS (40.5%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+10 at OKC) 

–  First round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded fifth or lower have gone 4-32 SU and 14-22 ATS (38.9%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (*if they become 6-point underdogs or more, +5.5 currently) 

–  Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 12-23 SU and ATS (34.3%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

–  Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (11-9 ATS in the last 20) as compared to at home (7-15 ATS in the last 22). Hosts were 0-4 ATS in this spot in 2024.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANA (+7.5 at CLE) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* Under the total is on a 96-52-1 (64.9%) in the last 149 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208), MIN-GSW (o/u at 199.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 150-58 SU and 122-85-1 ATS (58.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs IND)
*watch for OKLAHOMA CITY vs DEN, -10 currently 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 113-92 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 291-226 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 221) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 102-64 SU and 98-65-3 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 315-270 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208), IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5), DEN-OKC (o/u at 221) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 295-315 SU and 272-330-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 339-309 SU but 292-336-18 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 169-185 SU and 159-185-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 at NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +6.5 (+4.5)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+2.1) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+2.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+2.1) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +6.5 (+1.8)
2. DENVER +10 (+0.2) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+0.7)
2. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+0.4) 

Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-OKC OVER 221 (+1.7)
2. IND-CLE OVER 229.5 (+0.1) 

Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-NYK UNDER 208 (-0.3)
2. MIN-GSW UNDER 199.5 (-0.1) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +6.5 (+3.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+1.8) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+2.3)
2. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+2.0) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-OKC OVER 221 (+5.5)
2. IND-CLE OVER 229.5 (+1.5)
3. MIN-GSW OVER 199.5 (+1.4) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match:
1. BOS-NYK UNDER 208 (-0.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Monday, May 12, 2025

(575) BOSTON at (576) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine of the BOS-NYK head-to-head divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON 

(577) MINNESOTA at (578) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are 13-3 SU and 10-4-2 ATS in the last 16 of the MIN-GSW series at Golden State
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

(579) INDIANA at (580) CLEVELAND
* Rpad teams are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 of the Pacers-Cavs divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS 

(581) DENVER at (582) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 11-9 SU and 16-4 ATS in the last 20 of the Nuggets-Thunder divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER

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