The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 15-11. Here are today’s results:

– CHARLOTTE (+4 at BKN)
Road teams have been good in the head-to-head series and team strength system #2 

– MILWAUKEE (+6.5 vs. GSW)
Milwaukee fits several scheduling situations and home teams have been good in head-to-head series lately

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Road teams are 18-4 ATS in the last 22 of the NOP-OKC series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+16 at OKC)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 38-25 SU and 38-22-3 ATS (63.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11.5 vs. SAS) 

* ATLANTA is 47-27 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-ORL (o/u at 222)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, SAN ANTONIO, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO ML

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-LAL
UNDER – SAS-WSH, SAC-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-BKN, BOS-MIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 81-41 SU and 72-45-5 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/10: BROOKLYN vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-4 vs. CHA) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 43-45 SU and 49-37-2 ATS (57%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over last two seasons.
2/10: MILWAUKEE vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+6.5 vs. GSW) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 37-21 SU and 38-19-1 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/10: BROOKLYN vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-4 vs. CHA) 

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 23-22 SU and 27-18 ATS (60%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/10: MILWAUKEE vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+6.5 vs. GSW)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 38-25 SU and 38-22-3 ATS (63.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/10: WASHINGTON vs. San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11.5 vs. SAS) 

* Under the total was 116-94-1 (55.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/10: Under the total in WASHINGTON-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-WSH (o/u at 237) 

* Over the total was 92-66 (58.2%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.
2/10: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-MIL (o/u at 232) 

* Over the total was 18-9 (66.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/10: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-MIL (o/u at 232) 

* ATLANTA is on 10-33 SU and 10-32-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
2/10: Fade ATLANTA at Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+5.5 at ORL) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 42-57 SU and 40-59 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
2/10: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Milwaukee
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 at MIL)

* ATLANTA is 47-27 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
2/10: Over the total in ATLANTA-ORLANDO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-ORL (o/u at 222)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-70 SU and 106-66-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+4 at BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 226-43 SU but just 126-138-5 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-81 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 193-161 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 256-197 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-WSH (o/u at 237), NOP-OKC (o/u at 235), UTA-LAL (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 121-122 SU but 127-101-5 ATS (55.7%), including 90-53-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at OKC) 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 260-138 SU but just 170-216-12 ATS (44%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs. ATL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the host
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 281-221 SU but 221-267-14 ATS (45.3%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 39-66 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (-4 vs. CHA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-281 SU and 243-300-7 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1 vs. SAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 297-277 SU but 257-300-15 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+6.5 vs. GSW)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 144-98 SU and 138-97-7 ATS (58.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-4 vs. CHA) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 32-68 SU but 54-46 ATS (54%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 105-20 SU but 54-69-3 ATS (43.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs. NOP), LA LAKERS (-13 vs. UTA)
*Also monitor DENVER vs. POR (-9.5 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 228-276-3 ATS (45.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-129 SU and 69-85-5 ATS (44.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at OKC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+4.7)
2. CHARLOTTE +4 (+1.1)
3. NEW ORLEANS +16 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -1 (+0.7)
2(tie). SAN ANTONIO -11.5 (+0.3)
ORLANDO -5.5 (+0.3)
DENVER -9.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+2.7)
2. MINNESOTA +9.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -16 (+3.1)
2. DALLAS -1 (+2.6)
3. SAN ANTONIO -11.5 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-DEN OVER 230.5 (+3.1)
2. MIN-CLE OVER 229.5 (+1.9)
3. GSW-MIL OVER 231.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-ORL UNDER 222 (-2.2)
2. NOP-OKC UNDER 236 (-1.6)
3. SAS-WSH UNDER 237 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+6.2)
2. NEW ORLEANS +16 (+2.0)
3. CHARLOTTE +4 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -9.5 (+3.6)
2. LA LAKERS -12.5 (+2.2)
3. ORLANDO -5.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-CLE OVER 229.5 (+2.5)
2. GSW-MIL OVER 231.5 (+1.2)
3. SAC-DAL OVER 237.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-ORL UNDER 222 (-6.5)
2. NOP-OKC UNDER 236 (-1.7)
3. POR-DEN UNDER 230.5 (-0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(543) MINNESOTA at (544) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the MIN-CLE series in Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(545) SAN ANTONIO at (546) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 14-4 in last 18 of the SAS-WSH non-conference series (including eight straight Overs when at Washington)
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(549) CHARLOTTE at (550) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the CHA-BKN series
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS 

(551) BOSTON at (552) MIAMI
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 matchups between BOS and MIA in Miami
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(553) NEW ORLEANS at (554) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams are 18-4 ATS in the last 22 of the NOP-OKC series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS 

(555) GOLDEN STATE at (556) MILWAUKEE
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the GSW-MIL non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(557) SACRAMENTO at (558) DALLAS
* Under the total is 13-3 in the last 16 matchups between SAC and DAL
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(571) UTAH at (572) LA LAKERS
* Underdogs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the UTA-LAL series
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

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