The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* LA LAKERS are on a 14-4 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIN (o/u at 219)

* Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 203-251-2 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-113 SU and 59-76-4 ATS (43.7%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+10 at ATL) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 32-17 SU and 32-16-1 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-8 vs. LAL) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven games between BKN and CHI in Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-CHI (o/u at 233.5) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MINNESOTA 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, ATLANTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS ML, BROOKLYN ML 

These last two NBA betting trend systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-BOS, LAL-MIN, BKN-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-ATL 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rdStraightHome game were 69-36 SU and 61-40-4 ATS (60.4%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
12/2: MINNESOTA vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-8 vs. LAL) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 32-17 SU and 32-16-1 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
12/2: MINNESOTA vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-8 vs. LAL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 32-10 SU and 24-17-1 ATS (58.5%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
12/2: CHICAGO vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs. BKN) 

* Over the total was 83-70 (54.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
12/2: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-ATL (o/u at 229) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 15-27 SU and 14-27-1 ATS skid in the last 42 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
12/2: FADE LA LAKERS at Minnesota
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+8 at MIN)

* ATLANTA is 44-22 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
12/2: Over the total in ATLANTA-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-ATL (o/u at 229) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 14-4 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
12/2: Over the total in LA LAKERS-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIN (o/u at 219)

* NEW ORLEANS is on a 14-2 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
12/2: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-ATL (o/u at 229) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 186-35 SU but just 101-117-3 ATS (46.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-10 vs. NOP) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-77 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-142 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 233-172 (57.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-BOS (o/u at 220), NOP-ATL (o/u at 229)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 135-81 SU but 96-116-4 ATS (45.3%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 82-103 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs. BKN)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 116-118 SU but 121-98-5 ATS (55.3%), including 87-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs. BKN)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 248-131 SU but just 161-206-12 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-10 vs. NOP), MINNESOTA (-8 vs. LAL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 263-249 SU and 229-270-11 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs. BKN) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 161-60 SU and 122-96-3 ATS (56%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs. BKN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.2% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (172-190 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (229-223 ATS, 50.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+10 at ATL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 203-251-2 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-113 SU and 59-76-4 ATS (43.7%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+10 at ATL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+1.3)
2. LA LAKERS +8 (+0.7)
3. MIAMI +9.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ATLANTA -10 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+3.2)
2. NEW ORLEANS +10 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -9.5 (+0.5)
2. MINNESOTA -8 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-BOS OVER 220 (+1.6)
2. LAL-MIN OVER 219 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
NOP-ATL UNDER 229.5 (-2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+1.4)
2. NEW ORLEANS +10 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -9.5 (+2.1)
2. MINNESOTA -8 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-BOS OVER 220 (+4.3)
2. BKN-CHI OVER 233.5 (+1.8)
3. LAL-MIN OVER 219 (+1.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
NOP-ATL UNDER 229.5 (-3.6) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(553) NEW ORLEANS at (554) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 7-2 in the NOP-ATL series in Atlanta in the last 10 seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(555) LA LAKERS at (556) MINNESOTA
* LA LAKERS have covered four of the last five ATS in the series with Minnesota
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS 

(557) BROOKLYN at (558) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven games between BKN and CHI in Chicago
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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