The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-57 SU and 89-59-2 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. LAL)

Under the total was 16-3 (84.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAC, MIA-ORL, POR-SAS 

Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 16-30 SU and 15-30-1 ATS (33.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs. WSH)

MINNESOTA is on an extended 10-3 ATS surge when hosting Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. GSW)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, NEW YORK, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – SACRAMENTO ML, ORLANDO ML, CLEVELAND ML, MILWAUKEE ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DALLAS ML, PHOENIX ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO ML, ORLANDO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ORL, MEM-ATL, WSH-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – MEM-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-MIN
UNDER – MIA-ORL 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 78-52 SU and 72-55-3 ATS (56.7%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, BROOKLYN, CHICAGO, PHOENIX, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, SACRAMENTO, ATLANTA, SAN ANTONIO 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 51-39 SU and 50-37-3 ATS (57.5%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, BROOKLYN, CHICAGO, PHOENIX, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, SACRAMENTO, ATLANTA, SAN ANTONIO, ORLANDO

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 15-8 SU and ATS (65.2%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, BROOKLYN 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 16-30 SU and 15-30-1 ATS (33.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE 

* Over the total was 49-40 (55.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ORL (o/u at 207.5) 

* Under the total was 44-18 (71%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ORL, UTA-BKN, NYK-NOP, POR-SAS, LAL-SAC, BOS-CHI, DET-PHX, GSW-MIN, LAC-DAL, MEM-ATL

* Over the total is 30-16 (65.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-MIL (o/u at 223)

* Under the total was 82-48 (63.1%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 12 games today 

* Under the total was on a 46-14 (76.7%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 12 games today 

* Under the total was 47-31 (60.3%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all games today except WSH-MIL 

* Under the total was 23-8 (74.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAC, MIA-ORL, POR-SAS

* Under the total was 16-3 (84.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAC, MIA-ORL, POR-SAS 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 38-54 SU and 35-57 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+3 at MIN) 

* UTAH is 12-18 SU but 21-9 ATS in its last 30 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 at BKN)

* WASHINGTON is on 2-16 SU and 6-12 ATS skid when playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at MIL) 

* UTAH is on a 42-20 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-BKN (o/u at 220.5)  

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 168-143 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 237-181 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-CLE (o/u at 220.5), WSH-MIL (o/u at 223), BOS-CHI (o/u at 242.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 210-123 SU but 149-178-6 ATS (45.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-1.5 at ATL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 263-205 SU but 204-252-12 ATS (44.7%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+12.5 vs. BOS)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-57 SU and 89-59-2 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. LAL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 249-267 SU and 227-283-6 ATS (44.5%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+2.5 at BKN), MEMPHIS (-1.5 at ATL) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 272-257 SU and 234-282-11 ATS (45.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+2.5 at BKN), MEMPHIS (-1.5 at ATL), NEW YORK (-8 at NOP), CLEVELAND (-11 vs PHI)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 138-163 SU and 134-160-7 ATS (45.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+2.5 at BKN), MEMPHIS (-1.5 at ATL), NEW YORK (-8 at NOP) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 129-95 SU and 125-94-5 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-1.5 at ATL) 

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 168-62 SU and 125-102-3 ATS (55.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. GSW), MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs. WSH)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+4.1)
2. CHICAGO +12.5 (+3.3)
3. DETROIT +6 (+2.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -11 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +8 (+3.3)
2(tie). GOLDEN STATE +3 (+2.4)
DETROIT +6 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -7 (+1.4)
2. BROOKLYN -2.5 (+0.3)
3. DALLAS -3.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-MIL OVER 223 (+3.7)
2. BOS-CHI OVER 242.5 (+2.6)
3. MEM-ATL OVER 242.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-MIN UNDER 214.5 (-4.0)
2. MIA-ORL UNDER 208 (-3.7)
3. LAC-DAL UNDER 221 (-1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+5.5)
2. MIAMI +3.5 (+1.8)
3. CHICAGO +12.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -11 (+1.5)
2. MINNESOTA -3 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-MIL OVER 223 (+2.9)
2. DET-PHX OVER 224.5 (+2.5)
3. POR-SAS OVER 226 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-ORL UNDER 208 (-3.8)
2. BOS-CHI UNDER 242.5 (-1.7)
3. LAL-SAC UNDER 228.5 (-0.8) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(503) MIAMI at (504) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the MIA-ORL in-state rivalry in Orlando
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(507) UTAH at (508) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs have covered five straight ATS in the UTA-BKN nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS 

(509) NEW YORK at (510) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 5-1 ATS in all six matchups between NYK and NOP since 2022
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(511) GOLDEN STATE at (512) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is on an extended 10-3 ATS surge when hosting GSW
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS 

(513) PHILADELPHIA at (514) CLEVELAND
* PHILADELPHIA has covered six of the last seven games versus Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the PHI-CLE series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(515) WASHINGTON at (516) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total has converted in five straight matchups between WSH and MIL
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(519) PORTLAND at (520) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites have covered five of the last six meetings in San Antonio
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(521) LA CLIPPERS at (522) DALLAS
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the LAC-DAL series in Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

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