The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

OKLAHOMA CITY has won 11 straight ATS when visiting New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 at NOP) 

Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 60-16 SU and 44-30-2 ATS (59.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-8.5 at TOR)

In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 139-47 SU and 112-73-1 ATS (60.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 vs MEM)

NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 165-139 SU and 169-126-9 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. CLE), MIAMI (-6 v.s PHX)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER, DALLAS, MEMPHIS, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, DALLAS, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW YORK 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, DENVER ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-CHA, DEN-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-TOR, DET-NYK, MEM-BOS
UNDER – DEN-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Underbettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WSH 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* UNDER the total was 107-76-1 (58.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/7: UNDER the total in BOSTON-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-BOS (o/u at 239) 

* CHARLOTTE is 32-76 SU and 42-63-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
12/7: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Cleveland
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. CLE)

* TORONTO is on a 31-15 SU and 29-17 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
12/7: TORONTO vs. Dallas
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+8.5 vs. DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 139-47 SU and 112-73-1 ATS (60.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 vs MEM) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 188-35 SU but just 103-117-3 ATS (46.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-14 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 165-143 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 235-173 (57.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-CHA (o/u at 218.5), DEN-WSH (o/u at 233) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 206-121 SU but 146-175-6 ATS (45.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-8.5 at TOR)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 259-204 SU but 200-251-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last aix seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-6 vs. PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 246-261 SU and 225-276-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+9.5 at NYK), DALLAS (-8.5 at TOR), MIAMI (-6 vs. PHX), NEW YORK (-9.5 vs. DET)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 266-251 SU and 231-273-11 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-13 at CHA), DETROIT (+9.5 at NYK), DALLAS (-8.5 at TOR), MIAMI (-6 vs PHX)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 134-161 SU and 132-156-7 ATS (45.8%) in that next contest over the last 6 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-13 at CHA), DETROIT (+9.5 at NYK), DALLAS (-8.5 at TOR) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 165-139 SU and 169-126-9 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs CLE), MIAMI (-6 vs PHX)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 127-94 SU and 124-93-4 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 at NOP)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 165-60 SU and 124-98-3 ATS (55.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-14 at WSH) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams that have winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 99-17 SU but 51-63-3 ATS (44.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (*if they become double-digit favorites vs. DET, -9.5 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 60-16 SU and 44-30-2 ATS (59.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-8.5 at TOR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 204-255-2 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-115 SU and 59-78-4 ATS (43.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. CLE), WASHINGTON (+14 v.s DEN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHOENIX +6 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -13.5 (+3.0)
2. NEW YORK -9 (+1.4)
3. DALLAS -8.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+3.1)
2. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+2.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -13 (+3.5)
2. NEW YORK -9 (+1.3)
3. DALLAS -8.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-MIA OVER 222.5 (+1.4)
2. DET-NYK OVER 226 (+0.3)
3. DAL-TOR OVER 236 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-NOP UNDER 225 (-1.2)
2. MEM-BOS UNDER 239 (-0.9)
3. CLE-CHA UNDER 218.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHOENIX +6 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -13.5 (+5.0)
2. CLEVELAND -13 (+2.1)
3. BOSTON -6.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-NYK OVER 226 (+2.3)
2. CLE-CHA OVER 218.5 (+1.1)
3. PHX-MIA OVER 222.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-NOP UNDER 225 (-3.6)
2. MEM-BOS UNDER 239 (-1.9)
3. DEN-WSH UNDER 233.5 (-1.3) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(565) CLEVELAND at (566) CHARLOTTE
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the CLE-CHA series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(567) OKLAHOMA CITY at (568) NEW ORLEANS
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won 11 straight ATS when visiting New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(569) DENVER at (570) WASHINGTON
* DENVER has won five of the last six ATS in nonconference series with WSH
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(573) DETROIT at (574) NEW YORK
* Road teams have covered six of the last seven meetings between DET and NYK
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(575) MEMPHIS at (576) BOSTON
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the MEM-BOS series
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(577) PHOENIX at (578) MIAMI
* PHOENIX has covered five straight ATS when visiting Miami
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

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