The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 31, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 65-53-2 (55.1%). Here are today’s results:

 

– CHI-OKC OVER 238.5
OKC scheduling trend and team strength system #5 both favor Over 

– LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs. HOU)
DK Betting Splits system #4 and team strength system #1 both favor LAL + scheduling situation and extreme stat system #12 both fade HOU 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 90-49 SU and 78-56-5 ATS (58.2%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs. LAC)

* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 73-18 SU and 51-37-3 ATS (58%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 at WSH)

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 113-77 SU and 114-73-3 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, MIAMI, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, INDIANA, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons, but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CHARLOTTE ML, INDIANA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, DALLAS ML, LA LAKERS ML

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-CHA, MIA-WSH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-ORL, BKN-DAL
UNDER – UTA-CHA, MIA-WSH

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 90-49 SU and 78-56-5 ATS (58.2%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the the last two seasons.
3/31: ORLANDO vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs. LAC) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 23-27 SU and 17-33 ATS skid in its last 50 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/31: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at ORL) 

* HOUSTON is 14-33 SU and 17-30 ATS in its last 47 3rd Straight Road games
3/31: Fade HOUSTON at LA Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+4.5 at LAL)

* Over the total was 102-89 (53.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/31: Over the total in HOUSTON-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-LAL (o/u at 223.5) 

* Over the total was 31-19 (62%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
3/31: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-UTAH
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CHA (o/u at 218.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-11 OVER the total in its last 37 3rd Straight Home games
3/31: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-OKC (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-53 SU and 120-80-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs. HOU) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 113-77 SU and 114-73-3 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 257-46 SU but just 141-156-6 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 vs. CHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 107-88 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 219-169 (56.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 274-212 (56.4%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-OKC (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 298-227 SU but 236-274-15 ATS (46.3%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs. LAC) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 289-303 SU and 265-319-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+4.5 at LAL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 329-295 SU but 283-322-17 ATS (46.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8.5 at WSH)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 163-177 SU and 153-178-9 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8.5 at WSH)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 39-13 SU and 35-15-2 ATS (70%) in their last 52 tries.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (*if they become favored at CHA, +1.5 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 121-22 SU but 61-79-3 ATS (43.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 vs. CHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 73-18 SU and 51-37-3 ATS (58%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 at WSH) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 250-301-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-5 at MEM), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 vs. CHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 59-83-1 ATS (41.5%) in the next game, including 27-41 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-5 at MEM), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 vs. CHI)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+3.8)
2. UTAH +1.5 (+2.4)
3. MEMPHIS +5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -8.5 (+1.1)
2. MIAMI -9 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+4.8)
2. MEMPHIS +5 (+2.8)
3. UTAH +1.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -8.5 (+0.9)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-WSH OVER 215.5 (+5.2)
2. BKN-DAL OVER 217.5 (+3.5)
3. SAC-IND OVER 233 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-MEM UNDER 236 (-1.3)
2. CHI-OKC UNDER 238.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+4.2)
2. UTAH +1.5 (+3.3)
3. MEMPHIS +5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -8.5 (+2.4)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-CHA OVER 218.5 (+7.1)
2. MIA-WSH OVER 215.5 (+5.5)
3. BKN-DAL OVER 217.5 (+4.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAC-IND UNDER 233 (-0.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) UTAH at (502) CHARLOTTE
* UTAH is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six visits to Charlotte (Over the total is 5-0 in their five wins as well)
Trends Match: PLAY UTAH ATS and OVER the total 

(503) LA CLIPPERS at (504) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 10-1-2 in the last 13 of the LAC-ORL head-to-head cross-country series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(505) SACRAMENTO at (506) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine of the SAC-IND head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS 

(509) BOSTON at (510) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the BOS-MEM head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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