The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* OKLAHOMA CITY has covered six straight ATS when hosting LAC
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. LAC)

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 94-61 SU and 91-61-3 ATS (59.9%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, WASHINGTON 

-Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 51-83 SU and 55-75-4 ATS (42.3%) slide, including 26-44-2 ATS in the last 72 games and 17-31 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-1 at SAS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, BROOKLYN, WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, WASHINGTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, WASHINGTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – OKLAHOMA CITY ML, HOUSTON ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on HANDLE for +30 units, a ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND ML 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WSH-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-OKC, BKN-NOP 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 135-91 SU BUT 100-123-3 ATS (44.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
11/11: FADE NEW ORLEANS vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs. BKN)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 56-40 SU BUT 41-55 ATS (42.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
11/11: FADE NEW ORLEANS vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs. BKN)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 66-33 SU and 58-37-4 ATS (61%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/11: SAN ANTONIO vs. Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+1 vs SAC) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 23-17 SU and 25-14-1 ATS (64.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/11: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. La Clippers
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs LAC) 

* Under the total was 102-70-1 (59.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/11: UNDER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-OKC (o/u at 218.5) 

* Over the total was 80-64 (55.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/11: OVER the total in WASHINGTON-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-HOU (o/u at 227.5)

11/11: OVER the total in SACRAMENTO-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-SAS (o/u at 221) 

* Over the total was 30-22 (57.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
11/11: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-NOP (o/u at 211)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 14-22 SU and 7-29 ATS skid since the start of last season playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/11: FADE LA CLIPPERS at Oklahoma City
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+6.5 at OKC) 

* WASHINGTON is on 10-6 SU and 12-3 ATS run on the ROAD in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
11/11: WASHINGTON at Houston
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at HOU) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-6 OVER the total in its L26 3rd Straight Home games
11/11: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-OKC (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on some team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 133-47 SU and 109-70-1 ATS (60.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs. LAC) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 94-61 SU and 91-61-3 ATS (59.9%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 182-33 SU but just 97-115-3 ATS (45.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-13.5 vs. WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 86-72 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-139 (53.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-162 (58.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-HOU (o/u at 227.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 51-83 SU and 55-75-4 ATS (42.3%) slide, including 26-44-2 ATS in the last 72 games and 17-31 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-1 at SAS) 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-48 SU and 111-69-2 ATS (61.7%) in their last 182 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (*if they become favorites vs. BKN, +1.5 currently)

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 241-129 SU but just 157-202-11 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-13.5 vs. WSH) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 151-57 SU and 115-90-3 ATS (56.1%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs. LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 54-15 SU and 42-25-2 ATS (62.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 at CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (165-183 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-215 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs. BKN), SLIGHT PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 at HOU) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 197-244-1 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-8 at CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-64-1 ATS (41.8%) in the next game, including 21-34 ATS (38.2%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-8 at CHI) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +8 (+1.4)
2. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+1.0)
3. SAN ANTONIO +1 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+1.0)
2. HOUSTON -13 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +7 (+3.1)
2. CHICAGO +8 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+5.8)
2. HOUSTON -13 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-OKC OVER 218.5 (+2.3)
2. BKN-NOP OVER 211 (+1.1)
3. SAC-SAS OVER 221 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-HOU UNDER 228 (-1.7)
2. CLE-CHI UNDER 237.5 (-1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +8 (+2.9)
2. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+2.7)
3. LA CLIPPERS +7 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -1 (+1.0)
2. HOUSTON -13 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-NOP OVER 211 (+3.8)
2. SAC-SAS OVER 221 (+3.5)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-HOU UNDER 228 (-2.0)
2. LAC-OKC UNDER 218.5 (-0.6)
3. CLE-CHI UNDER 237.5 (-0.2) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(523) LA CLIPPERS at (524) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY has covered six straight ATS when hosting LAC
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(527) WASHINGTON at (528) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 5-1 ATS in their nonconference series with WSH since 2022
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(531) SACRAMENTO at (532) SAN ANTONIO
* ROAD TEAMS have covered ATS in all six meetings between SAC and SAS since 2023
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

* OVER the total is 6-1 in the last seven overall SAC-SAS meetings
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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