The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, February 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

– SAN ANTONIO (-2 vs. MIA)
Two DK betting splits systems favor San Antonio

– CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. DEN)
Multiple scheduling situations favor Charlotte (a couple fade Denver as well)

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 13-2 in the last 15 of the Atlanta-Indiana series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in ATL-IND (o/u at 241)

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 143-97 SU and 136-97-7 ATS (58.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+11 at NYK) 

* Under the total was 14-2 (87.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-SAS (o/u at 222) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation,  when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): DENVER ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-HOU, MIA-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-UTA
UNDER – BKN-HOU

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 146-98 SU but 106-135-3 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/1: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Sacramento
2/1: FADE INDIANA vs. Atlanta
2/1: FADE NEW YORK vs. La Lakers
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. SAC), INDIANA (-8 vs. ATL), NEW YORK (-11 vs. LAL)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 80-59 SU and 74-62-3 ATS (54.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
2/1: INDIANA vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-8 vs. ATL) 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 78-44 SU but 55-66-1 ATS (45.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/1: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Sacramento
2/1: Fade NEW YORK vs. La Lakers
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. SAC), NEW YORK (-11 vs. LAL) 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 77-39 SU and 67-44-5 ATS (60.4%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
2/1: PORTLAND vs. Phoenix
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. DEN), PORTLAND (+4 vs. PHX) 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 41-23 SU but 27-36-1 ATS (42.9%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
2/1: Fade NEW YORK vs. La Lakers
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-11 vs. LAL)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 30-39 SU but 40-28-3 ATS (58.8%) facing hosts playing a 3rdHomein4Days game over the last four seasons.
2/1: DENVER at Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-13 at CHA)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 41-41 SU and 46-34-2 ATS (57.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. DEN) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 35-19 SU and 35-18-1 ATS (66%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
2/1: PORTLAND vs. Phoenix
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. DEN), PORTLAND (+4 vs. PHX) 

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 22-20 SU and 25-17 ATS (59.5%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs. DEN) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 33-22 SU and 31-21-3 ATS (59.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs DEN) 

* Over the total was 92-73 (55.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/1: Over the total in DENVER-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-CHA (o/u at 222.5)

* Over the total was 89-63 (58.6%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/1: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-CHA (o/u at 222.5)

* Over the total was 42-29 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/1: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-CHA (o/u at 222.5) 

* Under the total was 14-2 (87.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
2/1: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-SAS (o/u at 222) 

* Under the total is on a 64-26-1 (71.1%) in the last 91 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a OneDayRest game.
2/1: Under the total in INDIANA-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-IND (o/u at 240.5) 

* Over the total was 17-7 (70.8%) since the start of last season when the home team was on an H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/1: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-CHA (o/u at 222.5)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* DENVER is on a 3-14 ATS skid (9-8 SU), playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
2/1: FADE DENVER at Charlotte
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-13 at CHA) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-19 SU and 30-18-2 ATS in its last 50 games playing on 2 Days Rest
2/1: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. SAC) 

* ORLANDO is on a 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
2/1: ORLANDO at Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 at UTA) 

* PORTLAND is 29-67 SU and 36-60 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
2/1: FADE PORTLAND vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+4 vs PHX) 

* WASHINGTON is on 10-13 SU but 14-8 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
2/1: WASHINGTON at Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIN) 

* NEW YORK is 23-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
2/1: Under the total in NEW YORK-LA LAKERS
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-NYK (o/u at 224.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 220-38 SU but just 122-131-5 ATS (48.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-13 at CHA), MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs. WSH), HOUSTON (-14.5 vs. BKN), NEW YORK (-11 vs. LAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, the Under total has gone from 96-80 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 186-157 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 252-195 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DEN-CHA (o/u at 222.5), WSH-MIN (o/u at 221.5), BKN-HOU (o/u at 212.5), LAL-NYK (o/u at 224.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 224-127 SU but 159-185-7 ATS (46.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-13 at CHA), MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs. WSH), SAN ANTONIO (-2 vs. MIA)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 69-53 SU and 66-54-2 ATS (55%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-8 vs ATL)

Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 142-53 SU and 116-77-2 ATS (60.1%) in their last 195 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 at UTA) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 257-135 SU but just 170-210-12 ATS (44.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-13 at CHA) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 275-217 SU but 213-265-14 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 38-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-2 vs. MIA), PORTLAND (+4 vs. PHX) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 267-276 SU and 242-294-7 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-8 vs. ATL), DENVER (-13 at CHA), MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs. WSH)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 295-270 SU but 252-296-15 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs. WSH), SAN ANTONIO (-2 vs. MIA)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest, going 143-97 SU and 136-97-7 ATS (58.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+11 at NYK) 

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 178-67 SU and 132-110-3 ATS (54.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-13 at CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 31-68 SU but 53-46 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 105-17 SU but 54-66-3 ATS (45%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs WSH), NEW YORK (-11 vs LAL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 70-82 SU but 84-66-3 ATS (56%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+8 at IND) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 223-276-3 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 28-127 SU and 65-85-5 ATS (43.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+8 at IND), UTAH (+6 vs ORL), WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIN) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +13 (+1.1)
2. ATLANTA +8.5 (+0.7)
3. PORTLAND +4 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -15.5 (+1.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2 (+1.5)
3. ORLANDO -5.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+2.5)
2. ATLANTA +8.5 (+2.3)
3. LA LAKERS +11 (+2.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -15.5 (+1.4)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2 (+0.6)
3. DENVER -13 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-CHA OVER 223 (+5.9)
2. ORL-UTA OVER 218 (+1.8)
3. PHX-POR OVER 227.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-IND UNDER 241 (-1.1)
2(tie). SAC-OKC UNDER 236.5 (-0.6)
LAL-NYK UNDER 224.5 (-0.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +8.5 (+1.30

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -2 (+1.4)
2. MINNESOTA -15.5 (+1.2)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-CHA OVER 223 (+9.0)
2. MIA-SAS OVER 222 (+3.3)
3. PHX-POR OVER 227.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-IND UNDER 241 (-1.9)
2. LAL-NYK UNDER 224.5 (-1.0)
3. SAC-OKC UNDER 236.5 (-0.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(547) ATLANTA at (548) INDIANA
* Over the total is 13-2 in the last 15 of the ATL-IND series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* INDIANA is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA 

(551) DENVER at (552) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total has converted in six straight meetings between DEN and CHA
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(553) SACRAMENTO at (554) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 12-2 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 of the SAC-OKC series
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(555) WASHINGTON at (556) MINNESOTA
* WASHINGTON is on runs of 11-2 ATS overall versus MIN and 7-0 when visiting Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

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