Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* DETROIT is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games versus Miami
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT (+4.5 vs. MIA)
* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 70-25 SU and 61-33-1 ATS (64.9%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at CHA)
* LA CLIPPERS are 17-16 SU but 6-27 ATS in their last 33 games at home playing on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-8 vs. UTA)
* Under the total was 39-18 (68.4%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all six games today
*NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 250-132 SU but just 163-207-12 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-1.5 vs. DEN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, SACRAMENTO, LA CLIPPERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – LA CLIPPERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-BKN, UTA-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-LAC
UNDER – DEN-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-CHA, MIA-DET
UNDER – CLE-BKN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 71-41 SU and 69-41-2 ATS (62.7%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. CHI), SACRAMENTO (-1.5 vs. DEN)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 33-11 SU and 30-12-2 ATS (71.4%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, TORONTO, BROOKLYN, SACRAMENTO, LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total was 78-45 (63.4%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHA, CHI-TOR, CLE-BKN, DEN-SAC, UTA-LAC
* Under the total was 72-35 (67.3%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all six games today
* Under the total was 39-18 (68.4%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all six games today
* LA CLIPPERS are 17-16 SU but 6-27 ATS in their last 33 games at home playing on 2 Days Rest
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-8 vs. UTA)
* LA CLIPPERS are 29-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-LAC (o/u at 223)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 99-64 SU and 98-62-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 70-25 SU and 61-33-1 ATS (64.9%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 168-143 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 236-179 (56.9%).
System Match (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-BKN (o/u at 217)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 250-132 SU but just 163-207-12 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-1.5 vs. DEN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 249-264 SU and 227-280-6 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+8 at LAC)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 272-253 SU and 234-278-11 ATS (45.7%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): UTAH (+8 at LAC), BROOKLYN (+10 vs. CLE)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 138-161 SU and 134-158-7 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+8 at LAC)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 128-94 SU and 125-93-4 ATS (57.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-1.5 at TOR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +2 (+1.7)
2. DENVER +1.5 (+1.3)
3. BROOKLYN +10 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+1.5)
2. MIAMI -4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +2 (+2.7)
2. UTAH +8.5 (+2.0)
3. DENVER +1.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -10 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-BKN OVER 217 (+5.1)
2. CHI-TOR OVER 240.5 (+0.5)
3. UTA-LAC OVER 223 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-CHA UNDER 217 (-4.5)
2. MIA-DET UNDER 219 (-0.5)
3. DEN-SAC UNDER 237.5 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +2 (+2.3)
2. BROOKLYN +10 (+1.9)
3. DENVER +1.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+2.3)
2. MIAMI -4.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-BKN OVER 217 (+6.8)
2. DEN-SAC OVER 237.5 (+3.6)
3. CHI-TOR OVER 240.5 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-CHA UNDER 217 (-6.4)
2. MIA-DET UNDER 219 (-1.7)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) MIAMI at (530) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games versus Miami
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(531) CHICAGO at (532) TORONTO
* FAVORITES are 8-1 ATS in the last nine games of the CHI-TOR series in Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(535) DENVER at (536) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games hosting Denver
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
* Over the total is 6-2 ATS in last eight of the DEN-SAC series at Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(537) UTAH at (538) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the series with Utah in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
