The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is on an extended 18-3 run in the last 21 games of the Dallas-Portland series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5) 

* NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 168-141 SU and 171-129-9 ATS (57%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4 vs MIL) 

* Over the total was 14-5 (73.7%) last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-DEN (o/u at 234.5) 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 67-76 SU and 79-62-3 ATS (56%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+1.5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW YORK, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – ATLANTA ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA ML, MILWAUKEE ML, PHOENIX ML, SACRAMENTO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%, while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, NEW YORK ML 

These last four NBA betting trends involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ATL, NYK-WSH, PHX-GSW, PHI-UTA, DAL-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYK-WSH, DET-DEN, PHI-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-CHA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-UTA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 37-38 SU and 43-31-1 ATS (58.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
12/28: DENVER vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs DET) 

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 20-17 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
12/28: DENVER vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. DET)

* Over the total was 86-59 (59.3%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on an H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
12/28: Over the total in DENVER-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-DEN (o/u at 234.5)

* Over the total was 14-5 (73.7%) last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
12/28: Over the total in DENVER-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-DEN (o/u at 234.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 32-77 SU and 42-64-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
12/28: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Oklahoma City
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs. OKC) 

* DALLAS is 11-3 SU and 13-1 ATS since the start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
12/28: DALLAS at Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-5 at POR) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 36-37 SU and 25-47-1 ATS skid in the last 73 when playing on standard One Day Rest
12/28: Fade MILWAUKEE at Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-4 at CHI)

* NEW YORK is on 24-20 SU and 29-15 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
12/28: NEW YORK at Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-13 at WSH) 

* PORTLAND is 26-62 SU and 32-56 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
12/28: Fade PORTLAND vs. Dallas
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+5 vs. DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 193-36 SU but just 106-119-4 ATS (47.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-143 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 239-183 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-CHA (o/u at 219), NYK-WSH (o/u at 227) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 213-123 SU but 151-179-6 ATS (45.8%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-2 vs. MIA)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 137-82 SU but 97-118-4 ATS (45.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 83-105 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. DET)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 59-36 (62.1%) in their last 95 tries. (PHI 12/28)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-UTA (o/u at 224) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 253-267 SU and 230-284-6 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+2 at ATL), CHICAGO (+4 vs. MIL), UTAH (+6.5 vs. PHI) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 280-257 SU and 241-283-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+4 vs. MIL), UTAH (+6.5 vs. PHI)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 168-141 SU and 171-129-9 ATS (57%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4 vs. MIL) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 170-63 SU and 125-105-3 ATS (54.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 at UTA), DENVER (-5.5 vs. DET) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-62 SU but 50-42 ATS (54.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs. OKC)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 61-16 SU and 44-31-2 ATS (58.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-13 at WSH), OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at CHA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 67-76 SU and 79-62-3 ATS (56%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+1.5 at LAL) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5 (+1.6)
2. CHICAGO +4 (+1.2)
3. MIAMI +2 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -13 (+1.5)
2. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+0.4)
3. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +2 (+0.7)
2. CHICAGO +4 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -13 (+5.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+2.1)
3. GOLDEN STATE -6.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-WSH OVER 227 (+5.1)
2. DAL-POR OVER 222.5 (+1.2)
3. PHI-UTA OVER 224 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-GSW UNDER 220 (-4.0)
2. OKC-CHA UNDER 219 (-3.9)
3. MIL-CHI UNDER 231.5 (-2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5 (+1.4)
2. MIAMI +2 (+0.6)
3. CHICAGO +4 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+1.1)
2. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+1.0)
3. NEW YORK -13 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-WSH OVER 227 (+5.0)
2. DAL-POR OVER 222.5 (+2.3)
3. MIA-ATL OVER 226 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-CHA UNDER 219 (-3.3)
2(tie). MIL-CHI UNDER 231.5 (-2.5)
PHX-GSW UNDER 220 (-2.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(537) OKLAHOMA CITY at (538) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games versus OKC
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS 

(539) NEW YORK at (540) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the NYK-WSH series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

* Under the total is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games when WSH hosts NYK
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(541) MILWAUKEE at (542) CHICAGO
* MILWAUKEE is 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS 

(543) PHOENIX at (544) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are on an extended 13-3 ATS run in the PHX-GSW  divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(549) DALLAS at (550) PORTLAND
* Over the total is on an extended 18-3 run in the DAL-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

* Favorites are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the DAL-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

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