The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 57-47-1 (54.8%). Here are today’s results:

– CHI-DEN OVER 238.5
Scheduling situation, Makinen bettors ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OVER

– SACRAMENTO (+4 vs. BOS)
Scheduling situation and two Makinen ratings projections favor SAC and two extreme stats systems fade BOS

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 127-129 SU but 133-108-5 ATS (55.2%), including 93-57-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 at NOP)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 43-22 SU and 42-22-1 ATS (65.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
Systems Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4 vs. BOS)

* INDIANA is 13-2 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 4th Straight Home games
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 vs. MIN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER, PHOENIX, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BROOKLYN ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, DENVER ML, PHOENIX ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-WSH, MIN-IND, MIL-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-WSH, PHI-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAL-ORL, DAL-BKN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 155-101 SU but 112-141-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 83-45 SU but 59-68-1 ATS (46.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* PHOENIX is 24-18 SU but 15-25-2 ATS in its last 42 3rd Straight Home games
3/24: Fade PHOENIX vs. Milwaukee
Systems/Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs. MIL)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 90-48 SU and 78-55-5 ATS (58.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 43-22 SU and 42-22-1 ATS (65.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/24: SACRAMENTO vs. Boston
Systems Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4 vs. BOS)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 33-39 SU and 27-43-2 ATS (38.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/24: FADE DENVER vs. Chicago
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-3 vs. CHI)

* INDIANA is 13-2 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 4th Straight Home games
3/24: INDIANA vs. Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 vs. MIN)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 4-18 SU and 2-19-1 ATS skid when playing a 4th Straight Road game
* MILWAUKEE is on a 53-47 SU and 40-57-3 ATS skid in the last 100 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/24: Fade MILWAUKEE at Phoenix
Trends Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+2.5 at PHX)

* Over the total was 102-87 (54%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/24: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-NEW ORLEANS
3/24: Over the total in BOSTON-SACRAMENTO
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-NOP (o/u at 231.5), BOS-SAC (o/u at 222)

* Over the total was 62-53 (53.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/24: Over the total in WASHINGTON-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-WSH (o/u at 228)

* Over the total is 43-29 (59.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/24: Over the total in DENVER-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-DEN (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 108-75 SU and 109-71-3 ATS (60.6%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 at WSH)
*ALSO monitor PHI at NOP, +5.5 currently

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 150-90 SU but 109-127-4 ATS (46.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 92-112 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at ORL), NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs. PHI)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 127-129 SU but 133-108-5 ATS (55.2%), including 93-57-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 at NOP)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 146-55 SU and 118-81-2 ATS (59.3%) in their last 201 tries.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (*if they become favored at WSH, +1.5 currently)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 306-259 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-NOP (o/u at 231.5), DAL-BKN (o/u at 217.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 283-301 SU and 258-318-8 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs PHI)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 325-293 SU but 280-319-17 ATS (46.7%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs. PHI), BOSTON (-4 at SAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 161-175 SU and 152-175-9 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-4 at SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+1.6)
2(tie). CHICAGO +3 (+1.2)
SACRAMENTO +4 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -1 (+1.4)
2. INDIANA -2.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +3.5 (+3.3)
2. CHICAGO +3 (+1.9)
3. DALLAS +1 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+1.0)
2. PHOENIX -2.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-ORL OVER 214 (+5.0)
2. MIN-IND OVER 229 (+1.5)
3. TOR-WSH OVER 228 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-SAC UNDER 222 (-1.0)
2. PHI-NOP UNDER 231 (-0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +4 (+1.8)
2(tie). ORLANDO +3.5 (+1.1)
DALLAS +1 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA -2.5 (+2.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-DEN OVER 238.5 (+3.0)
2. DAL-BKN OVER 217.5 (+1.6)
3. LAL-ORL OVER 214 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-SAC UNDER 222 (-2.4)
2(tie). MIN-IND UNDER 229 (-1.4)
PHI-NOP UNDER 231 (-1.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(547) TORONTO at (548) WASHINGTON
* TORONTO is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Washington
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO

(549) LA LAKERS at (550) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 7-8 SU but 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the LAL-ORL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(551) MINNESOTA at (552) INDIANA
* MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games at Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(553) DALLAS at (554) BROOKLYN
* Favorites are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the DAL-BKN head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN

(555) PHILADELPHIA at (556) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 10-3-2 ATS in the last 15 games versus Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(557) CHICAGO at (558) DENVER
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine games when Denver hosts Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(559) MILWAUKEE at (560) PHOENIX
* Favorites are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the MIL-PHX head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

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