The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 90-74-3 (54.9%). Here are today’s results: 

– CLEVELAND (-5.5 at IND)
DK Betting Splits system #2, multiple playoff trends/systems, and recent head-to-head trend all favor CLE

– OKC-DEN UNDER 232
DK Betting Splits system #12, multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, extreme stat system #11, and both Makinen ratings projections all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) in the follow-up contest. The last 10 of those games have also gone Under the total (100%).
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232) 

* In the last 17 Game Threes featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 13 have gone Under the total (76.5%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5) 

* Road teams are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of Cavs-Pacers head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at IND) 

* Under the total was 64-29 (68.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 232)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% dropoff compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and a ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-DEN

Scoring Trends

–  It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 123-30 SU and 117-35-1 ATS (77%).

–  Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 25-119 SU and 32-111-1 ATS (22.4%) over the last eight seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

–  Big road favorites win and cover – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second round road favorites of five points or more are 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS (77.8%). Boston was 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in this role versus Cleveland a year ago.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN) 

–  The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 36-21-1 (63.2%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5), OKC-DEN (o/u at 232)

Last Game Trends

–  Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 12-27 SU and 15-24 ATS (38.5%) in the follow-up contests in their last 39 playoff tries. However, these teams were 8-4 ATS in last year’s upset-riddled second round.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at IND) 

–  Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 25-15 ATS (62.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC)

–  Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with an 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 25-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at IND) 

–  There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 35-20-1 Under (63.6%) the total in the last 56.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5) 

– Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) in the follow-up contest. The last 10 of those games have also gone Under the total (100%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)

Trends by Game Number

– Home teams are 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the last 12 Game Threes, turning around a trend of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. CLE), DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC) 

– Change of venue has changed scoring trend recently – with more Game Twos going Over than not, the scoring pace slows for Game Threes, as they are 19-9 Under (67.9%) in the last 28.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5), OKC-DEN (o/u at 232)

–  In the last 17 Game Threes featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 13 have gone Under the total (76.5%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5)

Trends by Seed Number

–  After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 51-41 SU and 44-47-1 ATS (48.4%) in their last 92 second round playoff games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-5.5 at IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN) 

–  #1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last four postseasons, going 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) in the last 17 tries when coming off a same series win.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN) 

–  Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 13-36 SU and 18-29-1 ATS (38.3%) as such since 2015.
System Match (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. CLE), DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC) 

–  Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 11-24 SU and 13-22 ATS (37.1%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 64-59 SU and 65-55-3 ATS (54.2%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 48-23 SU and 44-24-3 ATS (64.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+5.5 vs. CLE)

* Under the total was 89-68-1 (56.7%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 128-83-1 (60.7%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 87-60-1 (59.2%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5)

* Under the total was 64-29 (68.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total is on a 93-51-1 (64.6%) in the last 145 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 232)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 252-135 SU but 179-200-8 ATS (47.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-37-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 313-269 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-IND (o/u at 230.5), OKC-DEN (o/u at 232)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +5.5 (+3.9)
2. DENVER +5.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-IND OVER 230.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-DEN UNDER 232 (-1.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +5.5 (+4.2)
2. DENVER +5.5 (+1.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-IND OVER 230.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-DEN UNDER 232 (-2.0) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Friday, May 9, 2025

(563) CLEVELAND at (564) INDIANA
* Road teams are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the IND-CLE head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS 

(565) OKLAHOMA CITY at (566) DENVER
* Underdogs are 10-8 SU and 14-4 ATS in the last 18 of the DEN-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER

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