The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 94-77-4 (55%). Here are today’s results:

– BOS-NYK UNDER 211.5
Three playoff trends/systems, extreme stat system #11, and both Makinen ratings projections favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams looking to close out a series in Game Six have struggled, going just 9-14 SU and 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in their last 23 opportunities, including 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) as chalk.

System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs. BOS)

* In the second round, when one team is coming off a game scoring 127-points or more, the follow-up game has gone Under the total in 12-straight (100%)!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 211.5) 

* NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 169-186 SU and 159-186-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 1:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-NYK

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season that scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 134-31 SU and 127-37-1 ATS (77.4%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 27-123 SU and 34-115-1 ATS (22.8%) over the L8 seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

– Second round home favorites of 8 points or less are 70-52-1 ATS (57.4%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs BOS)

Last Game Trends

– Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 31-17 ATS (64.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs. BOS)

– Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 7-11 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) in the follow-up contest. The last 12 of those games have also gone Under the total (100%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 211.5)

Trends by Game Number

– Game Sixes have swung towards underdogs, 16-13 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK) 

– Ten of the last 15 (66.7%) Game Sixes that have been played the last four playoff seasons have gone Under the total
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 211.5)

Trends by Seed Number

-#2 seeds have been very competitive in the underdog role in the second round, going 23-20 SU and 29-14 ATS (67.4%) in that role since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK) 

-#3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 39-23-2 (62.9%) in the last 64.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 211.5)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

– Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (12-10 ATS in the last 22) as compared to at home (8-15 ATS in the last 23).
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs. BOS) 

–  Teams looking to close out a series in Game Six have struggled, going just 9-14 SU and 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in their last 23 opportunities, including 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) as chalk.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs. BOS)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 317-271 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 211.5) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 339-310 SU but 292-337-18 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 169-186 SU and 159-186-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have performed well in the next contest as well, going 162-104 SU and 154-105-7 ATS (59.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+2.5 at NYK) 

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 200-76 SU and 146-127-3 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine MLB betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON +2.5 (+1.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK -2.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOS-NYK UNDER 211.5 (-2.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON +2.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOS-NYK UNDER 211.5 (-2.5)

Here is a head-to-head series NBA betting trend in play for today’s game:

Friday, May 16, 2025(509) BOSTON at (510) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 3-1 in the last four of the BOS-NYK head-to-head divisional rivalry at New York
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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