The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on May 31, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 98-80-4 (55.1%). Here is today’s result: 

– INDIANA (-4 vs. NYK)
Multiple playoff trends/systems and head-to-head trend favor IND + DK Betting Splits system #10 fades NYK

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game Six has trended Over the total – Eight of the last 13 conference finals Game Sixes have gone Over the total (61.5%).
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-IND (o/u at 218.5)

* Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-23 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+4 at IND)

* Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 41 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 12 seasons, and outright winners are 38-2-1 ATS.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for ECF Game Six as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Friday, May 30. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and a ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-IND 

Scoring Trends

* 94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-54 SU and 11-53 ATS (17.2%) since 2013. 

* Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 58-8 SU and 57-7-2 ATS (89.1%) over the last 12 seasons.

Trends by Line Range

* High totals have meant Unders – Of the 57 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 34 of them have gone Under the total (59.6%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND (o/u at 218.5)

Last Game Trends

* Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 29-24 SU and 33-19-1 ATS (63.5%) in their 53 follow up games.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-4 vs. NYK)

Trends by Game Number

* Game Sixes have trended Over the total – Eight of the last 13 conference finals’ game 6’s have gone Over the total (61.5%).
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-IND (o/u at 218.5) 

* Teams have capitalized on Game Six closeout opportunities – Four of the L6 conference finals teams attempting to close out a series have won SU while going 5-1 ATS (83.3%). Two of the wins were outright upsets.
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-4 vs. NYK)

Trends by Seed Number

* #3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 19-15 SU and 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%) in their last 34 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-4 vs. NYK)

* Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-23 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in the follow-up contest.

* Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 12-28 SU and 15-23-2 ATS (39.5%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 12-18 ATS (40%) in their last 30 road conference finals games.
Systems Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+4 at IND)

Trend by teams closing out series or facing elimination

* Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 41 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 12 seasons and outright winners are 38-2-1 ATS.

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 156-61 SU and 128-88-1 ATS (59.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (*if they fall into this line range, -4 currently) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME 6 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +4 (+1.1) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +4 (+0.2) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-IND OVER 218.5 (+2.2) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +4 (+1.1) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-IND OVER 218.5 (+2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for ECF Game Six:

Saturday, May 31, 2025

(555) NEW YORK at (556) INDIANA
* Home teams are on an 8-1 SU and ATS run in playoff series Games Four-Five-Six-Seven between NYK and IND
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-4 vs. NYK)

* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Knicks-Pacers head-to-head series at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-IND (o/u at 218.5)

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